Predictions for the season ahead: Top four finish safe for Arsenal

It's kind of annoying that the summer transfer window ends after the season already starts, as I really feel I ought to be writing a preview to the season right about now. But at the same time it feels impossible to tell how Arsenal in particular will fare this season, as so much depends on the futures of Nasri and Fabregas and whether or not we finally sign the tall defender Wenger promised.

So I'm just going to go ahead and make a few assumptions. I'm going to assume Arsenal won't make any more signings, Nasri and Cesc will be persuaded to stay for another year, and that only Bendtner will leave (the Eboue rumours just sound too good to be true).

I'm also going to assume that our main rivals have finished their spending for the summer, and that the only move of note will be that of Carlos Tevez away from Manchester City.

So, as it stands, Manchester United, the best of a bad bunch last season, have improved a lot with the signing of the summer Ashley Young. And despite losing van der Saar, Neville, Scholes, Brown and O'Shea, leaving them shorter of experience, particularly at the back, they look in decent shape with the return of promising youngsters Tom Cleverly and Danny Welbeck, who spent last season on loan at Wigan and Sunderland, respectively. Another key point is that presumably Wayne Rooney will not spend half of this season moping about, and will return to his best form. The presence also of the underrated Antonio Valencia, who missed most of last season through injury, will aid that.

The title is, quite simply, theirs to lose. They have the best blend of youth and experience, and above all they have the best manager, painful as it is to say it. They benefited more from referees last season than I've possibly ever seen before, so hopefully that blatant bias will have to be played down by refs more this season.

Chelsea have done nothing in the transfer market, but they have brought in a very talented new manager. I expect they will be United's biggest challengers, but with an ageing squad still pining for Mourinho, who brought them all together, I feel they will just fall short. Second seems likely again for them, but maybe this time with a cup or two to boot.

Despite all the hype, I am not convinced Man City are a better team now than they were last season. When they surely lose Tevez, their best player, it will be a big blow, and while Aguero is definitely quality, he might struggle to adapt like Ballotelli and Dzeko have before him. Elsewhere, they've taken the error-prone full back who can't shoot or cross, Gaël Clichy, off our hands and he's more than likely to cost them a few points here and there, without adding any decisive quality. Still, with the money they have to spend, one feels they could still bring in players to make a difference. For now, though, I think they might slip to 4th, but no lower than that.

Spurs? Again basically the same team as last year, but with one or two unsettled players who want to be playing in the Champions League again. Friedel will obviously be an improvement on Gomes, but overall I can't see them breaking into the top four, never mind challenging for the title.

Liverpool have spent a lot, but again I feel the pre-season hype is unjustified. They have a history of poorly-chosen signings that end up leaving for a fraction of the price they paid for them a year later, and that's what I feel awaits the incredibly overrated pair Jordan Henderson and Stewart Downing. Charlie Adam will add a bit of quality to their midfield, and of course having Suarez and Carroll for the whole season will be a boost, but still not enough to get back into the Champions League places. The King Kenny effect will soon wear off and they'll learn that sentiment alone will not bring back the glory days to Anfield. Will fight with Spurs for 5th place.

And so to us. As you might have worked out by now, I'm thinking 3rd place seems about right. We will presumably drop fewer points from simply not having Almunia in goal for as many games, and hopefully Vermaelen will add a bit of leadership and solidarity to the defence as a whole. Gervinho also looks a promising signing, giving us something a bit different from our aray of playmakers in every midfield and forward position. Will hopefully not flop as spectacularly as Chamakh.

So there, I have made my stance clear. This team is just about good enough for 3rd, or 4th at worst. Liverpool and Spurs should not catch us up. I just want Wenger to remember this at the end of the season when he calls our campaign a success because no one thought we'd finish in the top ten or whatever nonsense he comes up with.

3rd is fine, but with a few signings I think we could certainly overtake Chelsea and give United something to think about. Over to you, Arsène. I might write another preview after the transfer window closes and we've seen the opening few fixtures.

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