Country: England
Having recently survived the first transfer window in a post-Brexit era, many Premier League and EFL clubs are already looking to maximise the market within the new regulations introduced by the FA.
A full description of exactly what Brexit means for English football has been reported previously by The Athletic. But put simply, the UK’s exit from the European Union means that players from the continent can no longer move freely into the country, with new entry requirements now in place.
Firstly, that prevents Premier League and EFL clubs from signing a player from overseas under the age of 18, while any new recruit from abroad must qualify for a “Governing Body Endorsement” (GBE).
What is GBE?
GBE is a points-based system, in which players need to earn at least 15 points to be eligible to play for a Premier League or EFL team. In the January transfer window, players with 10-14 points could appeal their case with an “Exceptions Panel”, but it is yet to be confirmed whether this will continue into the summer window.
A player’s eligibility is assessed by a range of factors, including:
Fortunately, sports analytics company, SciSports have developed their own GBE points calculator based on the FA’s criteria. This can provide clubs with an instant breakdown of a player’s eligibility in the recruitment process.
SciSports provide an extended breakdown of a player’s points through their individual Player Page. Let’s use an example with Christopher Nkunku — an established player in Europe who is easily eligible to play in the Premier League with 42 GBE points.
By playing in a successful RB Leipzig side within a strong league like the Bundesliga, Nkunku gains his GBE points from those factors alone. Additionally, playing in a continental competition like the Champions League provides further points, which increase as the team progresses. With Leipzig reaching the semi-final last season, Nkunku is credited further for this continental progression.
Which leagues have become more appealing?
Given the Nkunku example, it is unlikely that these regulations will affect the recruitment strategy of the so-called top clubs, as they will be in the hunt for players who are almost guaranteed to be eligible.
For other clubs, certain leagues like the German Bundesliga 2 or Norwegian Elitserien are unlikely to provide enough points for players, and will be more difficult to shop in under the new regulations. This means that clubs might have to be more creative and innovative in the market.
Leagues in Asia, North and South America have become more appealing to clubs under the new regulations. Most recently, Brighton’s signing of Moises Caicedo from Ecuadorian club Independiente del Valle for £5 million has been a high-profile example of this.
With Caicedo, his points eligibility was largely achieved having recently won the 2020 Under-20 Copa Libertadores and making his senior debut for the Ecuador national team.
With the help of SciSports, we take a closer look at some players and leagues to look out for in the coming transfer windows…
Thiago Almada (Velez Sarsfield) — GBE points: 20 (Eligible)
Thiago Almada is a young attacking midfielder currently plying his trade in Argentina with Velez Sarsfield. He’s versatile, having played out on the left wing, in centre of midfield, and as more of a playmaker too. That is in limited minutes though, so his pizza chart below, from Smarterscout Smarterscout (a site that gives players a rating from 0-99, relating to either how often a player does a given stylistic action compared with others playing in his position), is an aggregation of all of his metrics across positions.
Almada profiles as a tidy midfielder, with his involvement in possession largely to keep things ticking over. His xG from ball progression rating of 44 out of 99 is just below average for a Premier League player across each of the positions he’s played in, but does show an ability to get the ball upfield consistently. He does this largely through carrying the ball upfield, although this isn’t something he does a ton of when in possession.
Where Almada does excel is in his ability to beat opponents off the dribble. Smarterscout’s model, which merits or demerits a dribbler based on how good a one-on-one defender the player they are taking on is, gives Almada a rating of 92 out of 99 across midfield and out on the wings. The young Argentine dances around oncoming defenders with very good close control, perhaps making the nickname “Groove Almada” apt.
That’s a pretty good package given he is just 19 years of age. Almada will perhaps need to add goalscoring to his game to be more of an enticing option to Premier League clubs now but he’s certainly an interesting prospect to monitor going forward.
However, earlier this month, Almada and Velez team-mate Miguel Brizuela were charged with sexual assault and suspended by their club before returning to action in the Copa Argentina in midweek. Almada denies the charge.
Kaoru Mitoma (Kawasaki Frontale) — GBE points: 2 (Ineligible)
One player who isn’t currently eligible to clubs in the Premier League and EFL, but could make for an interesting feeder club option is Kawasaki Frontale’s Kaoru Mitoma. Mitoma put up some incredible numbers in the J League this season, scoring 13 goals and assisting 12 more for a Frontale side that set a J League record for most points and earliest title win in the league’s history.
That combination of 25 goal involvements in just 1,600 minutes of play in the league meant he averaged 1.4 goals or assists per 90 — truly peak-Messi numbers. Unsurprisingly then, smarterscout’s models are a big fan of Mitoma’s ability to contribute to scoring. He’s also an elite ball progressor too, with plenty of the value he adds to his side in possession coming from carrying the ball upfield.
He’s an above-average retainer of possession, as noted by his 66 out of 99 rating for ball retention, which is a model which considers, compared to the average player, how often a player retains possession in different situations.
Smarterscout’s similar players algorithm throws up Kingsley Coman, Gerard Deulofeu and Ansu Fati as a trio of statistical doppelgangers. Like Mitoma, they too are dribbling-first wingers who aren’t afraid to put in the defensive work either.
Realistically, it’s extremely unlikely that Mitoma would replicate that form at a higher level of competition, but the raw materials are there for him to become a useful player.
Mitoma is thought to have been tracked by Brighton during the summer and winter transfer windows, and you can imagine him popping up at a European feeder club at some point in the future if he replicates his 2020 form in the J League in 2021.
Pedro (Flamengo) — GBE points: 22 (Eligible)
Pedro has had a taste of European football following a brief, unsuccessful stint for Fiorentina in Serie A. The 23-year old made just four substitute appearances in Italy and returned to his native country where his performances for Flamengo led to his first cap for the Brazil team in November.
Looking at smarterscout, you can see that Pedro is very much a poacher in his style. His attacking metrics show him as someone who is quick to get a shot away (shot volume 99 out of 99) and operates largely within the area (receptions in the box 97 out of 99).
His actions contribute strongly to his team creating goalscoring chances (xG from shot creation 87 out of 99), and he has been prolific in front of goal himself, scoring 13 times in 32 appearances in the Brazilian Serie A this season. Smarterscout shows the Brazilian to be similar in style to Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham and Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez.
Pedro’s GBE eligibility is boosted by the quality of club he is playing for. Flamengo were Copa Libertadores winners in 2019, and being one of the best teams in Brazil accounts for eight of the 15 points required.
His recent appearance for Brazil has also contributed nine points towards his GBE count, which easily puts him over the threshold for eligibility. He has already shown he is willing to make the move across to Europe, and at 23 has plenty of time to develop his game to compete with the best in the Premier League.
Aslak Fonn Witry (Djurgarden) — GBE points: 12 (Appeal)
Perhaps another lesser-known player from a lesser-known league but Aslak Fonn Witry is the perfect example of a player who could benefit from the new FA regulations as clubs search for a hidden gem.
The Norwegian right-back has been an ever-present for Djurgarden in the Swedish Allsvenskan, and profiles strongly for a player in his position. His output going forward is particularly impressive as he frequently looks to support the attack, and is not shy of getting a shot away himself.
Witry is particularly adept at crossing from wide with pace and precision — regularly getting the ball into dangerous areas (xG from ball progression 93 out of 99). His rate of 0.20 assists per 90 last season was the fifth-best in the league for a defender, hence why he rates highly for creating chances for his team (90 out of 99 for xG from shot creation).
This is matched by strong defensive output, where Witry’s robust physique means he is aggressive and proactive in the challenge (defending intensity 88 out of 99). He senses danger well and regularly picks up on loose balls (ball recoveries and interceptions 87 out of 99).
Smarterscout shows Witry to be similar in style to the likes of Luke Ayling at Leeds and Rangers captain James Tavernier — as a player who is strong defensively but very able to get forward and support the attack. At 24 years old, it looks like Witry could certainly cut it in the Premier League — his GBE eligibility is currently below the threshold of 15 points but this could go to an appeal, or Witry may accrue more more points in the near future with an international call-up.
Diego Rossi (Los Angeles FC) — GBE points: 15 (Eligible)
Diego Rossi is a goalscoring winger for MLS’s Los Angeles FC. Since joining in 2018 from Penarol in his native Uruguay, Rossi has been prolific for a winger averaging 0.51 non-penalty goals per 90 across his MLS career. This season he’s pushed on even more, scoring 14 goals and finishing as the golden boot winner.
Looking at his pizza chart below illustrates a player who has a high tendency to shoot and receives the ball plenty in the box, but his ratings for xG from shot creation — effectively a measure of his contributions to creating shots — is below the average of 50 out of 99. This is mainly because MLS is a weaker league compared to the Premier League, which smarterscout looks to adjust for based on how previous moves between the leagues directly (e.g. MLS to Premier League) or indirectly (e.g. MLS to Bundesliga to Premier League) have played out.
Rossi’s limited defensive output points to him perhaps not being a player suited to replicate the sort of move Miguel Almiron made to Newcastle United back in 2018. Almiron was the last outfield player to move from MLS to the Premier League, and has changed from being an all-action attacker to a more defensive-minded option out wide for Steve Bruce.
Rossi was allegedly sought after by Reading during the January transfer window, but ultimately a move never materialised. If it did happen, Rossi would have been the second MLS import of the window to the Championship, with Seattle Sounders’ Jordan Morris joining Swansea City on loan.
Rossi is the sort of player that clubs will be monitoring, especially sides who are looking for an attacking winger who isn’t required to do too much when his side is out of possession.
Rafael Santos Borre (River Plate) — GBE points: 30 (Eligible)
Another South American player who has experience playing in Europe — having had spells at Atletico Madrid and Villareal — is Rafael Santos Borre. The Colombian has been doing well for River Plate in the Argentine Primera Division and has recently attracted attention from Premier League clubs.
As River Plate are only five games into their current season, we can look at Santos Borre’s profile from last campaign. Stylistically, he is a player who can play as a traditional No 9, regularly getting on the end of attacks (receptions in the opposition box 95 out of 99).
His 12 goals in 20 league appearances is a strong return, with a rate of 0.8 goals per 90 being one of the best in the league. But goals are not the only part of his game. He also drops off to regularly get involved in the play — as shown by his 97 out of 99 link-up play volume.
Smarterscout profiles him similarly to players like Alexandre Lacazette and Gabriel Jesus — a centre-forward who can score, but also likes to be involved in the build-up, and works hard for the team.
The 25-year old has also been an ever-present for River Plate in the Copa Libertadores, scoring seven goals in 11 games as they narrowly lost against Palmeiras in the semi-final last month. These minutes and progression in the Copa Libertadores account for 17 GBE points in itself, which highlights the value for British clubs to look for players who have played in continental competitions.
So, there you have it. A whistle-stop tour of just some of the leagues and players that have become increasingly appealing in light of the new regulations introduced by the FA.
There will undoubtedly be many more on the radar of clubs across the Premier League and EFL, but don’t be surprised if you see that clubs are shopping in less familiar leagues in the coming transfer windows.
A full description of exactly what Brexit means for English football has been reported previously by The Athletic. But put simply, the UK’s exit from the European Union means that players from the continent can no longer move freely into the country, with new entry requirements now in place.
Firstly, that prevents Premier League and EFL clubs from signing a player from overseas under the age of 18, while any new recruit from abroad must qualify for a “Governing Body Endorsement” (GBE).
What is GBE?
GBE is a points-based system, in which players need to earn at least 15 points to be eligible to play for a Premier League or EFL team. In the January transfer window, players with 10-14 points could appeal their case with an “Exceptions Panel”, but it is yet to be confirmed whether this will continue into the summer window.
A player’s eligibility is assessed by a range of factors, including:
- League quality
- Domestic minutes
- Continental minutes
- International appearances
- Final league position
- Continental progression
Fortunately, sports analytics company, SciSports have developed their own GBE points calculator based on the FA’s criteria. This can provide clubs with an instant breakdown of a player’s eligibility in the recruitment process.
SciSports provide an extended breakdown of a player’s points through their individual Player Page. Let’s use an example with Christopher Nkunku — an established player in Europe who is easily eligible to play in the Premier League with 42 GBE points.
By playing in a successful RB Leipzig side within a strong league like the Bundesliga, Nkunku gains his GBE points from those factors alone. Additionally, playing in a continental competition like the Champions League provides further points, which increase as the team progresses. With Leipzig reaching the semi-final last season, Nkunku is credited further for this continental progression.
Which leagues have become more appealing?
Given the Nkunku example, it is unlikely that these regulations will affect the recruitment strategy of the so-called top clubs, as they will be in the hunt for players who are almost guaranteed to be eligible.
For other clubs, certain leagues like the German Bundesliga 2 or Norwegian Elitserien are unlikely to provide enough points for players, and will be more difficult to shop in under the new regulations. This means that clubs might have to be more creative and innovative in the market.
Leagues in Asia, North and South America have become more appealing to clubs under the new regulations. Most recently, Brighton’s signing of Moises Caicedo from Ecuadorian club Independiente del Valle for £5 million has been a high-profile example of this.
With Caicedo, his points eligibility was largely achieved having recently won the 2020 Under-20 Copa Libertadores and making his senior debut for the Ecuador national team.
With the help of SciSports, we take a closer look at some players and leagues to look out for in the coming transfer windows…
Thiago Almada (Velez Sarsfield) — GBE points: 20 (Eligible)
Thiago Almada is a young attacking midfielder currently plying his trade in Argentina with Velez Sarsfield. He’s versatile, having played out on the left wing, in centre of midfield, and as more of a playmaker too. That is in limited minutes though, so his pizza chart below, from Smarterscout Smarterscout (a site that gives players a rating from 0-99, relating to either how often a player does a given stylistic action compared with others playing in his position), is an aggregation of all of his metrics across positions.
Almada profiles as a tidy midfielder, with his involvement in possession largely to keep things ticking over. His xG from ball progression rating of 44 out of 99 is just below average for a Premier League player across each of the positions he’s played in, but does show an ability to get the ball upfield consistently. He does this largely through carrying the ball upfield, although this isn’t something he does a ton of when in possession.
Where Almada does excel is in his ability to beat opponents off the dribble. Smarterscout’s model, which merits or demerits a dribbler based on how good a one-on-one defender the player they are taking on is, gives Almada a rating of 92 out of 99 across midfield and out on the wings. The young Argentine dances around oncoming defenders with very good close control, perhaps making the nickname “Groove Almada” apt.
That’s a pretty good package given he is just 19 years of age. Almada will perhaps need to add goalscoring to his game to be more of an enticing option to Premier League clubs now but he’s certainly an interesting prospect to monitor going forward.
However, earlier this month, Almada and Velez team-mate Miguel Brizuela were charged with sexual assault and suspended by their club before returning to action in the Copa Argentina in midweek. Almada denies the charge.
Kaoru Mitoma (Kawasaki Frontale) — GBE points: 2 (Ineligible)
One player who isn’t currently eligible to clubs in the Premier League and EFL, but could make for an interesting feeder club option is Kawasaki Frontale’s Kaoru Mitoma. Mitoma put up some incredible numbers in the J League this season, scoring 13 goals and assisting 12 more for a Frontale side that set a J League record for most points and earliest title win in the league’s history.
That combination of 25 goal involvements in just 1,600 minutes of play in the league meant he averaged 1.4 goals or assists per 90 — truly peak-Messi numbers. Unsurprisingly then, smarterscout’s models are a big fan of Mitoma’s ability to contribute to scoring. He’s also an elite ball progressor too, with plenty of the value he adds to his side in possession coming from carrying the ball upfield.
He’s an above-average retainer of possession, as noted by his 66 out of 99 rating for ball retention, which is a model which considers, compared to the average player, how often a player retains possession in different situations.
Smarterscout’s similar players algorithm throws up Kingsley Coman, Gerard Deulofeu and Ansu Fati as a trio of statistical doppelgangers. Like Mitoma, they too are dribbling-first wingers who aren’t afraid to put in the defensive work either.
Realistically, it’s extremely unlikely that Mitoma would replicate that form at a higher level of competition, but the raw materials are there for him to become a useful player.
Mitoma is thought to have been tracked by Brighton during the summer and winter transfer windows, and you can imagine him popping up at a European feeder club at some point in the future if he replicates his 2020 form in the J League in 2021.
Pedro (Flamengo) — GBE points: 22 (Eligible)
Pedro has had a taste of European football following a brief, unsuccessful stint for Fiorentina in Serie A. The 23-year old made just four substitute appearances in Italy and returned to his native country where his performances for Flamengo led to his first cap for the Brazil team in November.
Looking at smarterscout, you can see that Pedro is very much a poacher in his style. His attacking metrics show him as someone who is quick to get a shot away (shot volume 99 out of 99) and operates largely within the area (receptions in the box 97 out of 99).
His actions contribute strongly to his team creating goalscoring chances (xG from shot creation 87 out of 99), and he has been prolific in front of goal himself, scoring 13 times in 32 appearances in the Brazilian Serie A this season. Smarterscout shows the Brazilian to be similar in style to Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham and Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez.
Pedro’s GBE eligibility is boosted by the quality of club he is playing for. Flamengo were Copa Libertadores winners in 2019, and being one of the best teams in Brazil accounts for eight of the 15 points required.
His recent appearance for Brazil has also contributed nine points towards his GBE count, which easily puts him over the threshold for eligibility. He has already shown he is willing to make the move across to Europe, and at 23 has plenty of time to develop his game to compete with the best in the Premier League.
Aslak Fonn Witry (Djurgarden) — GBE points: 12 (Appeal)
Perhaps another lesser-known player from a lesser-known league but Aslak Fonn Witry is the perfect example of a player who could benefit from the new FA regulations as clubs search for a hidden gem.
The Norwegian right-back has been an ever-present for Djurgarden in the Swedish Allsvenskan, and profiles strongly for a player in his position. His output going forward is particularly impressive as he frequently looks to support the attack, and is not shy of getting a shot away himself.
Witry is particularly adept at crossing from wide with pace and precision — regularly getting the ball into dangerous areas (xG from ball progression 93 out of 99). His rate of 0.20 assists per 90 last season was the fifth-best in the league for a defender, hence why he rates highly for creating chances for his team (90 out of 99 for xG from shot creation).
This is matched by strong defensive output, where Witry’s robust physique means he is aggressive and proactive in the challenge (defending intensity 88 out of 99). He senses danger well and regularly picks up on loose balls (ball recoveries and interceptions 87 out of 99).
Smarterscout shows Witry to be similar in style to the likes of Luke Ayling at Leeds and Rangers captain James Tavernier — as a player who is strong defensively but very able to get forward and support the attack. At 24 years old, it looks like Witry could certainly cut it in the Premier League — his GBE eligibility is currently below the threshold of 15 points but this could go to an appeal, or Witry may accrue more more points in the near future with an international call-up.
Diego Rossi (Los Angeles FC) — GBE points: 15 (Eligible)
Diego Rossi is a goalscoring winger for MLS’s Los Angeles FC. Since joining in 2018 from Penarol in his native Uruguay, Rossi has been prolific for a winger averaging 0.51 non-penalty goals per 90 across his MLS career. This season he’s pushed on even more, scoring 14 goals and finishing as the golden boot winner.
Looking at his pizza chart below illustrates a player who has a high tendency to shoot and receives the ball plenty in the box, but his ratings for xG from shot creation — effectively a measure of his contributions to creating shots — is below the average of 50 out of 99. This is mainly because MLS is a weaker league compared to the Premier League, which smarterscout looks to adjust for based on how previous moves between the leagues directly (e.g. MLS to Premier League) or indirectly (e.g. MLS to Bundesliga to Premier League) have played out.
Rossi’s limited defensive output points to him perhaps not being a player suited to replicate the sort of move Miguel Almiron made to Newcastle United back in 2018. Almiron was the last outfield player to move from MLS to the Premier League, and has changed from being an all-action attacker to a more defensive-minded option out wide for Steve Bruce.
Rossi was allegedly sought after by Reading during the January transfer window, but ultimately a move never materialised. If it did happen, Rossi would have been the second MLS import of the window to the Championship, with Seattle Sounders’ Jordan Morris joining Swansea City on loan.
Rossi is the sort of player that clubs will be monitoring, especially sides who are looking for an attacking winger who isn’t required to do too much when his side is out of possession.
Rafael Santos Borre (River Plate) — GBE points: 30 (Eligible)
Another South American player who has experience playing in Europe — having had spells at Atletico Madrid and Villareal — is Rafael Santos Borre. The Colombian has been doing well for River Plate in the Argentine Primera Division and has recently attracted attention from Premier League clubs.
As River Plate are only five games into their current season, we can look at Santos Borre’s profile from last campaign. Stylistically, he is a player who can play as a traditional No 9, regularly getting on the end of attacks (receptions in the opposition box 95 out of 99).
His 12 goals in 20 league appearances is a strong return, with a rate of 0.8 goals per 90 being one of the best in the league. But goals are not the only part of his game. He also drops off to regularly get involved in the play — as shown by his 97 out of 99 link-up play volume.
Smarterscout profiles him similarly to players like Alexandre Lacazette and Gabriel Jesus — a centre-forward who can score, but also likes to be involved in the build-up, and works hard for the team.
The 25-year old has also been an ever-present for River Plate in the Copa Libertadores, scoring seven goals in 11 games as they narrowly lost against Palmeiras in the semi-final last month. These minutes and progression in the Copa Libertadores account for 17 GBE points in itself, which highlights the value for British clubs to look for players who have played in continental competitions.
So, there you have it. A whistle-stop tour of just some of the leagues and players that have become increasingly appealing in light of the new regulations introduced by the FA.
There will undoubtedly be many more on the radar of clubs across the Premier League and EFL, but don’t be surprised if you see that clubs are shopping in less familiar leagues in the coming transfer windows.
- We would like to thank SciSports for their support in the writing of this article. Their GBE points calculatoris now available both in-app & via API services.
