Why selling RVP could be the best thing for Arsenal

RVP without a doubt is world class player and our best player of last year. However I think it's the perfect time for us to sell and we will be a better team next year without him and better in the future for these numerous reasons:

We are a self sustainable club, by selling him it will free up money to spend. Business wise, his stock is at it's highest it ever will be. Now I hear the cries 'but the money won't be re-invested, it wasn't last year'. Well we did spend 50million last year and nearly spent more (if the Gotze/M'Vila rumours had truth behind them) and have spent over 20million thus far this year, so yes selling RVP gives us more money to buy players. We should get 20-35million for an injury prone 29 year old. It seems likely we'll also sell Bendtner/Vela for a combined sum of 10-14million. Even if just 10million is re-invested

Yes RVP may be the best striker in the PL at the moment, although I personally think Rooney edges him. However will he be better than Giroud and Podolski in 2 years? Or 3 years? Will his injury prone nature see him play as many games as them? Giroud and Podolski may be on par with him now, Podolski having outperformed him internationally. I remember when Henry was supposed to be a downgrade on Anelka, when Pires was supposed to be a downgrade for Overmars

Lastly RVP is world class but he's also overrated, no this isn't knee jerk, I've said it before. We have a team built around him that allows him to shine that he won't get at other teams

I want to compare some stats and ratios

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........174..................30.............17.2%
Rooney....157...................27..............17.2%
Arguero....130..................23..............17.6%
Dzeko....92...................14..............15.2%
Balotelli..82................13...............15.8%
Cisse....39.................13...............33%
Podolski..85................18...............21.1%
Giroud...160...............21...............13%

What does this tell us? RVP get's more chances than anyone else but isn't more clinical than the best. Why does he get chances, part because of very good movement but largely because the wingers, CAM and midfielders direct the attack through him. What does this mean:

At United/City he will not get near the number of chances he has for us, so he won't get anything like as many goals. He isn't more clinical than the quality of strikers they already have so won't improve them that much, they're not suddenly going to start creating shedloads more chances per game. Yes they will improve, especially United, but I don't think as much as people may think

We have bought 1 striker in Podolski that is more clinical and we've bought another in Giroud who's also been played as a focal point and has the workrate/positioning to get as many chances to get goals as RVP has. There's a possibility these players in the short term could be on par with RVP or even better. Yes they're leagues were weaker (although France is traditionally hard to score goals and Podolski was in a relegation outfit). Giroud also like RVP has 9 assists. Having Podolski play as a left forward or secondary striker alongside him, will make us harder to defend against, Giroud will drag defenders away from Podolski to give him chances and vice versa. Giroud also seems more of a traditional target link up man, which may give him a better partnership with Theo

In the long term Podolski is 27 and Giroud is 25, compared to a 29 year old RVP. Some say RVP will age well because of his technical ability but that's a bit of a gamble and he will slow, he will get less chances and finish more. So I don't think he'll be as good in 2years, never mind 3 or 4 from now. Also we will have 2 World Class strikers and can play the man in form if either of their form slips. RVP's form himself slipped in the run in last year

So in conclusion, our forward options won't be weakened and maybe stronger. Wenger will have the money to bring in a midfielder, either a creative or defensive force, in an ideal world both and a fullback. We also have Wilshere and don't laugh Diaby coming back. We'll be much stronger than last year. If everyone's worst nightmare comes true and he moves to City, he'll get far less chances as those chances will be more evenly disturbed across their attack and there issues of lack of width and Barry being a bit of weakness might not be addressed. We will be significantly stronger while City won't be that much stronger. This is dependant ofcourse on Wenger been giving the freedom to make spend money and him making the right decisions.

You'll all be amused to hear I have an avatar bet on another forum than Giroud will outscore Andy Carroll this year, he's not even a Liverpool fan, he just thinks Wenger can't pick strikers and Giroud will be another Chamakh. I'm excited for this new season, I have a feeling we could shock everyone next year

I would still prefer to keep him but only if he does a u-turn and signs a new deal. Main reason being stability, ie Cesc last year, RVP this year? Thats not a good pattern and could continue if we dont do something drastic.

Re your bet, I think you will win hands down, I also have a good feeling about Giroud.

Selling RvP would be ok IF we decided to spend the cash on a quality replacement.

I've always said Giroud & Podolski are fantastic signing or additions which strengthen us but only if it isn't at the cost of RvP. Nothing we can seem to do to stop RvP leaving but its another case of one step forward and one step back.

It always seems to be the case of, we try to replace but very rarely strengthen hence why the trophy drought goes on year after year and we struggle to hang onto 3rd/4th every year but very rarely actually compete.

I'd be be completely okay if I thought the RvP cash would be spent on the team but I think it'll be used to balance the money we have already spent.

We've moved onwards from far greater players than RVP. The difference is that this time, Wenger got top class replacements in early. There will be plenty of time to prepare, and thankfully no more surprises.

We've moved onwards from far greater players than RVP. The difference is that this time, Wenger got top class replacements in early. There will be plenty of time to prepare, and thankfully no more surprises.

Woah there. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Of course I would love it if van Persie signed a new deal but it's not going to happen. Arsenal have sold bigger players in the past than van Persie and still done reasonably well. E.g. finishing in the Champions League but I know not winning trophies. No player is bigger than the club and what's the point in keeping a player who is not committed to the club anyway. The Arsenal board won't allow van Persie to walk on a free anyway, if an offer comes in which is 20M + then he will be sold IMO.

He is a replaceable but will Arsenal replace him? They failed to do it with Fabregas.

You'll all be amused to hear I have an avatar bet on another forum than Giroud will outscore Andy Carroll this year, he's not even a Liverpool fan, he just thinks Wenger can't pick strikers and Giroud will be another Chamakh. I'm excited for this new season, I have a feeling we could shock everyone next year

I admire your optimism.
I notice your bet that the player that Giroud will score more goals than was not exactly a golden boot contender

Saying that, I would bet that Walcott will score more goals than Carroll, whoever he is playing for

Of course I would love it if van Persie signed a new deal but it's not going to happen. Arsenal have sold bigger players in the past than van Persie and still done reasonably well. E.g. finishing in the Champions League but I know not winning trophies. No player is bigger than the club and what's the point in keeping a player who is not committed to the club anyway. The Arsenal board won't allow van Persie to walk on a free anyway, if an offer comes in which is 20M + then he will be sold IMO.

He is a replaceable but will Arsenal replace him? They failed to do it with Fabregas.

We did replace Fabregas, by strengtening the overall team i.e. Arteta, Mertesacker and Benayoun, and if RVP leaves I imagine we will do the same thing - probably by signing M'Villa and an AM.

Yes people seem to forget that we actually improved last season after losing Cesc and those other guys (whoever they were).

Wonder who the next captain will be?

(and thus, will probably leave at the end when we win **** all next season)

Not sure if I would go as far to say good thing for the club but this could work out for us as long as we invest the RVP transfer fee in strengthening other areas of the team. If we tighten up defensively we won't need his goal as bad anyway.

Yes people seem to forget that we actually improved last season after losing Cesc and those other guys (whoever they were).

We did improve our league point total but we certainly did not improve overall. We didnt challenge in any of the cups and were out of the league race from day one.

Dont forget we only qualfied for the CL by 1 point this season. Last season we were 6 point away from losing CL football.

Yes people seem to forget that we actually improved last season after losing Cesc and those other guys (whoever they were).

We did improve our league point total but we certainly did not improve overall. We didnt challenge in any of the cups and were out of the league race from day one.

Dont forget we only qualfied for the CL by 1 point this season. Last season we were 6 point away from losing CL football.

We improved our point total and league position. The only reason CL qualification was by one point was due to Chelsea's flukey win of the entire thing (while ending up 3 league postions behind us), otherwise we would have been comfortably in once again.

You'll all be amused to hear I have an avatar bet on another forum than Giroud will outscore Andy Carroll this year, he's not even a Liverpool fan, he just thinks Wenger can't pick strikers and Giroud will be another Chamakh. I'm excited for this new season, I have a feeling we could shock everyone next year

I trust you reminded him that over the course of his career Wenger has picked Weah, Anelka, Henry, Van Persie, etc?

Even adebayor deserve a mention , shue. Nothing but a promising player, turned into a striker who scored 30 goals in a single season and got sold on for 25 million.

Clearly the person that made the comment is an idiot though.

We did improve our league point total but we certainly did not improve overall. We didnt challenge in any of the cups and were out of the league race from day one.

Dont forget we only qualfied for the CL by 1 point this season. Last season we were 6 point away from losing CL football.

We improved our point total and league position. The only reason CL qualification was by one point was due to Chelsea's flukey win of the entire thing (while ending up 3 league postions behind us), otherwise we would have been comfortably in once again.

Had Chelsea gone out in an earlier round, I have little doubt they would have reached a top 4 finish.

Dont judge the squad on league finish alone. As I said, we had no success in the cups and miles from title contenders. Also our football was not as 'beautiful' as we are used to seeing.

We did well considering we lost 3 key players, but I wouldnt say we improved overall.

I think after the initial dejection and dissapointment phase fans faced after Robin van Persie decision, the next phase has been unbridled confidence and optimism. This thread is symptomatic of that.

van Persie leaving is quite clearly not the best thing that could happen to Arsenal. He is our captain and best player - quite how one could make the initial statement is reason for questioning. Even more important that his individual contributions were his remarkable off the field contribution. He really has contributed to the great team spirit in the club. We will surely miss his efforts in both departments.

The whole argument using the trajectory of our players is an almost moot point. We don't know what the future holds for AFC. I mean, Denilson was once meant to be our new Gilberto Silva. In any case, we can't guarantee the long term loyalty of any of our players so how Podolski and Giroud are in 4+ years time will be irrelevant if they aren't playing for us.

Finally, the self-sustainability model has not meant we aren't capable of spending. Yes, we can't compete with the Manchester City's, Anzhi makhachkala's, Paris Saint-Germain's and Malaga's etc but we needn't have to. We don't have to sell our best players in order to finance >£25million a season on squad reinforcements. The club is making enough money to afford that comfortably. It's more the board reluctance to put pressure on Wenger coupled with his idealistic vision for football.

Having said all that, we can move forward from this situation. I would say the imperative thing to do is to sell van Persie abroad for a fee in the region of £20million. Then, look at replacing his contribution by adding to the squad as a whole. Like for like, we won't be able to replace him on our budget but we can get better as a team by adding to 3 or 4 different positions.

There is no benefit of the leagues top striker leaving our club. This thread seems like one of the 5 phases of grief, the bargaining phase.We have consitanty been unable to tie down our best players to long term comitment to our club when they reach/on the verge of thier prime.

It has been a very worrying pattern emerging, which has become even more rampant under Kroenke. Whoever thinks that losing one of or several of our key players every season whilst replacing them with cheaper options is healthy for the club, then they must have missed the fact that we have not won a thing for 8 years.

we can spin this out into a positive if you want, there are positives and there are negatives to this "saga" but for me RVP is just a smokescreen to the larger problems..mainly players are now coming back for pre season training and the "massive" clear out still hasn't started yet, players are refusing to move because they are getting good wages which shows you the mentality of the so called fighters who collapsed like decks of cards when the going got tough.

If RVP leaves we get a fee for him and we can replace him, it's pretty cut and dry. Djourou, Arshavin, Bendtner, Squillaci and Denilson are all still hanging around taking up valuable squad space, the RVP saga has averted people's eyes in his direction, yet there is another group quietly congregating in the corner and those are the players holding us back.

Yes RVP may be the best striker in the PL at the moment, although I personally think Rooney edges him.
/.../
I want to compare some stats and ratios

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........174..................30.............17.2%
Rooney....157...................27..............17.2%

What does this tell us? RVP get's more chances than anyone else but isn't more clinical than the best.

I have some serious objections about mis-leading use of stats and deficient interpretation/understanding of stats. To present a conversion percentage table without showing the number of penalties is extremely mis-leading. As you ignored this part I will make that for you.

Wayne Rooney converted penalties in the league 2011/2012
Arsenal H 1 goal
Chelsea A 2 goals
WBA H 1 goal
QPR H 1 goal
Aston Villa H 1 goal

Wayne Rooney missed penalties in the league 2011/2012
Chelsea H 1 miss
Bolton H 1 miss

Robin van Persie converted penalties in the league 2011/2012
Wolverhampton A 1 goal
Aston Villa A 1 goal

Robin van Persie missed penalties in the league 2011/2012
Manchester United A 1 miss


Now let's exclude penalties to get a clearer picture:

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........171..................27.............15.8%
Rooney....149...................21..............14.0 %

Ok, so a difference in 1.8 % conversion percentage after penalties have been excluded, is that really much? Well, let put it this way:

Six of Rooney's 27 league goals in 2011/2012 were penalties. That is 22.2 %
Two of van Persie's 30 league goals in 2011/2012 were penalties 6.7 %

And more importantly, van Persie still outscored Rooney with 3 goals despite Rooney had 5 more chances from the penalty spot. I have no idea in the world why you use stats from last season to tell that Rooney is better than van Persie ("What does this tell us? RVP get's more chances than anyone else but isn't more clinical than the best").

For the record, after adjustments for league goals in 2011/2012 scored by penalties (Aguero 2, Rooney 6), Aguero matches Rooney with both players on 21 league goals although Rooney had about 20 shots more (the exact number depends on the number of penalties that Aguero missed in the league but I do not know that number). In conclusion that means Aguero was a lot more clinical than Rooney.

Rooney's conversion rate in league games last season is 19% lower without penalties compared to his stats including penalties!

However will he be better than Giroud and Podolski in 2 years? Or 3 years? Will his injury prone nature see him play as many games as them? Giroud and Podolski may be on par with him now, Podolski having outperformed him internationally. I remember when Henry was supposed to be a downgrade on Anelka, when Pires was supposed to be a downgrade for Overmars

How van Persie and Podolski played in the Euro's is completely irrelevant to how they would perform at Arsenal. van Persie has been absolute world class for Arsenal the last 1.5 years. In theory, Podolski may be on par with van Persie now, but could you really see him get 28 goals (excluding penalties) and 13 assists for Arsenal in the league next season (the closest thing to now in the context of playing for Arsenal) or even anything close to these numbers? In the long term, Giroud and Podolski may become the right replacements for several reasons, but to write that they "may be on par with him now", with him being the PFA Player's Player of the Year and PL Golden Boot Winner, is overoptimistic to say the least. In theory, the team may become more balanced with Giroud and Podolski as replacements for van Persie but I doubt that it is enough. Henry is a special case as he was a winger that was converted to a world class striker in a very short time by Wenger whereas Giroud and Podolski both are strikers. I believe it will take a long time for us Arsenal fans until we experience something similar to Henry's explosive development again.

Lastly RVP is world class but he's also overrated, no this isn't knee jerk, I've said it before.

If there is any striker in PL that is overrated, then it would be Rooney.

At United/City he will not get near the number of chances he has for us, so he won't get anything like as many goals.

van Persie would most likely get a lot more quality chances at City if he played the same number of games. For a long period of last season, City absolutely tore apart the opposite teams whereas Arsenal had problems to create clear cut chanches last season. You can not only look at the number of chances but also the quality of the chances. van Persie had many tap-ins last season where the team mates set him up perfectly and his own great movement allowed him to have an easy finish (for example Gervinho's great assist to van Persie against Chelsea among many other similar goals), but there were also many times where van Persie's genius allowed him to score from nowhere (the 2-2 goal against Tottenham) and convert difficult chances that few strikers in the league would score (Everton volley, Liverpool volley).
The main difference is that van Persie not would play all 38 league games at City as they have a lot more cover than us. If van Persie would struggle at City it would not be for football reasons or lack of talent.

It is more difficult to say how he would do at United as their offensive tactic is more dependent on wingers putting in crosses whereas I think that he footvall wise would fit in seamless in City's system.


In conclusion I'm extremely dissapointed by van Persie after all the time and patience that Wenger gave him, but my assessment of his quality is not clouded by emotions. The only unimpressive about van Persie football wise always was his fitness record, never his quality. If van Persie leaves, we lose a person that was an absolutely fantastic player (when fit) and captain for us.

After van Persie's statement it looks like he has burned his bridges at the club in order to force the move. The situation is far from ideal and I understand that a player not should hold the club hostage.

However, I'm quite certain that most fans if given the choice would prefer to have had a committed van Persie leading out the team next season. van Persie leaving will prolong the transition state at Arsenal.

Yes RVP may be the best striker in the PL at the moment, although I personally think Rooney edges him.
/.../
I want to compare some stats and ratios

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........174..................30.............17.2%
Rooney....157...................27..............17.2%

What does this tell us? RVP get's more chances than anyone else but isn't more clinical than the best.

I have some serious objections about mis-leading use of stats and deficient interpretation/understanding of stats. To present a conversion percentage table without showing the number of penalties is extremely mis-leading. As you ignored this part I will make that for you.

Wayne Rooney converted penalties in the league 2011/2012
Arsenal H 1 goal
Chelsea A 2 goals
WBA H 1 goal
QPR H 1 goal
Aston Villa H 1 goal

Wayne Rooney missed penalties in the league 2011/2012
Chelsea H 1 miss
Bolton H 1 miss

Robin van Persie converted penalties in the league 2011/2012
Wolverhampton A 1 goal
Aston Villa A 1 goal

Robin van Persie missed penalties in the league 2011/2012
Manchester United A 1 miss


Now let's exclude penalties to get a clearer picture:

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........171..................27.............15.8%
Rooney....149...................21..............14.0 %

Ok, so a difference in 1.8 % conversion percentage after penalties have been excluded, is that really much? Well, let put it this way:

Six of Rooney's 27 league goals in 2011/2012 were penalties. That is 22.2 %
Two of van Persie's 30 league goals in 2011/2012 were penalties 6.7 %

And more importantly, van Persie still outscored Rooney with 3 goals despite Rooney had 5 more chances from the penalty spot. I have no idea in the world why you use stats from last season to tell that Rooney is better than van Persie ("What does this tell us? RVP get's more chances than anyone else but isn't more clinical than the best").

For the record, after adjustments for league goals in 2011/2012 scored by penalties (Aguero 2, Rooney 6), Aguero matches Rooney with both players on 21 league goals although Rooney had about 20 shots more (the exact number depends on the number of penalties that Aguero missed in the league but I do not know that number). In conclusion that means Aguero was a lot more clinical than Rooney.

Rooney's conversion rate in league games last season is 19% lower without penalties compared to his stats including penalties!

However will he be better than Giroud and Podolski in 2 years? Or 3 years? Will his injury prone nature see him play as many games as them? Giroud and Podolski may be on par with him now, Podolski having outperformed him internationally. I remember when Henry was supposed to be a downgrade on Anelka, when Pires was supposed to be a downgrade for Overmars

How van Persie and Podolski played in the Euro's is completely irrelevant to how they would perform at Arsenal. van Persie has been absolute world class for Arsenal the last 1.5 years. In theory, Podolski may be on par with van Persie now, but could you really see him get 28 goals (excluding penalties) and 13 assists for Arsenal in the league next season (the closest thing to now in the context of playing for Arsenal) or even anything close to these numbers? In the long term, Giroud and Podolski may become the right replacements for several reasons, but to write that they "may be on par with him now", with him being the PFA Player's Player of the Year and PL Golden Boot Winner, is overoptimistic to say the least. In theory, the team may become more balanced with Giroud and Podolski as replacements for van Persie but I doubt that it is enough. Henry is a special case as he was a winger that was converted to a world class striker in a very short time by Wenger whereas Giroud and Podolski both are strikers. I believe it will take a long time for us Arsenal fans until we experience something similar to Henry's explosive development again.

Lastly RVP is world class but he's also overrated, no this isn't knee jerk, I've said it before.

If there is any striker in PL that is overrated, then it would be Rooney.

At United/City he will not get near the number of chances he has for us, so he won't get anything like as many goals.

van Persie would most likely get a lot more quality chances at City if he played the same number of games. For a long period of last season, City absolutely tore apart the opposite teams whereas Arsenal had problems to create clear cut chanches last season. You can not only look at the number of chances but also the quality of the chances. van Persie had many tap-ins last season where the team mates set him up perfectly and his own great movement allowed him to have an easy finish (for example Gervinho's great assist to van Persie against Chelsea among many other similar goals), but there were also many times where van Persie's genius allowed him to score from nowhere (the 2-2 goal against Tottenham) and convert difficult chances that few strikers in the league would score (Everton volley, Liverpool volley).
The main difference is that van Persie not would play all 38 league games at City as they have a lot more cover than us. If van Persie would struggle at City it would not be for football reasons or lack of talent.

It is more difficult to say how he would do at United as their offensive tactic is more dependent on wingers putting in crosses whereas I think that he footvall wise would fit in seamless in City's system.


In conclusion I'm extremely dissapointed by van Persie after all the time and patience that Wenger gave him, but my assessment of his quality is not clouded by emotions. The only unimpressive about van Persie football wise always was his fitness record, never his quality. If van Persie leaves, we lose a person that was an absolutely fantastic player (when fit) and captain for us.

After van Persie's statement it looks like he has burned his bridges at the club in order to force the move. The situation is far from ideal and I understand that a player not should hold the club hostage.

However, I'm quite certain that most fans if given the choice would prefer to have had a committed van Persie leading out the team next season. van Persie leaving will prolong the transition state at Arsenal.

and life is full of disappointments ..I hope we keep him, committed or not he'll play and let him be uncomfortable for a while, then he can go..would serve him right!

Even adebayor deserve a mention , shue. Nothing but a promising player, turned into a striker who scored 30 goals in a single season and got sold on for 25 million.

Clearly the person that made the comment is an idiot though.

Totally agree! We give our strikers so many strikers. We play a 4-5-1 and all of our play revolves around giving chances to our striker.
Hense, Adebayor scoring 30 in one season, Chamakh scored 10 in the first half of the season he played in and much more......
Whoever, is lucky enough to play striker for us in the coming season will score goals and that is a fact!

We were also a bit of a one man team in Henry's last year but we've had a fantastic season after he left to Barcelona. The whole team was scoring goals and RVP and especially Adebayor stepped up.

Don't about the best thing, but, yeah, of course we'll survive and onwards, upwards, and all that. Getting in players who aren't perma-crocks is a damned good start.

Replacing the medical and fitness team to avoid that our new players become perma-crocks after they come to Arsenal would be a great follow up.

..........Shots In The League..Goals...Conversion Percentage
RVP........174..................30.............17.2%
Rooney....157...................27..............17.2%
Arguero....130..................23..............17.6%
Dzeko....92...................14..............15.2%
Balotelli..82................13...............15.8%
Cisse....39.................13...............33%
Podolski..85................18...............21.1%
Giroud...160...............21...............13%

Some guy on Redcafe did the calculations for the last 7 or 8 PL seasons, RvP contributed to more goals per minute than any other top striker, be it Rooney, Drogba, Berbatov or Heskey. Was before this season, so I imagine his rate will only have improved.

Also congratulations, your post has been quoted and laughed at on gloryglory.

Not the best thing for us, but I don't see us finishing out of the top 4 places again even with him gone.

If we buy a couple more quality players, we'll be challenging for the title.

If we get rid of van Persie this summer and buy two more players (Mvila, another player) will that even itself out you think? Or do you guys think we need more than that in?

RVP is simply world class and the best striker in the world after Messi and Ronaldo. We will obviously miss him.
Can Podolski and Giroud give similar kind of contributions to Arsenal? Possibly yes if we do ensure that we create more chances. I think since RVP is leaving, An AM becomes more important for us. Hope we buy M`Vila and an AM now.