Olivier Giroud: Au Revoir Cher Ami

[karl]

I'm not sure that winning the title has much to do with Giroud's performance. He has been consistent with 20 goals each season. Also there are 3 seasons when Henry scored at 30 goals or more and we didn't win the title.

It is more down to defensive organisation and a brittle collective confidence. Too many games were lost through complacency and players that have been over-indulged without facing the chop when they under-perform.

 

[Giroud]

I'm sorry but not having this at all. You used his graph to try and prove your point, don't back out of it now.

Here's the article that graph originates from: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnatio...ier-league-projections-and-new-expected-goals

You cited that graph, not me. How can you not have understood the numbers behind it?

Or were you just hoping I'd be intimidated by the pretty numbers?

You have a strange obsession with that graph when the point was that we create more chances with Sanchez, Giroud and Özil all in the line up and cited a different article that you keep ignoring.

I know Caley's model well, but his model which you keep referencing was not the expected goals system I was using to show that we create more with Sanchez, Giroud and Özil in the side.

I also know the flaws, considerations and benefits of expected goals as well as the numbers behind it. The angles, distances, types of shot etc. I even have adapted one to use myself.

You still haven't given any proper evidence showing that Sanchez and Giroud don't work besides those dodgy goal contribution stats from small samples. You still haven't provided any evidence against the fact that we create more with Sanchez, Özil and Giroud. But keep on deflecting your argument away from the original point.

 

[say yes]

I know Caley's model well, but his model which you keep referencing was not the expected goals system I was using to show that we create more with Sanchez, Giroud and Özil in the side.

If you weren't using his system then why did you post the graph of his system's accuracy to back up your point?

You still haven't given any proper evidence showing that Sanchez and Giroud don't work besides those dodgy goal contribution stats from small samples.

Those small samples which contain every single one of Alexis's 9904 Arsenal minutes for us?

With Giroud: 4620 mins, 20 goals, 13 assists. 140 mins per goal/assist.
Without Giroud: 5284 mins, 38 goals, 23 assists. 87 mins per goal/assist.

Complete myth as you say

You still haven't provided any evidence against the fact that we create more with Sanchez, Özil and Giroud.

Why would I need to provide evidence against one of your points that I've never disputed?

Although, have you actually provided any evidence that we're creating less without Giroud in the side? Preferably one that takes into account finishing ability, and not just one of those lazy 'chance created' stats which are literally just a record of how many shots someone has taken.

I'll have to insist that you provide a proper sample size of course. Wouldn't want you basing that claim on the evidence of half a season. And try not to use graphs if you don't understand them this time?

We both know you won't be able to but hey this was fun while it lasted. Impressive recruitment from the mods. Managed to find a Giroud impersonator who's as much a fraud as the real thing.

 

[Giroud]

Those small samples which contain every single one of Alexis's 9904 Arsenal minutes for us?

With Giroud: 4620 mins, 20 goals, 13 assists. 140 mins per goal/assist.
Without Giroud: 5284 mins, 38 goals, 23 assists. 87 mins per goal/assist.

Complete myth as you say

Although, have you actually provided any evidence that we're creating less without Giroud in the side? Preferably one that takes into account finishing ability, and not just one of those lazy 'chance created' stats which are literally just a record of how many shots someone has taken.

I'll have to insist that you provide a proper sample size of course. Wouldn't want you basing that claim on the evidence of half a season. And try not to use graphs if you don't understand them this time?

Again as I've consistently had to repeat the original article I've cited goes into detail on how we are creating less this season but just ignore that again. Expected goals is a lot more complex than a record of how many shots someone takes so you obviously don't have a clue what you're talking about. Also ever heard about regression to the mean? We were awful at converting chances last season and Sanchez was also a victim going through a bad goal drought. Don't tell me him suddenly playing as a striker some how converted him into a much better finisher. It's entirely possible that we were just a bit unlucky last season in front of goal and that's now returning to the mean. And if that is the case it completely skews your goal stats in favour of Sanchez playing without Giroud.

So as I've said before and you've rather conveniently ignored for your arguments sake:

You can't just throw relationships from small samples together and come to a meaningful conclusion. What about his conversion rate over that period, expected goals/90, expected assists/90, dribbles/90, key passes/90, through balls/90, passes into box/90, touches in box/90 and you can go on. Stuff like that is why people hate stats. You really can't throw goals and assists together from small samples and come to the conclusion that Sanchez doesn't work with Giroud. It's not that simple.

Sanchez's conversion rate has gone through the roof this season. I don't believe that is sustainable and as you've brought small samples to the table which are going to skew your results in favour of him playing without Giroud. From watching Arsenal play week in week out Sanchez excels out wide or in the centre. Goals and assists from a small sample is not going to change my view on that. Bring some more advanced statistics to the table that support your view or some other sort of analysis whether it be tactical or whatever and maybe you can convince me.

Still waiting. Yes I disputed the small samples you were using but I ALSO said you need to bring more to the table again which you've completely ignored. Football is not as simple as goal and assist stats or none of us would be posting on here because it would be piss easy to analyse. Maybe our finishing is just returning to the mean? Giroud has been pretty clinical this season too like Sanchez. If you want to dispute that we're just returning to our mean level maybe bring some more advanced tactical or statistical analysis to the table. Using goals and assists scores to prove your point is why people hate stats in football. They can be completely misleading, a player goes through a hot streak and people start throwing goal stats around trying to prove his value but the people who watch him week in week out know he's just fluked a couple of goals and is just not that good.

We both know you won't be able to but hey this was fun while it lasted. Impressive recruitment from the mods. Managed to find a Giroud impersonator who's as much a fraud as the real thing.

Just

Yes Giroud could be upgraded on but how anyone could say Giroud is a fraud after all these years is beyond me. Unbelievable. What would we have done if we needed to rely on Walcott and Welbeck up front all these years? Probably scrapping it out with Everton for Europa League spots with them watching from the treatment room.

 

[say yes]

Again as I've consistently had to repeat the original article I've cited goes into detail on how we are creating less this season but just ignore that again. Expected goals is a lot more complex than a record of how many shots someone takes so you obviously don't have a clue what you're talking about. Also ever heard about regression to the mean? We were awful at converting chances last season and Sanchez was also a victim going through a bad goal drought. Don't tell me him suddenly playing as a striker some how converted him into a much better finisher. It's entirely possible that we were just a bit unlucky last season in front of goal and that's now returning to the mean. And if that is the case it completely skews your goal stats in favour of Sanchez playing without Giroud.

So as I've said before and you've rather conveniently ignored for your arguments sake:



Still waiting. Yes I disputed the small samples you were using but I ALSO said you need to bring more to the table again which you've completely ignored. Football is not as simple as goal and assist stats or none of us would be posting on here because it would be piss easy to analyse. Maybe our finishing is just returning to the mean? Giroud has been pretty clinical this season too like Sanchez. If you want to dispute that we're just returning to our mean level maybe bring some more advanced tactical or statistical analysis to the table. Using goals and assists scores to prove your point is why people hate stats in football. They can be completely misleading, a player goes through a hot streak and people start throwing goal stats around trying to prove his value but the people who watch him week in week out know he's just fluked a couple of goals and is just not that good.



Just

Yes Giroud could be upgraded on but how anyone could say Giroud is a fraud after all these years is beyond me. Unbelievable. What would we have done if we needed to rely on Walcott and Welbeck up front all these years? Probably scrapping it out with Everton for Europa League spots with them watching from the treatment room.

Snore.

Nothing more boring than someone who refuses to concede ground on any point. You've completely failed to explain why you used that graph (again), dismissed out of hand the evidence I provided (why am I not surprised), and failed (again) to provide any evidence of your own.

I appreciate that you're backed into a corner here and don't want to lose any more face, but don't @ me again unless you've actually got something of worth to say.

 

[say yes]

That performance today was absolute ****.

1/10 stuff.

 

[Vinci]

Scoring streak over. Time for him to go back to what he does best: being a super sub.

 

[Giroud]

Snore.

Nothing more boring than someone who refuses to concede ground on any point. You've completely failed to explain why you used that graph (again), dismissed out of hand the evidence I provided (why am I not surprised), and failed (again) to provide any evidence of your own.

I appreciate that you're backed into a corner here and don't want to lose any more face, but don't @ me again unless you've actually got something of worth to say.

Sounds familiar.

The graph was to show the use of expected goals. The original point was the fact that we created more with all 3 in the side. There was nothing to suggest that Sanchez played worse with Giroud.

But we'll leave it there. You clearly aren't willing to debate the original point with sound reasoning so no point going around in circles.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

giroud haters.

Well agree he was worst player in the pitch today if Walcott back next game he should start and Alexis back to play striker

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

We need to make more use of that he is decent header of the ball and easy target to hit because he barely moves.

Not a good game today but that happens with every player, even more so with our big man!

 

[RUS arsenal]

giroud haters.

Well agree he was worst player in the pitch today if Walcott back next game he should start and Alexis back to play striker

I'd like to see more of Lucas Perez with Theo being used as an early sub.

It really is unfortunate that we don't use Giroud's heading ability to its fullest. A pity his knockdown to Ramsey was just behind Aaron.

 

[MaraDon]

he had a good game today, he created a chance for ramsey and he played against the strongest air duels team in the league.

 

[say yes]

Absolutely mastered the false 9.

 

[Optimistic]

Absolutely mastered the false 9.

I don't know how useful this pass map is or maybe some factors have distorted it or whatever, but it does kind of illustrate the point I was making in the Özil thread. Even with Giroud on, Özil is not playing the same way he was last season. I don't think this is because Sanchez is occupying Özil's space, I think Özil has been told to play this way.

Anyway, disappointing game from Giroud but his first bad game in a while. I say give him the chance to make amends against Southampton and go from there.

 

[Penn_]

To be fair mail does oscaionally go missing

 

[Ewarwoowar]

Giroud is class and if He had even a modicum of pace He'd easy be a 30 goal or more a season striker

 

[Tir Na Nog]

Can't believe we've genuinely never tried to use Alexis playing off Giroud like Griezmann did during the Euros just because we have to give Özil total and complete freedom. Sickening stuff. Simeone needed to fix this, I've snapped.

 

[Jury]

Can't believe we've genuinely never tried to use Alexis playing off Giroud like Griezmann did during the Euros just because we have to give Özil total and complete freedom. Sickening stuff. Simeone needed to fix this, I've snapped.

Lad, you haven't snapped. No no no. You're free. YOU'RE FREEEEE!!!!

 

[redanddread]

 

[scytheavatar]

Can't believe we've genuinely never tried to use Alexis playing off Giroud like Griezmann did during the Euros just because we have to give Özil total and complete freedom. Sickening stuff. Simeone needed to fix this, I've snapped.

Sanchez is nothing like Griezmann, Griezmann is a lot closer to Walcott. We could have and should have build a team around Sanchez/Giroud/Walcott, but Wenger loves his playmaking wingers too much to play that.