Olivier Giroud: Au Revoir Cher Ami

[Vinci]

https://arsenal-mania.com/forum/thr...he-french-mailman.28770/page-251#post-4243553

D'oh, have the memory of a goldfish.

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

Only Arsenal fans could think we are doing well with Giroud up top for 5th year running and we are still not even close to win that damn title.

Guess the ones who really are comfortable are the fans. 4th spot. Charity!

 

[Trilly]

Ooh, @say yes clobbered with his own stat bat

You can't help yourself can you?

 

[say yes]

Ooh, @say yes clobbered with his own stat bat

Hardly

Lad is utterly clueless. He has taken a predictive model for future performance from last season, failed to understand any of it (more on that below), and then tried to apply it to our actual results.

Here is what he said, which is so obviously wrong it doesn't need comment:

I don't know the exact figures on goals but expected goals (measure of chance creation) has a much stronger correlation with points than goals.

Here is what he should have said if he wanted to make sense:

I don't know the exact figures on goals but Michael Caley's expected goal model had a stronger correlation with future points than current goals when he tested it last season.

Now that's an interesting point and (when applied to the rest of @Giroud 's waffle) would imply that we're overperforming in terms of goals scored (and thus points gained) right now. Somewhat unsurprisingly however, @Giroud has failed to take into account a few key points:

1. For all his testing, Michael Caley's model failed pretty spectacularly when he used it to project results last season:

(Leicester had 0% of the title, and 3% of top 4).

2. Michael Caley's model is much more than just a 'chance created' model. Quite uniquely, he has factored in individual finishing ability. Amongst other things, you cannot simply plug our decline in base chance created stats into his model now that Sanchez has moved up front, without also taking into account that Sanchez is a much better finisher than Giroud. Now I don't blame @Giroud for skipping the maths and going straight to the pretty graph, but you'd hope he does a little more research in future.

3. Michael Caley himself said last month that we are barely outperforming our xG stats:
i.e. Our attack is also performing extremely well in his model and we probably don't need to ship Alexis out wide just because our chance created stats are a little lower.

For what it's worth Arsène thinks we're not outperforming it at all and has suggested the reason we're scoring more this season is that we're finishing much better. Hmm, I wonder why that might be.

 

[Giroud]

Only Arsenal fans could think we are doing well with Giroud up top for 5th year running and we are still not even close to win that damn title.

Guess the ones who really are comfortable are the fans. 4th spot. Charity!

I don't think Giroud is good enough and haven't for years. But the fact of the matter is that if he doesn't play it means Walcott, Perez, Welbeck or Chamberlain start, all of which are downgrades on the Frenchman.

In recent years Wenger has refused to gamble on transfers which is the root of the problem. We tried to get Higuain and Suarez but things didn't work out and instead we settled for solid options like Welbeck and Perez. Wenger should have taken a calculated risk on players like Dybala or Batshuayi and gambled on them becoming world class. I'm using the term gamble loosely as well as the likes of Dybala and Batshuayi look supremely talented anyway and not that risky when you consider the fees we could have sold them back to the continent for (eg. Memphis). The Mertesacker contract is another example of Wenger being too cautious as previously he wouldn't have batted an eyelid at having a prospect as talented as Holding as 4th choice CB. That's why we haven't been winning titles in recent years.

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

I don't think Giroud is good enough and haven't for years. But the fact of the matter is that if he doesn't play it means Walcott, Perez, Welbeck or Chamberlain start, all of which are downgrades on the Frenchman.

In recent years Wenger has refused to gamble on transfers which is the root of the problem. We tried to get Higuain and Suarez but things didn't work out and instead we settled for solid options like Welbeck and Perez. Wenger should have taken a calculated risk on players like Dybala or Batshuayi and gambled on them becoming world class. I'm using the term gamble loosely as well as the likes of Dybala and Batshuayi look supremely talented anyway and not that risky when you consider the fees we could have sold them back to the continent for (eg. Memphis). The Mertesacker contract is another example of Wenger being too cautious as previously he wouldn't have batted an eyelid at having a prospect as talented as Holding as 4th choice CB. That's why we haven't been winning titles in recent years.

Our football with Giroud upfront is boring to watch. I rather watch with Welbeck or Walcott in the team ahead of him.

Giroud is doing well at the moment. No way he gets dropped. But he does this every season. What he also does every season is goal drought and that will come soon.

Then all his defenders like last year will disappear and wait for another year to try to convince the world that he should be a starter here.

 

[MaraDon]

That is genuinely one of the most ridiculous things I have ever read about football. Please tell me you don't actually believe that expected goals have a higher correlation with points/are more important than actual goals? Please.



(games-goals-assists)

Sanchez with Giroud as CF:
58-18-12 (0.52 goal contributions/game)

Sanchez with Welbeck as CF:
22-13-6 (0.86 goal contributions/game)

Sanchez with Walcott as CF:
10-8-2 (1.0 goal contributions/game)

Sanchez at CF:
28-15-11 (0.93 goal contributions/game)

volume of games can make a difference...
i understand that sanchez as a CF is working wonders, but so does giroud, and we can use our plasticity (since our system going forward changes tremendously when we changed from one another) according to the rival that we have in front of us.

 

[MaraDon]

Ooh, @say yes clobbered with his own stat bat

let the man be...

there would be a time when he would recognize that his position regarding this topic does not have an objective base and it comes from a merely simplistic and subjective aesthetic view.

 

[MaraDon]

I don't think Giroud is good enough and haven't for years. But the fact of the matter is that if he doesn't play it means Walcott, Perez, Welbeck or Chamberlain start, all of which are downgrades on the Frenchman.

In recent years Wenger has refused to gamble on transfers which is the root of the problem. We tried to get Higuain and Suarez but things didn't work out and instead we settled for solid options like Welbeck and Perez. Wenger should have taken a calculated risk on players like Dybala or Batshuayi and gambled on them becoming world class. I'm using the term gamble loosely as well as the likes of Dybala and Batshuayi look supremely talented anyway and not that risky when you consider the fees we could have sold them back to the continent for (eg. Memphis). The Mertesacker contract is another example of Wenger being too cautious as previously he wouldn't have batted an eyelid at having a prospect as talented as Holding as 4th choice CB. That's why we haven't been winning titles in recent years.

Batshuayi and talented in the same sentence is everything that is wrong with football at the moment.

 

[Giroud]

Hardly

Lad is utterly clueless. He has taken a predictive model for future performance from last season, failed to understand any of it (more on that below), and then tried to apply it to our actual results.

Now that's an interesting point and (when applied to the rest of @Giroud 's waffle) would imply that we're overperforming in terms of goals scored (and thus points gained) right now. Somewhat unsurprisingly however, @Giroud has failed to take into account a few key points:

I haven't applied any predictive model to our current results but used expected goals figures from an article that are not Caley's. All I did was show you that expected goals actually correlate strongly with future points to show as an example of their worth.

And I never said anything about us overperforming on goals so don't know where you plucked that from mate.

1. For all his testing, Michael Caley's model failed pretty spectacularly when he used it to project results last season:

(Leicester had 0% of the title, and 3% of top 4).

Again this is completely irrelevant because the expected goal figures I used were not Michael Caley's.

2. Michael Caley's model is much more than just a 'chance created' model. Quite uniquely, he has factored in individual finishing ability. Amongst other things, you cannot simply plug our decline in base chance created stats into his model now that Sanchez has moved up front, without also taking into account that Sanchez is a much better finisher than Giroud. Now I don't blame @Giroud for skipping the maths and going straight to the pretty graph, but you'd hope he does a little more research in future.

Again didn't use his numbers.

3. Michael Caley himself said last month that we are barely outperforming our xG stats:
i.e. Our attack is also performing extremely well in his model and we probably don't need to ship Alexis out wide just because our chance created stats are a little lower.

For what it's worth Arsène thinks we're not outperforming it at all and has suggested the reason we're scoring more this season is that we're finishing much better. Hmm, I wonder why that might be.

Might be performing well, but his model says we're behind Chelsea, Liverpool and City and more at United level.

But yet again I didn't use any of Caley's numbers.

You've just wrote a massive piece on Caley's expected goals system when I didn't use any of his stuff when comparing are performance with and without Giroud.

Gone off on a tangent to deflect attention from those worthless goal contribution stats? Care to expand on those and get on back on topic? Any proper analysis on Sanchez not performing with Giroud?

 

[Hunter Zolomon]

Batshuayi and talented in the same sentence is everything that is wrong with football at the moment.

bruh i was with you till you said that.

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

Hardly

Lad is utterly clueless. He has taken a predictive model for future performance from last season, failed to understand any of it (more on that below), and then tried to apply it to our actual results.

Here is what he said, which is so obviously wrong it doesn't need comment:

Here is what he should have said if he wanted to make sense:


Now that's an interesting point and (when applied to the rest of @Giroud 's waffle) would imply that we're overperforming in terms of goals scored (and thus points gained) right now. Somewhat unsurprisingly however, @Giroud has failed to take into account a few key points:

1. For all his testing, Michael Caley's model failed pretty spectacularly when he used it to project results last season:

(Leicester had 0% of the title, and 3% of top 4).

2. Michael Caley's model is much more than just a 'chance created' model. Quite uniquely, he has factored in individual finishing ability. Amongst other things, you cannot simply plug our decline in base chance created stats into his model now that Sanchez has moved up front, without also taking into account that Sanchez is a much better finisher than Giroud. Now I don't blame @Giroud for skipping the maths and going straight to the pretty graph, but you'd hope he does a little more research in future.

3. Michael Caley himself said last month that we are barely outperforming our xG stats:
i.e. Our attack is also performing extremely well in his model and we probably don't need to ship Alexis out wide just because our chance created stats are a little lower.

For what it's worth Arsène thinks we're not outperforming it at all and has suggested the reason we're scoring more this season is that we're finishing much better. Hmm, I wonder why that might be.

@Giroud getting destroyed like real life Giroud goal drought destroyed our title hopes last season!

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

It is good to have larger volume of games when judging player.

We have large volume of games, around 4 seasons now that Giroud can't score over 20 goals in the league. We have large volume of games that show that we can't win the title with the big man upfront.

Now some would like to keep banging the head towards the wall, but I think many people are in right when they want to see something new and fresh.

Watching Arsenal in many games this season with Sanchez up front was the most fun I have seen them since Persie was our striker. We are also in running for most scored goals in the league this season. That would be first time in very very very long time we have compete for that.

Sanchez upfront is not perfect, but it is a system we should focusing on polishing. We should give it 4 seasons!

 

[Optimistic]

It is good to have larger volume of games when judging player.

We have large volume of games, around 4 seasons now that Giroud can't score over 20 goals in the league. We have large volume of games that show that we can't win the title with the big man upfront.

Now some would like to keep banging the head towards the wall, but I think many people are in right when they want to see something new and fresh.

Watching Arsenal in many games this season with Sanchez up front was the most fun I have seen them since Persie was our striker. We are also in running for most scored goals in the league this season. That would be first time in very very very long time we have compete for that.

Sanchez upfront is not perfect, but it is a system we should focusing on polishing. We should give it 4 seasons!

Agree with this completely.

I love Giroud but at some point enough is enough. Sanchez at striker has its flaws but we should take the ****in' risk for once. Giroud still has his place in the team but I don't think he should start except in a handful of games (e.g. against parked buses).

 

[novarek]

All the cases of Giroud not delivering for us involve him being beyond burned out and us lacking depth to replace him in a remotely adequate way, even if Perez Chu Young is the alternative it seems we're finally over that scenario.

Sanchez is funnier to watch so what, the top teams improved and that means we aren't contending once again

 

[MaraDon]

Watching Arsenal in many games this season with Sanchez up front was the most fun I have seen them since Persie was our striker.

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aesthetic-judgment/

 

[Rain Dance]

The annual Giroud conundrum is here folks, change that title

PS : As usual people blame Giroud for us not winning the title, conveniently forgetting more superior players didn't even brought us the Carling Cup

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/aesthetic-judgment/

Yeah. Of course it is only my opinion.

 

[Optimistic]

Yeah. Of course it is only my opinion.

Well it is and it isn't. Giroud is an undervalued goal scorer and will consistently earn us ~20 goals per season. He'd be a valuable asset at any club. To sing his praises, he has a fantastic attitude and as Henry pointed out recently, can score goals with his head better than anyone else in the league except maybe Zlatan. I'm thrilled to have him in the club.

But there comes a certain point where we can either stick with what we know or try something new. We all know Giroud will get goals and will perform very well. There's a wealth of evidence to back this up. But we all want to win the league and in order to do so we can either hope Giroud suddenly becomes world class (not impossible, but not very likely) or we can take a risk. Of course that risk might cost us the title, or it might win us everything. But you would think sticking with the same will only bring more of the same.

 

[say yes]

but used expected goals figures from an article that are not Caley's

Again this is completely irrelevant because the expected goal figures I used were not Michael Caley's.

Again didn't use his numbers.

But yet again I didn't use any of Caley's numbers.

You've just wrote a massive piece on Caley's expected goals system when I didn't use any of his stuff

I'm sorry but not having this at all. You used his graph to try and prove your point, don't back out of it now.

Here's the article that graph originates from: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnatio...ier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals

You cited that graph, not me. How can you not have understood the numbers behind it?

Or were you just hoping I'd be intimidated by the pretty numbers?