Premier League 2018/19: The Fight for a CL Spot

[Manberg]

Well, since most of you are still confident we can get top 4, I just hope if we go down that route we actually get top 4. Don't want to risk not making it and getting bummed out, knocking ourselves out of the Europa league too. That can happen. It's going to be all about the results.

 

[Furious]

We have only two games against top 6 sides.But there is a lot tricky away games.Wolves,Everton,Watford,Leicester.We need to win all that games.

Yeah those away games look difficult.

Chelsea will lose to City and have Sp**s at home, Pool and Utd away. Safe to say that they will drop loads of points.

Win the next 3 easy games and don't lose against Sp**s, and then we can take matters into our own against Utd.

If this fails we still have Europa League where Chelsea is our main rival. Confident we can beat them.

Just need to play it right, and we might have CL next season. Sick and tired of EL, a useless competiton until the semifinals.

 

[Notorious Big]

Yeah those away games look difficult.

Chelsea will lose to City and have Sp**s at home, Pool and Utd away. Safe to say that they will drop loads of points.

Win the next 3 easy games and don't lose against Sp**s, and then we can take matters into our own against Utd.

If this fails we still have Europa League where Chelsea is our main rival. Confident we can beat them.

Just need to play it right, and we might have CL next season. Sick and tired of EL, a useless competiton until the semifinals.

Yeah,but in Europa League there is some good teams as well.Those who played in CL and few others.

 

[DanDare]

This summer is going to be immense especially if we were to get too 4. Think it will be the biggest change to squad in one window for a long while.

 

[say yes]

Weighted League Table - GW25

Spoiler: Explanation

If you've not seen one of these before, it essentially weights results against the quality of teams faced. It will be exactly the same as the league table at the end of the season (when everyone has played every team twice), but until then it shows you roughly how well each club is doing given the fixtures played.

A 'champion' is expected to get 89 points: 3/6 points from your rivals; 4/6 from the middling teams; 6/6 from the weaker teams. Doing so would give you 89 points.

2018/2019 rankings:

Spoiler: Big 6

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Sp**s

Spoiler: Middle Pack

Newcastle, Watford, Brighton, Leicester, Everton

Spoiler: Explanation

Newcastle (28 home points, 10 from Big 6)
Watford (27 home points, 8 from Big 6)
Brighton (29 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Leicester (27 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Everton (34 home points, 2 from Big 6)

Spoiler: Fodder

Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Burnley, West Ham, Southampton, Huddersfield, Wolves, Fulham, Cardiff

Spoiler: 17/18 season final results

Liverpool: +5
City: +4
Sp**s: -2
United: -7
Arsenal: -12
Chelsea: -13

 

[albakos]

Liverpool: +5
City: +5
Sp**s: -2
United: -7
Arsenal: -12
Chelsea: -13

How come we were in a downward trend during that unbeaten run until game week 16-17 ?

 

[Dennis_Bergkamp_10]

Probably because we were expected to beat the given teams yet drew some of them.

 

[NZgunner]

While the points gap to finish 4th is still manageable and I can see us pipping Chelsea, I can't see us finishing ahead of Utd.

I also think there are too many strong teams in the Europa League and we won't be winning that.

For me this season was always going to be mostly about Emery sorting out where he needed to improve the squad to support his brand/philosophy. There was the possibility of a lucky cup run or finishing 3rd or 4th, but the injury toll has scuppered our chances of being truly competitive.

In fact the worst thing about the injuries is that Emery probably still doesn't know enough about possible defensive combinations going forward into next season.

The Suarez loan doesn't excite me, precisely because it is a loan - the only loan I thought we should have been looking at was in defense. Maybe we'll buy Suarez in the summer, but we probably won't see enough of him in the next few months in a proper context (ie a settled team with a solid defense) to know whether this is what we need or not.

The single most disappointing thing is that we are going to again finish behind Sp**s, in a year when half their squad went deep into the world cup, they haven't got the money to bolster the squad, have had all sorts or uncertainty about their new stadium, and they've had injuries. The fact that Sp**s are still in the title race is obviously a reflection of how well they play and are managed - but it also shows just how far we have to progress.

2019/20 is already looking like a rebuilding season, possibly even more disruptive in terms of comings and goings than this season.

 

[rich 1990]

. It's going to be all about the results.

 

[Aevi]

Weighted League Table - GW25

Spoiler: Explanation

If you've not seen one of these before, it essentially weights results against the quality of teams faced. It will be exactly the same as the league table at the end of the season (when everyone has played every team twice), but until then it shows you roughly how well each club is doing given the fixtures played.

A 'champion' is expected to get 89 points: 3/6 points from your rivals; 4/6 from the middling teams; 6/6 from the weaker teams. Doing so would give you 89 points.

2018/2019 rankings:

Spoiler: Big 6

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Sp**s

Spoiler: Middle Pack

Newcastle, Watford, Brighton, Leicester, Everton

Spoiler: Explanation

Newcastle (28 home points, 10 from Big 6)
Watford (27 home points, 8 from Big 6)
Brighton (29 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Leicester (27 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Everton (34 home points, 2 from Big 6)

Spoiler: Fodder

Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Burnley, Watford, Southampton, Huddersfield, Wolves, Fulham, Cardiff

Spoiler: 17/18 season final results

Liverpool: +5
City: +5
Sp**s: -2
United: -7
Arsenal: -12
Chelsea: -13

Watford is listed in both your middle pack and fodder group.

I'd also like to see how this table would look if Wolves, West Ham, and Bournemouth is put in your middle pack and Newcastle is put into your fodder, it's more realistic. I know you based it on last year's results, but it's a bit outdated and the margins were close anyway.

 

[HollandGooner]

Dont think we will make it tbf, we have to many shortcomings specially in defence. upfront we are fine but we are lacking a lot. I still hope we will find a way to make it but will be difficult.

 

[say yes]

Watford is listed in both your middle pack and fodder group.

I'd also like to see how this table would look if Wolves and Bournemouth is put in your middle pack and Newcastle is put into your fodder, it's more realistic. I know you based it on last year's results, but it's a bit outdated and the margins were close anyway.

Cheers, should have said West Ham in the fodder category and have changed it.

Yep could play around with the rankings more now we’ve got an idea of team strength. Makes the graph more subjective but also probably more accurate.

Looking at results so far: West Ham, Wolves and Southampton have all proven very tricky away games for the big 6. Could bump them up a grade, drop Newcastle (who haven’t been too difficult this year) and make par 87.

 

[Sniper Mik]

Chelsea's next 6 fixtures in all competitions -

City (A)
Malmo (A)
United (H)
Malmo (H)
City (H)
Sp**s (H)

United's next 6 fixtures in all competitions -

PSG (H)
Chelsea (A)
Liverpool (H)
Palace (A)
Southampton (H)
PSG (A)
Then they play us just 2 days later.

There's a chance for us to take advantage of their hectic schedules

 

[Sanchez11]

Chelsea's next 6 fixtures in all competitions -

City (A)
Malmo (A)
United (H)
Malmo (H)
City (H)
Sp**s (H)

United's next 6 fixtures in all competitions -

PSG (H)
Chelsea (A)
Liverpool (H)
Palace (A)
Southampton (H)
PSG (A)
Then they play us just 2 days later.

There's a chance for us to take advantage of their hectic schedules

You say that but our form is not all that.

 

[goonerfamily]

Points-wise we're in a reasonable position to finish in the top four, especially given our relatively straightforward run in but I have a feeling our away performances will ultimately let us down. Hope I'm wrong though. I feel like getting top four could be huge for our progress this summer. Looking back, that injury to Bellerin (and to a lesser extent Sokratis) has really hurt us, I think a back four of Bellerin - Sokratis - Koscielny- Monreal may have been good enough to get us over the line

 

[Sniper Mik]

You say that but our form is not all that.

It's not but atleast we're at home for 3 of our next 4 PL fixtures

 

[Plutarch]

6-0 defeat for Chelsea puts us up to fifth

 

[hydrofluoric acid]

This is going to be a real heart breaker isn't it?

 

[Mrs Bergkamp]

We're still in the hunt but we have to take care of our own business. Sp**s haven't had a slump despite injuries. Chelsea are going through one atm and Utd still have the new manager bounce. I just can't call it but we shouldn't write ourselves off.

 

[Nyctophobia]

If we had won all the matches we should not have dropped points in, we would be tied for 1st place right now.

CRY 2-2 ARS
ARS 1-1 WOL
SOU 3-2 ARS
BHA 1-1 ARS
WHU 1-0 ARS

Despite losing to Man City twice, losing and drawing against Liverpool, losing to Chelsea once, and drawing against Man U.

I would say that considering (in my opinion) that our squad is significantly weaker than the other top five clubs this isn't too bad and if we can improve the coming season we won't be that far off from at least challenging for the title.

When you look at it like this you see that there isn't that much that separates us from the best and although it's the same story under Wenger, let's hope Emery can do what Wenger couldn't and push us up that last part of the hill.