Mikel Arteta: Aston La Vista To The Title?

[kash2]

Go and look up Gamblers Fallacy on wikipaedia bro. The maths is all there. Past history has no impact on the odds of an event occurring. Odds can’t have a memory.

people here thinking if you flipped a coin for heads.. then the next time the coin out of a sense of fairness, will try to come up tails.



lol.. to think you were trying for years, to use data to make your point here...

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Go and look up Gamblers Fallacy on wikipaedia bro. The maths is all there. Past history has no impact on the odds of an event occurring. Odds can’t have a memory.

Of course it has an impact. That's why there's hurricanes every year in certain months in certain areas of the world. Hurricane season.

Thats why in the stock market stocks bounce of previous levels of support and resistance sometimes from months and years back.

Footballers will be effected mentally by previous results, same goes for football teams. These things can run for years and years at a time. The longer they go on the more of a mental block it is.

To say past history has no impact on an event occurring is pretty blasphemous. There's a reason why people don't take your squad cost argument seriously.

 

[kash2]

Of course it has an impact. That's why there's hurricanes every year in certain months in certain areas of the world. Hurricane season.

Thats why in the stock market stocks bounce of previous levels of support and resistance sometimes from months and years back.

Footballers will be effected mentally by previous results, same goes for football teams. These things can run for years and years at a time. The longer they go on the more of a mental block it is.

To say past history has no impact on an event occurring is pretty blasphemous. There's a reason why people don't take your squad cost argument seriously.

and the earth is flat

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Its an interesting topic. While I always understood it to be independent 1 toss/roll 50/50 if looking at the longer game I believed that there was something that would favour you with black had 15 reds come out based on consecutive odds. I'm no expert so could well be wrong but if something consecutive is so unlikely I would have thought there could be a formula for consecutive v next spin figure.

I can understand if you struggle with the concept of probabilities as it is easy to mix two correct statements and draw the wrong conclusion. The answer to your last sentence when you write: "I would have thought there could be a formula for consecutive v next spin figure." is a clear no in the way that, because you have had one result earlier, you should get a different result in a subsequent independent event. The previous event does not impact the probability of a subsequent event. Before you flip the coin the first time there is a probability for getting heads once, twice, three etc. times in a row. Once you have flipped that coin once and know the result the probabilities fully reset and you have exactly the same probability again for getting heads once, twice, three etc. times in a row.

Above you also mention "law of equilibrium". Not sure what you refer to if it is in chemistry, economics etc. but it isn't a probability concept it the form that everything needs to even out.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

To say past history has no impact on an event occurring is pretty blasphemous. There's a reason why people don't take your squad cost argument seriously.

This is not what he is saying. You are mixing two different concepts. One is the probability of independent events like one coin flip, followed by another coin flip. That remains 50/50 each time.

No one is saying that previous events don't impact the probability of future events in the form of say Man City being in good form and them having a 85% likelihood of beating Sheffield United. That likelihood is because of previous history.

 

[Hunta]

Awful thread, need football back so we can celebrate 9th and a close defeat.

 

[14Henry]

I can understand if you struggle with the concept of probabilities as it is easy to mix two correct statements and draw the wrong conclusion. The answer to your last sentence when you write: "I would have thought there could be a formula for consecutive v next spin figure." is a clear no in the way that, because you have had one result earlier, you should get a different result in a subsequent independent event. The previous event does not impact the probability of a subsequent event. Before you flip the coin the first time there is a probability for getting heads once, twice, three etc. times in a row. Once you have flipped that coin once and know the result the probabilities fully reset and you have exactly the same probability again for getting heads once, twice, three etc. times in a row.

Above you also mention "law of equilibrium". Not sure what you refer to if it is in chemistry, economics etc. but it isn't a probability concept it the form that everything needs to even out.

I merely thought that if playing say 1000 spins on a 50/50 outcome roulette and the first 300 spins were red that the probability that in the next 700 there would be a higher % of blacks than reds was more likely given that results based on probability should see the number of reds and blacks be similar.

I'm not saying it has to run 50/50 but I would have thought over a long term sample size the odds would favour black that red. Obviously I should give the casino a miss.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

and the earth is flat

Nothing i just posted is even near that level but cheers.

 

[kash2]

Nothing i just posted is even near that level but cheers.

cheers mate. lets wish for
good skillful football rather than depend on luck.

just curious .. out of this lot .. which 2-3 players do you see forming the core of the eventual arteta team that challenges a few years down the line

 

[Kav]

Wow been gone a few days and the thread has morphed into this mess. It’s been interesting to read.

I can see why some people make such poor arguments with their level of reasoning.

That being said I want to know what constitutes success for this season. I am pretty clear that I don’t think Arteta is the managerial solution for getting us into the top 4 or challenging for a title. However he will most certainly be here until the end of the season. So how do we objectively assess him.

Usually we look at the results and the table but his fans will certainly tell us to ignore the table. So how do we measure any progress that mid table Mik is bringing?

 

[14Henry]

Wow been gone a few days and the thread has morphed into this mess. It’s been interesting to read.

I can see why some people make such poor arguments with their level of reasoning.

That being said I want to know what constitutes success for this season. I am pretty clear that I don’t think Arteta is the managerial solution for getting us into the top 4 or challenging for a title. However he will most certainly be here until the end of the season. So how do we objectively assess him.

Usually we look at the results and the table but his fans will certainly tell us to ignore the table. So how do we measure any progress that mid table Mik is bringing?

Personally for me he has to deliver EL football obviously via the league or win the EL while having a relatively strong finish in the league.

Winning the EL while losing most of the league games and finishing like 11th or 12th for me isn't success or progression. Not enough to make me think he can change.

A strong finish in the league coming 6th and maybe losing in the final of the EL I would be content to give him 1 more season.

Having us with EL football guaranteed and in the final of the EL with the chance to get CL football I would be delighted.

 

[El Duderino]

 

[El Duderino]

Awful thread, need football back so we can celebrate 9th and a close defeat.

From what I understand, if a butterfly flaps its wings in Asia, Liverpool have a 50/50 chance of being relegated and us finishing 2nd in the league.

 

[Blaziken]

Awful thread, need football back so we can celebrate 9th and a close defeat.

Out of our 11 defeats, we only lost with one goal on 8 of the games!!!!!!!!

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Obviously I should give the casino a miss.

It is good to know ones own weaknesses...

Like I wrote, it is easy to get these concepts a bit muddled up. Happens to a lot of people.

 

[Blood on the Tracks]

Here's a question.

For the Arteta Outer's what would you say is the best managerial quality he has shown so far?

And For the Arteta In folks what do you think is the biggest weakness / flaw he has shown so far? Taking general inexperience off the table as that's too obvious.

If you're undecided on Arteta what is his biggest strength and his biggest weakness so far in your opinion?

 

[Trilly]

Yet you're happy to do it for Pepe

Do what? I’m wiping the floor with you Arteta boys.

You can acknowledge a players skill-set based on what they’ve shown in other leagues.

I say Pepe is a talented player based on what he’s shown in France but I wouldn’t call him a proven PL player who makes up part of a quality PL squad. Unless he shows it.

Try again though.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

cheers mate. lets wish for
good skillful football rather than depend on luck.

just curious .. out of this lot .. which 2-3 players do you see forming the core of the eventual arteta team that challenges a few years down the line

I think Leno, Tierney, Saliba, Partey, Saka, Ødegaard and Martinelli will be key. Yes I think we will sign Martin permanently. Just about development and who we add.

 

[Trilly]

Imo they're all quality players though. Let them adapt and get into form while Chelsea adding more quality, having started with a proper manager, I think they could be able to pull a Klopp/Liverpool. Imagine those already bought hit form and they add Haaland, a proper CM and CB. Not saying they will, but would be an absolute force imo.

Agree that they’ve all shown quality in the past, but the logic being used to diminish what Tuchel is doing goes along the lines of ‘he’s inherited all these players who are making his job easier’.

What he’s actually inherited are a bunch of players who aren’t playing as well as they can/could be because they’re still currently adapting to the league. It’s a talented squad but it’s actually a difficult job because their performances are yet to match their ability.

The fact he’s immediately turning that talent into points means he’s doing well, people are going on like it’s easy.

 

[Trilly]

Chilwell...?

They gave Chilwell we have Tierney?