Arsène Wenger: Same Old Class

[Doom]

Spot on!! We've all rights to be optimistic. But that Arsenal Boom-Bust Cycle that's been a fixture of every rival fan forum for the better part of the past decade haunts me with the possibility of it all unravelling at a moments notice.

It's loathsome but keeps me aware to enjoy the pleasures where we can.

Also, city haven' stolen a march on anyone after their first 5 wins & we've yet to reach the peak of our playing abilities!

It feels good to be optimistic again

I'm super optimistic about season and have been since I read an article at the start of the summer that presented a compelling case that we were quite unlucky not to win the league last year.

Basically we did everything right last season except convert our chances into goals scored. Each chance not converted were a few more points dropped and that became the yawning gap to Leicester.

I was confident that Wenger had the same stats (and more besides) and would do something to the attack line this summer.

I think that if we win the league this time (having been tipped for relegation once again by the pundits) the journalists' narrative will be:

There were signs that something had been happening at Arsenal for a while.

• They had started to buy top quality players again, Özil, Alexis, Xhaka, Mustafi.
• Didn't sell their best young stars Bellerìn and Iwobi.
• Their two FA cups and a second place deserved more respect,
• Perhaps most revealingly, in the league Arsenal's performances had been deceptively bad. In the calendar years 2013 and 2015 they had achieved the most points. But 2014 was a write off costing them two league titles.

All the ingredients for success were there, Arsenal just needed a squad deep enough to get them through any injury crisis and the triple slog of Prem, CL and FA Cup. In the summer of 2016 Wenger bought big, he was going for.

 

[carlito'sway]

Re The Fickleness of Fans
Many football fans suffer from a bad case of the Dunning Kruger effect, to wit

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which low-ability individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability as much higher than it really is.

Dunning and Kruger attributed this bias to a metacognitive inability of those of low ability to recognise their ineptitude and evaluate their ability accurately.​

Re Reversals
You could argue that injury-wise we are suffering quite badly and still we are playing quite well.

We have not / barely used:
Ospina
Gibbs
Mertesacker
Gabriel
Debuchy
Ramsey
Elneny
Pèrez
Giroud
Welbeck

That looks like a top 4-ish team to me right there

Dunning & Kruger could not find a better crowd to validate their theories than the Arsenal fan base.

 

[Makingtrax]

I'm super optimistic about season and have been since I read an article at the start of the summer that presented a compelling case that we were quite unlucky not to win the league last year.

Basically we did everything right last season except convert our chances into goals scored. Each chance not converted were a few more points dropped and that became the yawning gap to Leicester.

I was confident that Wenger had the same stats (and more besides) and would do something to the attack line this summer.

I think that if we win the league this time (having been tipped for relegation once again by the pundits) the journalists' narrative will be:

There were signs that something had been happening at Arsenal for a while.

• They had started to buy top quality players again, Özil, Alexis, Xhaka, Mustafi.
• Didn't sell their best young stars Bellerìn and Iwobi.
• Their two FA cups and a second place deserved more respect,
• Perhaps most revealingly, in the league Arsenal's performances had been deceptively bad. In the calendar years 2013 and 2015 they had achieved the most points. But 2014 was a write off costing them two league titles.

All the ingredients for success were there, Arsenal just needed a squad deep enough to get them through any injury crisis and the triple slog of Prem, CL and FA Cup. In the summer of 2016 Wenger bought big, he was going for.

Spot on analysis. Really can't see how the logic of that escapes people.

It's easy to forget how difficult the EPL is. Man C are playing superb football but haven't won for three matches.

Probability theory is a useful tool for looking at football as the element of chance is quite high. I read an article analysing the game against Swansea last year where we hit the woodwork 3 times which said that the match could have been played 10 times and we would have won 9 of them. But like the dice roll the 1 loss came up. Of course frustration immediately jumps on Wenger's back.

 

[fabo]

Statistically we were the best team in the league last season according to most analysts. The dry spell Giroud and Sanchez went through in front of goal really cost us at a crucial time. Now with Theo back in form, Perez also there to chip in with goals and two signings down the spine that we badly needed I reckon we're in a good position to put in a strong challenge.

Whether we're good enough to beat City who have looked imperious at times under Pep is the question. I'm quite confident we'll beat the rest.

Those analysts should be shot tbf.

In reality, we ceased to be relevant in the league in Feb/March and ended with a paltry 71 pts, 10 behind Leicester.

Good response to the shambolic Liverpool/Leicester matches so things are looking good right now. Need Özil/Sanchez/Koscielny to play 90% of the games to be up there, and get Ramsey back in the side.

Don't really see Perez doing a whole lot and I cannot be the only one who is expecting Theo to either go cold or get injured very soon. He's looking sharp though, has to be said.

 

[Giroud]

Those analysts should be shot tbf.

Metrics such as expected goals (or a measure of the quality of chances you create) are quite strongly correlated with future points. Analytics is an underused and underrated component of modern day football. It has revolutionised many sports and it's only just starting to come into our sport recently. It's not the be all and end all but it can help enhance traditional methods. Just look at the success they've had at clubs like Midtjylland.

In reality a 38 game Premier League season is a small sample size so the cream will not always rise to the top. Over 38 games Leicester deserved it but I think they got a bit lucky with pretty much their whole starting 11 peaking at the same time. How many players are going to back up their performances last season? Kante who's now gone and maybe Mahrez? I think we were slightly unfortunate to only hit 71 points with the quality of our chances but the data shows that we have a really solid base to build a title challenge especially with the additions we made in the summer.

 

[fabo]

What the hell is expected goals....... Most stats are bulshit imo but Arsenal fans get alot of solace from them and use them to defend underperforming stars (like Özil at times) and Wenger.

Leicester had a freak year but they delivered when it mattered and regardless of what happens this year. they won the title. Which is more than we've done since 2004 with far greater resources.

 

[Jury]

All analysts should be smashed onto meat hooks and left to die slowly in a freezer.

 

[Giroud]

There's a difference between rubbish stats and something like expected goals which is a measure of the quality of chances you create made by taking shot locations and how they are assisted. That has a strong correlation with points accumulated in future games unlike your typical SSN stats.

But I can see that you lads have no interest in learning anything about a new way of analysing games alongside more traditional methods.

 

[Doom]

Metrics such as expected goals (or a measure of the quality of chances you create) are quite strongly correlated with future points. Analytics is an underused and underrated component of modern day football. It has revolutionised many sports and it's only just starting to come into our sport recently. It's not the be all and end all but it can help enhance traditional methods. Just look at the success they've had at clubs like Midtjylland.

In reality a 38 game Premier League season is a small sample size so the cream will not always rise to the top. Over 38 games Leicester deserved it but I think they got a bit lucky with pretty much their whole starting 11 peaking at the same time. How many players are going to back up their performances last season? Kante who's now gone and maybe Mahrez? I think we were slightly unfortunate to only hit 71 points with the quality of our chances but the data shows that we have a really solid base to build a title challenge especially with the additions we made in the summer.

What did Midtjylland do (besides mash the keyboard when they had to come up with a name)?

 

[Giroud]

What did Midtjylland do (besides mash the keyboard when they had to come up with a name)?

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.the...ord-matthew-benham?client=ms-android-motorola

 

[Makingtrax]

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.the...ord-matthew-benham?client=ms-android-motorola

Very interesting article. As the money in football grows, so people are looking to cleverer and cleverer methods to find winning ways.

 

[carlito'sway]

What the hell is expected goals....... Most stats are bulshit imo but Arsenal fans get alot of solace from them and use them to defend underperforming stars (like Özil at times) and Wenger.

Leicester had a freak year but they delivered when it mattered and regardless of what happens this year. they won the title. Which is more than we've done since 2004 with far greater resources.

When I read that it sounds exactly the same as "Global warming is a hoax".....

 

[Jury]

Well that's some leap tbf.

 

[Trilly]

I'm super optimistic about season and have been since I read an article at the start of the summer that presented a compelling case that we were quite unlucky not to win the league last year.

Basically we did everything right last season except convert our chances into goals scored. Each chance not converted were a few more points dropped and that became the yawning gap to Leicester.

I was confident that Wenger had the same stats (and more besides) and would do something to the attack line this summer.

I think that if we win the league this time (having been tipped for relegation once again by the pundits) the journalists' narrative will be:

There were signs that something had been happening at Arsenal for a while.

• They had started to buy top quality players again, Özil, Alexis, Xhaka, Mustafi.
• Didn't sell their best young stars Bellerìn and Iwobi.
• Their two FA cups and a second place deserved more respect,
• Perhaps most revealingly, in the league Arsenal's performances had been deceptively bad. In the calendar years 2013 and 2015 they had achieved the most points. But 2014 was a write off costing them two league titles.

All the ingredients for success were there, Arsenal just needed a squad deep enough to get them through any injury crisis and the triple slog of Prem, CL and FA Cup. In the summer of 2016 Wenger bought big, he was going for.

Link to that article please. I thought it was Sp**s who were statistically the best team in the league up until the last few weeks.

I wouldn't call us missing out on the title bad luck though, that was well and truly our fault.

 

[Doom]

Link to that article please. I thought it was Sp**s who were statistically the best team in the league up until the last few weeks.

I wouldn't call us missing out on the title bad luck though, that was well and truly our fault.

I had a quick Google and couldn't find the exact article but this one from April has the relevant numbers for the attack.

We created chances like Barca and converted like Villa.

http://news.arseblog.com/2016/04/arsenal-goals-from-distance-by-the-numbers/

Edit
This might be the one:
http://arsereview.blogspot.ie/2016/04/why-i-still-support-Arsène-wenger-as.html?m=1

 

[Makingtrax]

When I read that it sounds exactly the same as "Global warming is a hoax".....

It's the same as Galileo gathering data to prove the the earth goes round the sun. They said that was bullshit and they wanted to burn him.

Human beings will argue blacks white if it suits them.

 

[Doom]

It's the same as Galileo gathering data to prove the the earth goes round the sun. They said that was bullshit and they wanted to burn him.

Human beings will argue blacks white if it suits them.

Thomas Khun's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions book is excellent on that theme of challenges to established ways of thinking. He coined the term paradigm shift in it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions

I think we're seeing it a paradigm shift in reality with regards Wenger.

Emirate's years paradigm - Wenger's a cretin, look at him playing kids and selling all his best players and buying no one and being smug with fourth in the league. "Arsenal are a million miles from winning a trophey" - Michael Owen in 2013.

New data comes in: Wenger buys Özil Alexis etc

Old paradigm reaction: yeah but they were opportunistic buys to get season tickets sold. He should buy Messi to prove he's serious.

New data: Wins FA Cups.

Old paradigm reaction: cups are a joke.

New data: finishes second.

Old paradigm: yeah but Leicester won the league so Wenger's clown.

New data: plays Alexis and Theo

Old paradigm: he's lost it totally lost it.

New data: Arsenal are joint top.

New paradigm: There's only one Arsène Wenger!

 

[Makingtrax]

Thomas Khun's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions book is excellent on that theme of challenges to established ways of thinking. He coined the term paradigm shift in it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Structure_of_Scientific_Revolutions

I think we're seeing it a paradigm shift in reality with regards Wenger.

Emirate's years paradigm - Wenger's a cretin, look at him playing kids and selling all his best players and buying no one and being smug with fourth in the league. "Arsenal are a million miles from winning a trophey" - Michael Owen in 2013.

New data comes in: Wenger buys Özil Alexis etc

Old paradigm reaction: yeah but they were opportunistic buys to get season tickets sold. He should buy Messi to prove he's serious.

New data: Wins FA Cups.

Old paradigm reaction: cups are a joke.

New data: finishes second.

Old paradigm: yeah but Leicester won the league so Wenger's clown.

New data: plays Alexis and Theo

Old paradigm: he's lost it totally lost it.

New data: Arsenal are joint top.

New paradigm: There's only one Arsène Wenger!

Brilliant. Except for many frustrated fans the last line will only happen when he wins the league.

Until then they'll continue with their aggressive bullsh*t clusterf*** collapsing failures, and look for ways to belittle the club.

 

[Jury]

It's the same as Galileo gathering data to prove the the earth goes round the sun. They said that was bullshit and they wanted to burn him.

Human beings will argue blacks white if it suits them.

No white text? Disappointed you didn't throw a Hitler analogy in there for good measure

 

[Jury]

Brilliant. Except for many frustrated fans the last line will only happen when he wins the league.

Until then they'll continue with their aggressive bullsh*t clusterf*** collapsing failures, and look for ways to belittle the club.

Strawman. This is not being done. It's about Wenger.