The Great Squad Cost Thread

[Makingtrax]

So to summarise we can't be expected to outperform teams who spend more than us and those who outperform us spending less should be disregarded because their players turned out to be alot better than the money they cost.

Bit of an exaggeration. There's only been one club outperformed us spending less, they used to be our rivals in the old days. Wenger beat them 20 years straight though tbf. We were all happy to Lord it over them then.

 

[Mark Tobias]

I can't discuss this with you bro. Like many you're clearly frustrated with Wenger and you're looking to find pedantic ways of denying what's blatantly true, because you believe he's failed us.

It pours out of you like a river and you make a hundred points in one long post that impossible to answer.

Spend, team management and luck all contribute to a team's final position.

But here's the overall summary, since arriving Wenger has spent a lot less than 4 other teams, however you're trying to break it down, but he has averaged 2.74 in his finishing position with a win rate of 59%. Now if want to say that he should have done better, or should have won the league . . . fine. But I'm saying that's a lot better than most other managers ever to grace the Prem, particularly if you throw in all the trophies he's won.

That win rate was 57 a week or two ago

 

[Dj_sds]

So to summarise we can't be expected to outperform teams who spend more than us and those who outperform us spending less should be disregarded because their players turned out to be alot better than the money they cost.

Seems legit. Squad cost in a nutshell.

 

[Makingtrax]

5 years is a lifetime in football.
Things were not one-hundreth as bad as they are right now for us, 5 years ago.
Except for a minority of people, most of us appreciated and lauded wenger's job in "those" years.
But 5 years is a long enough time. Wenger has had the support of the board, the fans, the time to know the club inside out... and he has failed miserably in the last 5 years. Thierry was a beast, but I am sure no one would want him to be our striker currently. Similarly, wenger is way past his due date.
If we had any qualms about it, then Laca is the perfect answer to it. The guy was/is a beast. No doubt about it. But the way he is/has been managed is a disaster.

Last year when chelsea won the league, they had a squad which sans cahill and terry were on the books for less than 5 years. Thats what 5 years can do (2012-13 to 2016-17).
There is literally no excuse left for the wenger. He is finished, he is over. we have cleared out a lot of the deadwood this year:
Ox, Coq, Yaya, Gibbs, walcott, debuchy. Giroud was a decent plan B, nothing more, Sanchez did not seem to want to play for almost a year, paulista is/was mismanaged.

And we have got quality players:
Kola, Laca, Mkhi, Auba.

And yet, we are way worse than last year and we are spiralling down and down. Compare it to Sp**s, compare it to chelsea and we are just way way off.

No squad cost, net spend etc etc wild theories is going to make sense now, because of the simple fact, wenger is past it.

He got 75 points last year which is a fraction below his 20 year average. So he's not spiralling downwards. Liverpool and Sp**s are improving.

But we agree it's time for him to leave, this year his away form is poor.

 

[Kobi]

Bit of an exaggeration. There's only been one club outperformed us spending less, they used to be our rivals in the old days. Wenger beat them 20 years straight though tbf. We were all happy to Lord it over them then.

Maybe but you can't just discount Kane and Alli as a "fluke" any more than you would Vieira, Van Persie, Toure, Fabregas, Anelka or Wilshere now.
They all cost a fraction of their worth.
Kane is a youth product who scored goals at every age group and they took a chance and stuck him in the team, Alli as well they didn't just send him on loan for six years as Chelsea would have done he went straight from League One into the team, you have to give them some credit.
To be fair they have always bought young British players it's just up till now they have been mostly crap like Huddlestone and Dawson, chances were always they would get one right at some point.

 

[Makingtrax]

Seems legit. Squad cost in a nutshell.

Yes, but only if you don't understand it.

 

[Dj_sds]

Yes, but only if you don't understand it.

Yea, i prefer logic.

 

[BBF]

I see now why we disagree on this. You reduce to everything to luck and chance, as if tactics, coaching etc. has no bearing on the game.

Yep. Comes on here everyday, gets hit with a load of facts disproving a lot of this nonsense and coincidentally changes his argument based on who he's replying to.

I'm actually amazed this rubbish gets rewarded with a "trusted member" status.

 

[Chanandler Bong]

This thread is shockingly boring.

 

[STATS]

He got 75 points last year which is a fraction below his 20 year average. So he's not spiralling downwards. Liverpool and Sp**s are improving.

But we agree it's time for him to leave, this year his away form is poor.

I feel that exactly is the problem. We have set the benchmarks so low and we are happy to abide by it. Pool and Sp**s' managers and players dont have the mentality and have overtaken us. On the other hand we have chelsea who are 8 points ahead of us, and there are rumors of their manager getting the sack.
I am not saying that I want my club to be run like chelsea managerial merry go round, but its about time, the average/we are fine attitude is chucked out of the club. And for that to happen, wenger has to leave.

 

[BBF]

Yeah, I was focusing more on how much Wenger spent in those "winning years" compared to the other clubs because I thought your post kind of suggested Wenger's always spent less than the other big clubs and I thought that would have been impossible early on and it was, for example in 97 we were the top spenders by a few million and won the league, but I get it was over 20 years as a total rather than "he's always been outspent by Chelsea, United, Liverpool". There's some issues with your arguments. For example, Sp**s squad cost is lower because of the anomaly of Harry Kane. Fine. But then, you have to take into account, Cesc, RVP in their prime, or now, Kolasinac, Ramsey, Wilshere, Bellerin. If those four are in form, in a team that's doing well, in today's market that's at least 150 million.

And I made the comment about squad cost and coaching because I feel like you often intergrain the two i.e club is successful because of squad cost, club isn't successful because of squad cost whereas that sort of argument doesn't take into account the human aspect i.e coaching, tactics, motivation, other clubs rebuilding etc.

Squad cost and finishing position is about what you think the board would be happy with. So Wenger finishes 4th, his squad cost is 4th, so that means he's doing an excellent job and the board are happy and the fans shouldn't expect anything else because it's unrealistic. Whereas in hindsight, it's naive to not think that another top manager at another moment in time might have got a squad with our level of talent a league title. We were very close in the year Eduardo got injured, we had a good team with Cesc and RVP, in 2015 we were top for the calendar year regardless of spend so that shows it's closer than you think and that may be put down other factors than spend like coaching, management, consistency, player transfer decisions etc. Swansea were dead and buried under Clement. They had a net spend of minus 20 million. You could argue, what do you expect Clement to do, the club are where they should be. They've got a net spend in the minus's, he's doing a good job for his spend. Yet, a new guy comes in, sorts the team out, gets them playing a different way, gets a little bit more out of every player, and suddenly things are looking up. That's down to a coach not spend.

If you link spend to success, you also have to link spend to coaching. Because by linking spend to success you are ignoring and devaluing coaching and managerial decisions i.e signing Xhaka instead of Kante. That doesn't have any effect on the spend table, but Kante was what we needed, not Xhaka. That's a managerial issue, not spend.

I think, all things considered between 2004 and 2018, with the players and squads Wenger's had available to him with the benefit of other teams sacking managers, rebuilding etc he should have won a title or two. So he's failed in that aspect, and I think it's not as simple as linking success or failure to squad cost. City's finishing positions were 2nd, 4th and 4rd. So what do you take from that? City sacked their manager because he performed under his squad cost? But you can also win the league without having the highest squad cost.

"In the last nine seasons, only once has a team won the league after having been the highest spenders in the lead-up to that season - when City spent around £70m in the summer of 2011. Since then, the biggest spenders in each summer have finished no higher than third - Chelsea doing so in 2012/13 - while City, United (twice) and Tottenham have had the most lavish pre-seasons in the last four years, attaining finishes of sixth, fourth, fourth and sixth."

Good post.

Others here would make you believe 2008 Aston Villa should be on the same level as 2008 Barcelona because Barcelona's squad was apparently free due to their academy. Obviously neglecting the money spent on the academy, time spent on the players and the extortionate wages being spent.

 

[BobP]

I'm actually amazed this rubbish gets rewarded with a "trusted member" status.

I'm still baffled by this.

An absolute joke.

 

[Makingtrax]

Maybe but you can't just discount Kane and Alli as a "fluke" any more than you would Vieira, Van Persie, Toure, Fabregas, Anelka or Wilshere now.
They all cost a fraction of their worth.
Kane is a youth product who scored goals at every age group and they took a chance and stuck him in the team, Alli as well they didn't just send him on loan for six years as Chelsea would have done he went straight from League One into the team, you have to give them some credit.
To be fair they have always bought young British players it's just up till now they have been mostly crap like Huddlestone and Dawson, chances were always they would get one right at some point.

They didn't do too badly with Gareth Bale, but I think they paid about £13m for him.

 

[krengon]

He got 75 points last year which is a fraction below his 20 year average. So he's not spiralling downwards. Liverpool and Sp**s are improving.

If you are regressing relatively to your competition/rivals you are spiralling downwards even if you technically are performing to your average.

 

[Makingtrax]

If you are regressing relatively to your competition/rivals you are spiralling downwards even if you technically are performing to your average.

Most of the other clubs at the top of the league have cycled in and out of the top 4 over the years as different players and managers have come and gone. Even United recently.

Wenger's been most unusual because he's never done that, since the first day he was in charge.

If he stays another year and completes the team overhaul maybe he'll go back in, who knows.

So maybe the club is cycling for once like all the other teams. It would be very unkind to say he's spiralling downwards at this stage.

 

[Sammy1887]

Most of the other clubs at the top of the league have cycled in and out of the top 4 over the years as different players and managers have come and gone. Even United recently.

Wenger's been most unusual because he's never done that, since the first day he was in charge.

If he stays another year and completes the team overhaul maybe he'll go back in, who knows.

So maybe the club is cycling for once like all the other teams. It would be very unkind to say he's spiralling downwards at this stage.

Agreed but with Arsène, this sudden downfall from the Top 4 is kind of self-inflicted. He has regularly shown faith in players who have failed him and getting value for money for some of the transfers he has made has also been a problem.

 

[Mark Tobias]

Agreed but with Arséne, this sudden downfall from the Top 4 is kind of self-inflicted. He has regularly shown faith in players who have failed him and getting value for money for some of the transfers he has made has also been a problem.

Nobody here is claiming it isn't though. Even Trax has stated several fvcking times that time is up now.

 

[Makingtrax]

i think you're taking it too far here. players dont just "turn out" to be world class or not. football is largely a cerebral game and there's so much to learn. furthermore there are a lot of setbacks to overcome and so maintaining motivation is key. neither of those chores involve luck; they depend on a strong working relationship between trainer and player -- to teach a player the things that will help him improve in a conducive way and to maintain sufficient motivation to keep improving.

i'll be very honest; if harry kane developed under wenger, i have huge doubts that he'd be as good as he is today. i think wenger would teach him the wrong things and fail to motivate him properly. wenger hasnt developed players for several years now -- thats why our squad value is below Sp**s despite their squad cost being lower than ours.

Couldn't disagree more. There are thousands of young lads all around the world trying to make it to the land of football milk and honey.

Cream rises. The number that reach Ronaldo, Messi standard or even English lads that become leading goal scorers in the Prem like Shearer and Kane are as rare as hens teeth.

If nurture produced guys like this, there would be a lot more of them. Pochettino didn't make Kane great, anymore than Wenger didn't make Henry great. They chanced upon them. Like Leicester chanced upon Kante.

Scouting is a very difficult and chancy business. If it was easy, clubs wouldn't be spending millions on software to predict the next leading goal scorer.

It's Kane who has dragged that team into the top 4. As we'll see when he leaves Sp**s for the big time. There's nothing like scoring goals to infuse a team with confidence. The difference between the coaches at the top is nowhere near as great as the hype and frustration on here suggests.

 

[BobP]

Yep. Comes on here everyday, gets hit with a load of facts disproving a lot of this nonsense and coincidentally changes his argument based on who he's replying to.

You're giving him too much credit.

What usually happens is that after a debate where you point out the flaws in his argument, he'll either ignore you or completely derail the debate by making an irrelevant point. I haven't even touched on how he straw mans opposing arguments.

For example, a couple of months ago I pointed to the issues with taking the price of a player to be indicative of their value or quality. I even remember you raising the issue of the Barcelona team back then.

And yet, we find ourselves having the very same debate all over again.

The guy is like a literal brick wall.

Whatever points you make go in through one ear and come out the other.

 

[Makingtrax]

Funny how the Wenger Out brigade resort to personal comments about other posters.

Can only assume they feel threatened by the arguments, so have to resort to character assassinations.

In a sense it's a compliment.