An eye on the competition - how do they fare?

Enough has been said about the Twente game. We all know what was bad and why but we also saw a good defence. We can assume to a reasonable extent that we will qualify so let's look at the Premiership challengers.

Let's start with the Champions. United won the treble by sheer determination and by not giving up. If you win the biggest trophy in club football and crown it with two other trophies by determination and hanging in there till the last minute, then it gets etched into the DNA of the club. Manchester United still have that as long as Alex Ferguson remains in charge.

United are a counter-attacking team with a good range of passing. Last year, Ronaldo could move the ball 60-yards at high-speed without needing anyone else. Most counter-attacking teams would have to use 3 or 4 players to achieve the same effect. United's central midfield therefore rarely had to expose themselves in counter attacks. This contributed to United's superior defensive record. Their midfielders are in a much better position than most to protect their defence because Ronaldo's prowess prevents them from over-committing in attacking. Ronaldo is so direct that it gives United shape. When Touré miscued his header against Ajax, no Arsenal midfielder mopped it up and Suarez scored from a tiny mistake. That rarely happens when United defenders make a mistake.

If you look at the Ronaldo's goals that had a direct effect on the result you will see he gained 18 points last season for United and United rarely won without him. Point here being that a lot about how United will do this season is down to how well Ronaldo does, how committed he is and how fit he stays. One cannot discount Tevez and Rooney of course. However, I don't believe United is the team for Tevez. He may do well at United but I think he will be performing rather than excelling (achieving his full potential). Rooney is a great player but I'm sometimes wondering if we have seen the best of him – he may not be going downhill but is there much uphill left for Rooney?

One other possible effect on United this season could be the departure of Carlos Quieroz. Quieroz has been crucial to United in this more competitive new age of football where only determination and good old English desire is not enough. He is has been crucial in updating their play and identifying recruits. After his last departure, United won nothing. I expect it to have some tactical impact on them.

United's first team is unlikely to change this season maybe with a possible exception of Anderson playing more and maybe Berbatov? We know that team pretty well and we know they are beatable as proved many times last season.

Conclusion: I don't expect them to be any stronger this season than last even after conquering Europe. The margins last year were very small and everyone knows it so there are no huge psychological advantages here. They had hardly any injuries and better luck when it mattered. Ronaldo was top form, Quieroz was there. A lot will have to improve elsewhere at United to maintain the level they had last year.

On to Chelsea. I watched Chelsea against Milan and Locomotive. Mourinho ripped the football heart out of many Chelsea players. Chelsea are just learning how to play football again. It is obvious that Scolari is trying to get Ashley Cole to play again like he did at Arsenal – like a Brazilian wing-back.

Jon Obi-Mikel was the most promising player of his generation. A classy player that could be world class like Fabregas had he joined a club that paid attention to developing players rather than a blinkered focus on winning. Robben, Wright-Phillips and a host of young players have had their development impacted by joining Chelsea. It should really be a warning to young players. Go where people will focus on your development instead of immediate performance.

But Chelsea will play better under Scolari? In fact the biggest plus to Chelsea this season is the "new manager effect" like Ramos and Benitez had on Liverpool in their first season. And it's not just any manager but Big Phil himself. How long will the transition take to Scolari-type football and will Chelsea suffer while that is going on?

Oddly enough, I think Chelsea will do okay during their transition because of one big reason. Chelsea are full of goal-scorers. Anelka, Ballack, Lampard, Cole, Drogba, Essien, Malouda, Kalou and even Terry and Carvalho from headers. Here is a team that under normal organisation is able to find a goal almost always and can defend. Scolari bought Deco whom some people think is past it – I don't think so. Deco is a clever buy and he will help feed those scorers and score goals himself. Deco will also help Scolari establish good football at Chelsea.

Will Deco adjust to the Premiership? Yes, I think so because he is one of the best ball protectors in the business and one of the best at getting free-kicks. You usually give away a free-kick if you get the ball from him and that will protect him against a fast moving Premiership – that of course depends on the generosity of the British referees.

Conclusion? Chelsea will be stronger than last season. They are very serious contenders.

As for Liverpool, one has to assume that after four years, this is now much more Rafael Benitez team. In other words this team should reflect the manager's potential more than any other. Benitez has been trying to reduce Liverpool's reliance on Gerrard as he slowly gets over his peak and my view is that he went a long way with that last season. Torres became the big figure last season but Benitez spent £18M cleverly this season to spread the load between Torres and Keane but also crucially to allow the attack to make combinations by themselves without midfield if for some reason midfield is not working.

Obviously, nobody knows how well Torres and Keane will click but if they do, we should expect better from Liverpool this year. Against Liege it didn't look great but it is too early to judge. A key advantage of a powerful attack is that it relieves the defence. Good attacks often lead to reduction in goals conceded so this might also work in Liverpool's favour. In addition when Torres is injured Keane can be a threat. Overall Benitez has balanced his team and has normalised it so they don't crumble quite so often when one player is missing. The big question is how the new players click on the pitch.

Conclusion? I don't expect Liverpool to be weaker than last season. Liverpool are now quite a stable team and if Benitez ideas on paper work on the pitch, they could spring a surprise this season. But I don't think that is a big "if" either. I wont pay too much attention to the troubles they had last night in Belgium.

And now to our dear neighbours. The biggest thing Ramos has done is to sign a good goalkeeper in Heurelho Gomes. That should make a big difference to Spurs. Modric and Dos Santos are excellent signings too. Bentley is okay – I think Bentley works well in the kind of team ethic that was at Blackburn with Mark Hughes. I am not so convinced that he will be worth £17 million in the same way as Robbie Keane was worth £17 million to Spurs. Bentley was trained at Arsenal and aspects of European style football might still be left in him, we will have to wait and see but I think Bentley is far more effective under strict control than liberated even though most see him as a creative player. I would have spent that money on Morten Gamst Pedersen myself.

Spurs did great last season mainly due to the "new manager effect". New players, sulky Berbatov, higher expectations and more prepared opposition might make for a very difficult second season for Ramos. Second seasons for teams trying to break into the top 4 are usually more difficult after just making it the season before. Taking a step forward usually brings in more money and then more new players and then higher expectations and then pressure and soon instability if you can't cope with it. This will be a difficult season for Spurs in spite of some of the great players they have bought.

Conclusion? In spite of new signings, I believe it will be a difficult season for Spurs. It might end up being Everton, Portsmouth or Aston Villa.

I will not make prediction on positions. However, even with the departure of Mathieu Flamini and Alexander Hleb, I think Arsenal might be stronger this season for a number of reasons:

I think we have more goal scorers in Robin van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor, Carlos Vela, Nicklas Bendtner, Samir Nasri, Francesc Fabregas and I think Abou Diaby and Denilson will score more goals than Gilberto and Flamini managed last season.

I think Arsenal will have so much more variation this season because our strikers are not copies of each other. They are all very different and so are the midfielders. Each change has the potential to give Arsenal a fresh look in any game.

Walcott and Nasri are far more direct than Hleb and Eboue who played most of last season and Vela is a good mover in the penalty area – we haven't anyone for three years apart from the few games Eduardo played up front. In addition we could enjoy good width in our play as a result of having one proper winger.

Injured players are coming back – obviously this also means we have to hope not to get more injuries – I note that Fabregas and Adebayor have been very lucky and that luck won't last forever.

Fabregas has tasted victory with a trophy this summer and is hungry for more. Bacary Sagna, Gaël Clichy, van Persie and Adebayor probably feel they must really get a trophy now and have expressed it and lastly Gallas will want to win as captain before leaving Arsenal.

User Comments

arwa464

Posted on 18 Aug, 2008 at 08:09 AM - Reply

Fantastic article with more insight and honesty than the so-called experts. I swear real Arsenal fans are more intelligent and we can admit to our own team's weaknesses. This being said we once again face a new season with the 'hope' that we can do more than just play better soccer than everyone.

The first weekend of the Premiership showed every fan of every team what they face. Normally it takes about 10-15 games in but each team's personality came through loud and clear. Arsenal's did. As did Man U's whose performance backed Mr. Che's analysis as though he was their personal prophet.

Our concern is not the loss of Flamini or Hleb. Nasri will show up as a more incisive player than Hleb and nothing against Flamini but a defensive center midfielder is the easiest position to replace on the park. Denilson did an adequate job and to be fair to him let's give him some time. He's a much better passer than Flamini and while the popular speak on AC Milan's new signing was how much ground he covered or how hard he worked...I believe a fair bit of it was posturing. The best def center mid over the past decade has to be Makelele and he did it without breaking a sweat and without false bravado. Something I did not care for with Flamini.

Rotating Diaby in against the more physical teams, possibly signing a def mid and letting Denilson grow will put us in a better spot than most teams in regards to this position.

Gallas. That's the main concern. I love his athleticism and his fearlessness. But his temper is one of a selfish man and player. And that's not what allows this team to function at their full capacity. The fear of Henry's withering looks and comments held this team back and now it looks like Gallas has assumed the mantle of locker room bully. His reaction to Djourou's 'saving on the line' as though he was at fault for letting West Brom's Miller in said it all. No 'respnsible or accountable' central defender steps to play offside when he is on the side of the ball and unable to see his other defenders positioning. It was a cop out and I'm sure Wenger called him on it. Djourou did fantastic, especially as a young player, to call him on it. We all worry about the partnership of Toure and Gallas..and we should...as they are light years behind the relationships that Vidic/Ferdinand and Terry/Carvalho have for their teams. These four have won games for their teams. Our two do not win any for us but will cost us some expensive points in the long run.

One of the reasons Henry went from my fave to my 'can't stand him' column was because he used to work hard and then started standing around on the field. I felt I was witnessing too much standing around by our two young strikers in Adeboyer and Bendtner. Too early in their careers to do this. Maybe others don't feel that but there was never any pressure put on the back four of West Brom until they ventured to almost midfield. I couldn't imagine Rooney or Tevez hanging out like this. Yes, I understand how great Arsenal is at bringing a team out and then countering but there were obvious opportunities to put them under pressure in their own end that were avoided.

In early conclusion...I feel like we will operate under the radar until we hit December and then this team will be taken seriously. While outsiders do not believe in this team and even some of our own fans question the lack of movement in the offseason, I personally feel that 2nd place will come as a disappointment when May rolls around. I just don't know if we have the physical strength to stay with Chelsea. But if someone offered us this a month ago what would you have said?

Moe_dubai

Posted on 17 Aug, 2008 at 10:42 PM - Reply

just 3 words cana, cana cana please sign him Wenger

Gigi

Posted on 17 Aug, 2008 at 11:02 AM - Reply

I agree with most of the points but I would like to add one which is not in Arsenal's favour this season. At the beginning of last season Arsenal was totally written off and most teams did not pay Arsenal sufficient respect. As a result Arsenal's performance in the first half of the season surprised many opposing teams and led to many victories for Arsenal.

However, even for this season Arsenal is already being written off by the media, most opposing teams would not commit the same mistake of underestimating them. So I expect Arsenal to face greater opposition in the first half of this season, compared to the last.

Don

Posted on 16 Aug, 2008 at 09:16 AM - Reply

Some interesting comments. I could (& often do) talk all day about this one. My observations...

I believe Nasri will prove to be more like Hleb (with better finishing), both of whom are nowhere near as direct as Eboue.

On the teams you focus on...

Manchester United - I agree completely with your analysis. I do not necessarily see them as being stronger. Ronaldo will be missed. Rooney is not intelligent enough to tactically improve. I'm not convinced Berbatov will be a natural striker.

Chelsea - Again I agree. They have scorers literally across tha park and defend in numbers. As you mention, their only challenge is in adapting to Scolari's own brand of play.

Liverpool - completely unknow quantity. Rainieri used to be referred to as the Tinkerman. IMO, there is no bigger Tinkerman than Benitez and their huge squad could present them with more problems. Who is Liverpools best 11? I'll bet even Benitez hasn't a clue either.

S***s - They are undoubtedly stronger, which makes for an exciting double header of North London derbies, mixed in with the history of last year. Modric and Del Santos are fine fine players. Although I believe they are lacking in numbers up front.

And finally to Arsenal?? On balance I think we are stronger. All the players you mention have improved immensely from what I can see. We have some obvious challenges in midfield (more particularly) and I'm still not reassured with the central defence partnership. But I feel both areas will become a more solidified unit if AW can sign the 'right' kind of defensive midfielder before the transfer window closes. As per usual, I believe the doomongerers are overplaying the challenges we have in keeping pace with ManU and Chelsea.

Come on you gooners!!!

Zohaib

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 09:20 PM - Reply

good analysis on ManUtd's reliance on Ronaldo and their central midfield not over-committing and as a result a very efficient defense.
theyr probably getting another striker. whether its berbatov, huntelaar or another i duno. but they need someone of a similar build. good in the air. to give them the variety they lack up front. rooney will go back to his natural position as support striker and be more effective than he was last season. and their reliance on ronaldo will lessen. so by signing one striker theyl actually get one and a half players worth of strength in attack.
and if they get such a striker it'll be a very close finish to the title. if they don't and if scolari improves their attack, chelsea will be champions with a comfortable gap. they have 2 quality players for every position.
IF our season isnt plagued by injuries as it has been the past 2 seasons. we'll be giving chelsea and manutd a tough time throughout the season. but there is loads of room for improvement. we need to learn to defend better. communication b/w the 2 CBs needs to improve. djourou needs to improve so that we have 3 quality CBs (senderos will never get quicker and so is useless). we don't have good enough cover for our fullbacks if theyr injured. we need to be more efficient in our attacks. we miss too many chances. and in big matches we need to get goals out of the 50-50 chances to have a realistic chance of winning. and our midfield is too inexperienced. there is no balance. we only have rosicky who we can call an experienced midfielder. fabregas is still only 21 and is improving steadily. he lacks a couple of yards of pace. and needs a better partner. if we sign an experienced midfielder like wenger is hinting, we may fight for the title. if the signing doesn't work throughout the season we'll be struggling for 3rd/4th place with liverpool. the problem with arsenal is that we'r no longer the team that seemed like it had 12 or 13 players playing at one time. now it seems like we have 8 or 9.
the only way liverpool can fight for the title is if keane and torres remain uninjured throughout the season. they have 2 proper strikers now instead of 1. kuyt and voronin dont get the same number of goals. and they are 1 body too short in central midfield. lucas isnt special. if they get barry and keep alonso, then they look complete. babel needs to improve. and pennant can only provide crosses.
tottenham need to keep berbatov if they want to challenge for 4th place. if they lose him and get arshavin, they still wont make it. at present they only have 3 strikers and theyr looking to sell one and get another. they need to have at least 4 to be serious contenders for 4th place.

dean

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 09:19 PM - Reply

intresting let hope the boss can get a good player that has experiance

OG J0E

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 07:23 PM - Reply

Great article, much more balanced and thought-out than the one I would have written. I agree with you about Chelsea, they represent more of a threat than United, although I'm not sure about the quality of Heurelho Gomes, as he seems to be a poor-man's Lehmann, making some fantastic saves but also lots of mistakes and is a bit mad.

On the whole a good read. And now till tomorrow!

kapz gunner

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 07:04 PM - Reply

excellent review except for one thing.. Bentley is a good playa and he'll want to take revenge against us so he and modric will make a huge difference to Sp*ds... hope they dont though..

Swish

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 03:45 PM - Reply

Damn good write up, pretty much voiced most of my concearns and is very much a realistic take on the whole situation.

Whilst many Arsenal fans are complaining about the squad not improving over last season, many are missing the point that United, Chelsea and Liverpool haven't done too much to improve their squads either. However, on the other side of the coin you could argue that this is the perfect time to take advantage of that.

Krishna

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 10:35 AM - Reply

I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if Arsenal finish 2nd below Chelsea.

Bichwa

Posted on 15 Aug, 2008 at 10:28 AM - Reply

Good analysis. You should not underrate spurs, they will offer a great challeng to the league but is all to Gunners' advantage because that will steer them not to loose games easily with the fear of going down tyhe table. i'm sure that Gunners will be in top two this season although the team is so young. The only reason i see this is that the youngsters are enthusiastic and determined to proof their ability and trust confered on them by their Magical man Wenger. Let's wait and see but winning the premier this season will be very tough because of Chelsea and Liverpool.

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