Gabriel Jesus: Will He Score Again?

[Trilly]

Luckily Jesus has come in and we don't have to worry about it, but it makes me very reluctant to write off a player under Arteta.

Arteta’s system is very, very specific and requires unique (combinations of) attributes for certain players.

We’ve sold some good players who didn’t work under him and they’ve shown that they’re actually nowhere near as bad as they looked here. Willian, Laca, Auba, Tavares and even Pepe have looked better since leaving. Willian is the most surprising because I was so convinced he was the most finished guy I’d ever seen.

No need to slag off guys who have left recently as I don’t think they’re anywhere near as bad as Mustafi and them man. Not being an Arteta player doesn’t make you a bad player you could build an all start team with the guys Pep has discarded for example.

 

[db10_therza]

You're assuming though that the existing players can not continue to do what they are doing - i.e. be 5pts clear over 14 games. Why can't they be 10 points clear after 28 games?
I struggle to see what different dimension we need given the results.

I get that it's perhaps prudent to try and cover all the bases - but nothing is really ever assured. We could sign a new striker and be worse off. Look at City. They have a brilliant striker who has scored 18 goals in 14 games, yet they are on course to finish with less points than they did last year. I don't think the changes they made have really helped them at all, but they certainly have another dimension to their game!

Nah man. We’re assuming they might pick up injuries at some point…

 

[db10_therza]

Arteta’s system is very, very specific and requires unique (combinations of) attributes for certain players.

We’ve sold some good players who didn’t work under him and they’ve shown that they’re actually nowhere near as bad as they looked here. Willian, Laca, Auba, Tavares and even Pepe have looked better since leaving. Willian is the most surprising because I was so convinced he was the most finished guy I’d ever seen.

No need to slag off guys who have left recently as I don’t think they’re anywhere near as bad as Mustafi and them man. Not being an Arteta player doesn’t make you a bad player you could build an all start team with the guys Pep has discarded for example.

I would hate to be your girlfriend for SO MANY REASONS. But one of the biggest would have to be your incessant pining over your exes and equally consistently moaning “why can’t you just finish!” every night.

Dunno how @Lady_Gooner puts up with you tbh.

 

[2Smokeyy]

You're assuming though that the existing players can not continue to do what they are doing - i.e. be 5pts clear over 14 games. Why can't they be 10 points clear after 28 games?
I struggle to see what different dimension we need given the results.

I get that it's perhaps prudent to try and cover all the bases - but nothing is really ever assured. We could sign a new striker and be worse off. Look at City. They have a brilliant striker who has scored 18 goals in 14 games, yet they are on course to finish with less points than they did last year. I don't think the changes they made have really helped them at all, but they certainly have another dimension to their game!

I’m sorry but this is a ridiculous post, I can’t agree with anything you just posted above.

My judgement is all based on empiricism which is a fair assessment. Why risk it all when we know what happened last season? Sp**s signed Bentancur and Kulusevski in January and beat us to top 4 when our squad was thin - it’s actually ridiculous that someone can come with this sort of mindset.

Not trying to act like a know it all but a lot of the things I’ve called lately have been bang on. When we signed Lokonga I was beefing a lot on here (possibly including yourself wherever you were) who said that he’ll be a good signing as at the time I did say that we had bigger priorities to be addressed than signing another kid from the Belgian League, roll on a year and a half later and everyone is saying he’s not good enough.

The level of quality between the trio of (Saka/Martinelli/Jesus) then those on the bench is very noticeable and will cost us eventually.

 

[blrgooner]

Nah man. We’re assuming they might pick up injuries at some point…

Well, there are two claims to be made here
1) We are short in terms of attacking players and if there are injuries etc, we may not have adequate replacement within our squad and thus, we need reinforcements.
2) We are short of goals from the striker position and we need a striker to come in and provide another option up front.

I agree with claim 1 and I think we need reinforcements. The discussion here in Jesus thread with the context of Jesus`s lean spell is mostly claim 2 from what I can see though and that I am not sure I agree.
For me, Jesus is one of the best no9 in the world and with him in the team, we have been the second best attacking team in the league.
Just as an example, If we can get Felix or Toney, I would rather prefer Felix though Toney is more of a natural goal scorer(and a good player too). This is because in my view, he suits our system better. This is of course not considering other factors like league, physicality etc.

 

[db10_therza]

Well, there are two claims to be made here
1) We are short in terms of attacking players and if there are injuries etc, we may not have adequate replacement within our squad and thus, we need reinforcements.
2) We are short of goals from the striker position and we need a striker to come in and provide another option up front.

I agree with claim 1 and I think we need reinforcements. The discussion here in Jesus thread with the context of Jesus`s lean spell is mostly claim 2 from what I can see though and that I am not sure I agree.
For me, Jesus is one of the best no9 in the world and with him in the team, we have been the second best attacking team in the league.
Just as an example, If we can get Felix or Toney, I would rather prefer Felix though Toney is more of a natural goal scorer(and a good player too). This is because in my view, he suits our system better. This is of course not considering other factors like league, physicality etc.

Yeah I mean I think it should be clear from my previous posts on this that I wouldn’t change Jesus for anyone at this point in time. I would however “like” him to put away more of his chances, but that’s a given. And applies to everyone.

There’s a legitimate argument to have a planB though. That’s what a Toney type player is for. Not to start, but to come on and change games where we need a goal or 2. I’m actually torn on this, I’ve asked it before in another thread. Essentially should we get in a “Jesus-light” that can slot in if the main man is injured, or do we get a planB striker (that would come in when Jesus is injured but necessitate a change in style of play and build up or to come on when we’re chasing games)

 

[Deleted member 102404]

I’m sorry but this is a ridiculous post, I can’t agree with anything you just posted above.

My judgement is all based on empiricism which is a fair assessment. Why risk it all when we know what happened last season? Sp**s signed Bentancur and Kulusevski in January and beat us to top 4 when our squad was thin - it’s actually ridiculous that someone can come with this sort of mindset.

Not trying to act like a know it all but a lot of the things I’ve called lately have been bang on. When we signed Lokonga I was beefing a lot on here (possibly including yourself wherever you were) who said that he’ll be a good signing as at the time I did say that we had bigger priorities to be addressed than signing another kid from the Belgian League, roll on a year and a half later and everyone is saying he’s not good enough.

The level of quality between the trio of (Saka/Martinelli/Jesus) then those on the bench is very noticeable and will cost us eventually.

The Sp**s example from last season is not common. It's way over used. How often do January signings change a season? Not often. We don't actually need to change our season either. We need to continue as we are, so the only argument really is that we might get injuries. So might every other club. City get injuries to Haaland and DeBryne and their title challenge is over. Should they go and splash on a DeBryne back up and a better player than Alvarez as a back up to Haaland, because they'll be heavily weakened if they are out?

As for last year, it actually wasn't Sp**s signings that stopped us getting top 4 anyway. We just screwed up at the end - because our players were just too inexperienced. You could say we should have brought in more experience, but then I think it is necessary for young players to go through what we did last year and get the experience of situations they will face ongoing. I am far more interested in the club maintaining this young squad over many years and letting them grow together into something special.

I do get the fear of injuries, of course, but I am not convinced that trying to mitigate all eventualities wrt to injuries is either possible or appropriate. I don't think squads are built that way - and I don't believe any club has a second team as good as the first, or has ever had.

Still doesn't make sense to me that there are so many calls for new signings in January to the extent it's 'unacceptable' if we don't. We're top, we have just had Elneny come back for depth and ESR is coming back also. I wouldn't mind a Lakonga replacement, but I just don't see where else we are short.

Look, I am not adverse to new signings in January - if the club think it's the right thing to do, I will be happy anyway. I am just not in the camp that thinks there is some imperative or we're screwed if we don't bring in new players. Thought the same last year too, even when we missed out on top 4. I don't want to try and position myself as a know it all either - been wrong many times and was even a big Arteta Out fan at one point - but I have seen and talked about the progress we have been making since Dec 2020 and am comfortable and supportive that the squad build takes time.

 

[blrgooner]

Yeah I mean I think it should be clear from my previous posts on this that I wouldn’t change Jesus for anyone at this point in time. I would however “like” him to put away more of his chances, but that’s a given. And applies to everyone.

There’s a legitimate argument to have a planB though. That’s what a Toney type player is for. Not to start, but to come on and change games where we need a goal or 2. I’m actually torn on this, I’ve asked it before in another thread. Essentially should we get in a “Jesus-light” that can slot in if the main man is injured, or do we get a planB striker (that would come in when Jesus is injured but necessitate a change in style of play and build up or to come on when we’re chasing games)

Yeah but then if it is a plan B striker we are looking for, then many of the other arguments being made in this thread are not really valid IMO. For example, there is an argument that in tough games, we might get only one chance and we need a clinical striker to put them away. Now this doesn`t really work with the "Plan B" argument because in this tough game, the plan B striker is unlikely to be playing in the first place (Because ideally we would want plan A to work).

I know that is not what you are saying, but this is why I feel the Jesus needs to score more argument strange. What we need is for Arsenal to score more. For Arsenal to score more, we need the system to work as well as possible and Jesus helps us there. The result maybe that the goals get distributed but that is a good thing and we should be happy with that.
I believe that if we had brought in the best striker we could get for less than 100m(Not considering likes of Lewa/Benzema/Kane/Haaland etc) instead of Jesus, we would not have necessarily scored more goals till now.

 

[Trilly]

Let's add some context to these numbers:

Messi: 7 goals and 10 assists in 1132 minutes. 0 penalties.

Neymar: 11 goals and 9 assists in 1085 minutes. 2 penalties.

Lacazette: 9 goals and 3 assists in 1303 minutes. 2 penalties.

Obviously if you go into the more advanced stats Laca gets crushed, but that's to be expected.

And to counter the narrative on here of Laca being more of a box striker at Lyon: Laca is currently averaging around 70% more passes per game than he did last year for Arsenal. He is creating around double the amount of chances for teammates as well.

He is on average further up the pitch than the extremes we saw last season, no denying that. But the answer to his performances lie way more in the fact that the French league is pretty damn poor compared to the Prem. He's also missed a fairly significant amount of good chances this season, something he's done his entire career tbf, never was that clinical.

This is a compilation of him from this season:



The amount of time and space compared to the Prem is always eye catching to me when I watch Ligue 1.

But to summarize, obviously he's playing better than he did last season, but this isn't some incredible transformation. He's simply gotten a bit of confidence back and is playing around his 20/21 level, which is a 10-15 goal a season PL striker now playing in a much worse league, hence the number inflation.

Wow you really went out of your way to bring him down just to say he’s playing better anyway?

…why? I think I know why tbh.

 

[Deleted member 102404]

Nah man. We’re assuming they might pick up injuries at some point…

Yeah, I get that, but which players are going to get injured?

 

[KrissKringle]

I never understood Arteta making someone do something they clearly couldn't do. Not only was 100% of the blame on the in-capabilities of Laca like it always is with Arteta, but Eddie was also right there who has the engine and the willingness.

It wasn't only Arteta that underused him. It happened under Wenger as well. The only one that utilized him well was Emery.

Laca got a raw deal here and had to carry the piano so Auba could shine. People always criticized his lack of stamina, but when you're a fox in the box and you're asked to run up and down the pitch to help out your midfield of course your output is going to take a big hit.

On top of that he was always giving 100% for the 60-65 minutes until he got gassed, which is not something I can say about Auba in terms of effort.

 

[Trilly]

Hmmm which one do you think is more necessary for us to sign in January? A wide player or a 15-20+ goal striker with Jesus being an option out wide?

I’m starting to lean towards the latter tbh since those goals could be crucial in us winning the title.

Wide player is the easy option, with Jesus being good enough as your main goalscorer for a top four push.

If you want to win the league though we’re going to need a serious goal scorer that can play with Jesus. We don’t have the facilities to share the goals like City did last season.

 

[db10_therza]

Yeah, I get that, but which players are going to get injured?

Partey and Jesus are the obvious ones we have no real replacement for in the context of a title charge. And even with Saka/Nelli there is a big big step down in terms of quality. You expect a step down of course, but not one as big as we have.

 

[El Duderino]

Well, there are two claims to be made here
1) We are short in terms of attacking players and if there are injuries etc, we may not have adequate replacement within our squad and thus, we need reinforcements.
2) We are short of goals from the striker position and we need a striker to come in and provide another option up front.

I agree with claim 1 and I think we need reinforcements. The discussion here in Jesus thread with the context of Jesus`s lean spell is mostly claim 2 from what I can see though and that I am not sure I agree.
For me, Jesus is one of the best no9 in the world and with him in the team, we have been the second best attacking team in the league.
Just as an example, If we can get Felix or Toney, I would rather prefer Felix though Toney is more of a natural goal scorer(and a good player too). This is because in my view, he suits our system better. This is of course not considering other factors like league, physicality etc.

I think Toney-like player would be a good fit for the squad.

It's more about evolution, than revolution.

Not like if we signed him or someone of that skillset that Jesus wouldn't start at 9 at a bunch of games. It's all about taking the squad up a level and having alternatives and maximize the number of players who can pick up the slack when our main guys are doing well in one aspect or another.

We'll see how far Arteta trusts his squad as the fitness redline post WC + fixture congestion nears. Think the lack of a more convencional 9 as far as transfer links goes, tells me he trusts eddie and wants another wide goal scorer.

 

[Trilly]

We could sign a new striker and be worse off. Look at City. They have a brilliant striker who has scored 18 goals in 14 games, yet they are on course to finish with less points than they did last year.

This is maybe the 10th time I’ve seen this mentioned as a kind of roundabout defence of Jesus and explanation as to why we don’t need a striker.

First of all, it’s way too early in the season to judge. Secondly if Pep and Klopp both decide that their very successful teams still need a striker…I’m going to assume they know what they doing.

 

[Trilly]

I would hate to be your girlfriend for SO MANY REASONS. But one of the biggest would have to be your incessant pining over your exes and equally consistently moaning “why can’t you just finish!” every night.

Dunno how @Lady_Gooner puts up with you tbh.

**** you and leave me alone!

 

[El Duderino]

Wide player is the easy option, with Jesus being good enough as your main goalscorer for a top four push.

If you want to win the league though we’re going to need a serious goal scorer that can play with Jesus. We don’t have the facilities to share the goals like City did last season.

Think the wide player with more of an eye for a goal, but that can still play Artetaball is key for a title push.

Having said that, yellow box is still the hardest cog in the team to replace without having to rethink a few things tactically.

 

[El Duderino]

This is maybe the 10th time I’ve seen this mentioned as a kind of roundabout defence of Jesus and explanation as to why we don’t need a striker.

First of all, it’s way too early in the season to judge. Secondly if Pep and Klopp both decide that their very successful teams still need a striker…I’m going to assume they know what they doing.

I'll add that I think City also have more realible "second string" goal scorers, so to speak.

Foden, KdB, Mahrez, Jesus were all expected to get a fair amount of goals. Gundo was surely an unexpected surprise though.

edit: Maybe add grealish here.

Apart from Xhaka being our version of that suprise, Ode/Jesus/Saka/Martin is not at that same level yet.

Again, as you've said, early season and they could still pull it off, which would be great.

But we're top of the league and could challange for the title, if there was ever a time to go all out in a january window it's this one.

 

[db10_therza]

I think Toney-like player would be a good fit for the squad.

It's more about evolution, than revolution.

Not like if we signed him or someone of that skillset that Jesus wouldn't start at 9 at a bunch of games. It's all about taking the squad up a level and having alternatives and maximize the number of players who can pick up the slack when our main guys are doing well in one aspect or another.

We'll see how far Arteta trusts his squad as the fitness redline post WC + fixture congestion nears. Think the lack of a more convencional 9 as far as transfer links goes, tells me he trusts eddie and wants another wide goal scorer.

I agree on the premise but not the timing. Just feel like messing with the system in January isn’t the right call and one better left for the summer. In January I want “like for like” depth

 

[Deleted member 102404]

Partey and Jesus are the obvious ones we have no real replacement for in the context of a title charge. And even with Saka/Nelli there is a big big step down in terms of quality. You expect a step down of course, but not one as big as we have.

There are probably only 3 positions in the first team where a back up makes little difference.

Gabriel - White moves to CB, Tomi comes in at RB
White - Tomi comes in at RB
Zinchenko - Tierney comes in at LB

Other than that - all our back ups are going to weaken the first team (I don't think that is unusual).

Who knows which of the other 8 places in the first team are going to get injured - if at all.
I'd also say that our back ups are fine - I know a lot disagree with that, but I am not keen on writing off back up players after 14 games and little game time. They need time to develop and need more chances before we start splashing cash and replacing them with players that may or may not work out.