UCL | Basel v Arsenal | Tuesday 6th December 19:45 | BT Sport 2

[Optimistic]

So yeah, most likely Bayern Munchen/Barcelona/Real Madrid

Barcelona came top of their group, so we can't draw them in the RO16. So we're most likely to get either Bayern or Real, but who knows, maybe we'll get lucky. That said, I'd rather us play a tougher team first. If we're serious contenders for a CL trophy we'll come out on top. If not, at least European football is out of the way and we can focus on the league.

 

[redanddread]

I must say that some of the football we played in this game was the best I've seen all season. The one time passing was excellent.

 

[Rocky]

Rarely do you see such a perfectly chosen team which delivers. In terms of performance, result, ultimate goal accomplished and integration of fringe players with the core 4 mainstays of the spine of the team. Very hard to fault that game really and it has come when the league games start to come more regularly and rotation will be necessary.

 

[redanddread]

Rarely do you see such a perfectly chosen team which delivers. In terms of performance, result, ultimate goal accomplished and integration of fringe players with the core 4 mainstays of the spine of the team. Very hard to fault that game really and it has come when the league games start to come more regularly and rotation will be necessary.

I guess the problem will come when either or both of Özil & Sanchez needs to be rested or is injured. Even though Sanchez is playing out this world at the moment, Özil will be the bigger miss to our team play imo.

 

[Taylor Gang Gunners]

I must say that some of the football we played in this game was the best I've seen all season. The one time passing was excellent.

The passing for Perez's second was unbelievable. Great one touch stuff.

 

[say yes]

Just to sum up my post from the previous page:

41% chance of drawing Real/Bayern
41% chance of drawing Sevilla/
Leverkusen
18% chance of drawing Benifica/Porto

 

[SYS]

 

[Rocky]

I guess the problem will come when either or both of Özil & Sanchez needs to be rested or is injured. Even though Sanchez is playing out this world at the moment, Özil will be the bigger miss to our team play imo.

Just got to bite the bullet and rest them. Much better than getting them injured or causing their levels to drop. Play Iwobi in Özil's position, play Lucas, Walcott or Giroud in Alexis' position.

Luckily, Arsenal have 7 league games from December 26th to February 11th where Wenger could take a gamble on resting Alexis and/or Özil. If he doesn't do it in those games, I think it will be too late and you're just hoping they survive through the remaining games then.

West Brom (h)
Palace (h)
Bournemouth (a)
Swansea (a)
Burnley (h)
Watford (h)
Hull (h)

I think if you rest Özil then maybe you want that to coincide the best footballers you have at AM to minimise the lack of cohesion

Lucas - Iwobi - Ox
Alexis

or maybe
Ramsey - Iwobi - Lucas
Alexis

or
Lucas - Ramsey - Iwobi
Alexis

 

[skip spence]

Just to sum up my post from the previous page:

41% chance of drawing Real/Bayern
41% chance of drawing Sevilla/
Leverkusen
18% chance of drawing Benifica/Porto

I don't understand this. Why is is more likely to draw the first four mentioned?

 

[redanddread]

I don't understand this. Why is is more likely to draw the first four mentioned?

It has a lot to do with the chances of who they can draw that determines the % chance that we can draw them - make sense..:confused:

 

[say yes]

I don't understand this. Why is is more likely to draw the first four mentioned?

You can't be drawn against any team from your own country in the first round. That changes all the odds slightly.

For example, Barca/Atletico can't be drawn against Real/Sevilla. As a result we have a higher chance of drawing Real/Sevilla ourselves.

 

[say yes]

Posted a table on the last page @skip spence if that makes it easier.

 

[redanddread]

Posted a table on the last page @skip spence if that makes it easier.

 

[skip spence]

Ah I see. Although I do have a fondness for statistics and probabilities I think I'll pass on trying to check whose numbers are correct.

 

[Penn_]

Only just noticed we got lucky with how the third was created, but I guess that's what happens when you have players running off each other.

 

[Makingtrax]

You can't be drawn against any team from your own country in the first round. That changes all the odds slightly.

For example, Barca/Atletico can't be drawn against Real/Sevilla. As a result we have a higher chance of drawing Real/Sevilla ourselves.

Better odds of us drawing a Spanish club than a German club.

For example: Real M can't be drawn against Atletico, Borrussia or Barcelona - 3teams in our group

But for a German team like Bayern they can't be drawn against Atletico and Borussia - just 2 teams in our group

And for a Portuguese side like Porto, they can't be drawn against Leicester, just 1 team in our group.

Simples. @redanddread Coral odds look better, but I don't know how they mathematically distinguish between the two clubs from the same country.

 

[Gooner Zig]

 

[say yes]

Yeah, just did it again and those are correct.

As I said, I'm no mathematician

 

[say yes]

Simples. @redanddread Coral odds look better, but I don't know how they mathematically distinguish between the two clubs from the same country.

Just the intricacies of the draw. We've got a higher chance of Madrid because Dortmund have a higher chance of drawing Sevilla (as they can't draw Madrid, Bayern, Bayer).

 

[Makingtrax]

Just the intricacies of the draw. We've got a higher chance of Madrid because Dortmund have a higher chance of drawing Sevilla (as they can't draw Madrid, Bayern, Bayer).

Yes of course, it's the fact that we had a French team in our group