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Arsenal Supporters Trust Event with David Ornstein

scytheavatar

Established Member
The gaslighting of Arsenal fans with respect to cash reserves is so tedious. I really like Ornstein but the pre-COVID reality was that Arsenal had significant cash reserves even accounting for the 35m debt service requirement. Anyway, it's all water under the bridge now.


Our cash reserve went from £231m to £167m...... we do have significant cash reserve but it will be gone in a picosecond if we don't spend it wisely.

Irrelevant anyway because even if we have money it is likely clubs will not be in a mood to sell nor players in a mood to move in a depressed market.
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
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Country: Scotland
Arsenal match day income - £96m
Chelsea match day income - £67m
Liverpool match day income - £84m
Man Utd match day income - £111m
Tottenham match day income - £82m

All of those clubs will struggle without that much revenue. It’s almost 20% (slightly more for us) of total revenue for each club. It’s the same story for the majority of the bigger clubs in Europe.
it would be good if that were accurate. But it's not.

Match day revenue represents 24% of our income. For Chelsea its 14%, Liverpool 15%, City 10%, United 17% and Sp**s 17%. We clearly rely on it more than other clubs to the tune of 8% more than the next closest club. And 14% more than the lowest top 6 team. We also dont have owners willing to prop up the club and have been out of the CL for 2 seasons in a row and looking increasingly likely to have a 3rd one out. We were told no CL football will seriously hamper us. Europa League income with a Champions League wage bill.

Put all that together and youve w potential **** storm. And God knows what happens if we have no European football at all. A distinct possibility given our current league position.
 

field442

Hates Journalists Named James
Trusted ⭐
it would be good if that were accurate. But it's not.

Match day revenue represents 24% of our income. For Chelsea its 14%, Liverpool 15%, City 10%, United 17% and Sp**s 17%. We clearly rely on it more than other clubs to the tune of 8% more than the next closest club. And 14% more than the lowest top 6 team. We also dont have owners willing to prop up the club and have been out of the CL for 2 seasons in a row and looking increasingly likely to have a 3rd one out. We were told no CL football will seriously hamper us. Europa League income with a Champions League wage bill.

Put all that together and youve w potential **** storm. And God knows what happens if we have no European football at all. A distinct possibility given our current league position.

If it was a whole season behind closed doors we’d lose £12m/£14m more than Liverpool and Sp**s who are probably the two clubs closest to us in terms of financial status. That’s what, one weeks wages for the squad? The broader point is all the top 6 are going to lose a ****load in match day revenue and probably all apart from City will react accordingly. Let’s not pretend Sp**s and Liverpool would be able to get by without that £80m revenue. They’d be just as ****ed as us. There’s already stories doing the rounds for most of the top 6 stating how they’re going to have to adjust in the transfer market.

In terms of European football they’ll all probably lose out on that revenue stream as well. I can’t imagine people will be freely travelling around Europe for most of this year.
 

Country: Iceland
it would be good if that were accurate. But it's not.

Match day revenue represents 24% of our income. For Chelsea its 14%, Liverpool 15%, City 10%, United 17% and Sp**s 17%. We clearly rely on it more than other clubs to the tune of 8% more than the next closest club. And 14% more than the lowest top 6 team. We also dont have owners willing to prop up the club and have been out of the CL for 2 seasons in a row and looking increasingly likely to have a 3rd one out. We were told no CL football will seriously hamper us. Europa League income with a Champions League wage bill.

Put all that together and youve w potential **** storm. And God knows what happens if we have no European football at all. A distinct possibility given our current league position.

Is it worrying that we have bigger field than most these teams yet our match day income is close to 25% of our over all income?

Where are they getting money that we aren't getting?
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
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Country: Scotland
If it was a whole season behind closed doors we’d lose £12m/£14m more than Liverpool and Sp**s who are probably the two clubs closest to us in terms of financial status. That’s what, one weeks wages for the squad? The broader point is all the top 6 are going to lose a ****load in match day revenue and probably all apart from City will react accordingly. Let’s not pretend Sp**s and Liverpool would be able to get by without that £80m revenue. They’d be just as ****ed as us. There’s already stories doing the rounds for most of the top 6 stating how they’re going to have to adjust in the transfer market.

In terms of European football they’ll all probably lose out on that revenue stream as well. I can’t imagine people will be freely travelling around Europe for most of this year.
Not sure you're grasping this. 12m is the financial difference but proportionately matchday income makes up a larger part of our overall income than Liverpool. We stand to potentially lose a quarter of all our revenue. Liverpool stand to lose just over a 1/6th of their revenue. City potentially losing only a 10th. That's a mammoth difference that we cannot magic out of thin air.

All clubs will be impacted and struggle one way or another but its clear we have the most to lose if fans cannot come through the gate.
 

field442

Hates Journalists Named James
Trusted ⭐
Not sure you're grasping this. 12m is the financial difference but proportionately matchday income makes up a larger part of our overall income than Liverpool. We stand to potentially lose a quarter of all our revenue. Liverpool stand to lose just over a 1/6th of their revenue. City potentially losing only a 10th. That's a mammoth difference that we cannot magic out of thin air.

All clubs will be impacted and struggle one way or another but its clear we have the most to lose if fans cannot come through the gate.

It’s pointless arguing over this anyway. Clubs revenue changes year on year. We’ve added £40m in commercial revenue this season so the match day revenue % to total turnover will be lower. Teams like Liverpool and Sp**s will have a decent drop in broadcasting revenue for not making the Champions League final, so their % will go up a bit. You’re probably arguing over 3-4% difference. Hardly mammoth (in relation to Liverpool and Sp**s). The main point, as I said previously, is the majority of the top 6 will be losing a ****load.
 
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Mo Britain

Doom Monger
Brace yourselves. However hard Arteta tries we may fall out of Europe altogether once the Newcastle money kicks in.

Why do we depend so much on matchday revenue? Well there is one potential positive answer, it's because we make so much of it. But there's also a negative... because Gazidis, briefly the darling of the forum, was so useless at his job and our current "sporting franchise expert" owners are so uninterested in theirs.

I see hard times ahead.
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
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Country: Scotland
It’s pointless arguing over this anyway. Clubs revenue changes year on year. We’ve added £40m in commercial revenue this season so the match day revenue % to total turnover will be lower. Teams like Liverpool and Sp**s will have a decent drop in broadcasting revenue for not making the Champions League final, so their % will go up a bit. You’re probably arguing over 3-4% difference. Hardly mammoth (in relation to Liverpool and Sp**s). The main point, as I said previously, is the majority of the top 6 will be losing a ****load.
Correct revenue isnt static. Liverpool and Sp**s will have a hit from failing to progress beyond the last 16 as will we due to failure to make it beyond the last 32. Same as Liverpool will have more commercial money due to their new partnership with Nike.

I don't see it as pointless discussion. As Arsenal fans we have to be aware of where we are exposed and why there are concerns. Short term we face the biggest percentage loss of revenue. We face the prospect of no European money also. If we were United fans I'd be discussing where they are exposed.
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
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Country: Scotland
@hydrofluoric acid its hard to tell for certain. Most reports I have read have the wage bill dropping as weve lost some high earners in Ramsey, Koscielny and Welbeck. I'd be cautious though as they also include Mkhitaryan who is only on loan and may be back. And they dont always account for our new signings.
 

scytheavatar

Established Member
@hydrofluoric acid its hard to tell for certain. Most reports I have read have the wage bill dropping as weve lost some high earners in Ramsey, Koscielny and Welbeck. I'd be cautious though as they also include Mkhitaryan who is only on loan and may be back. And they dont always account for our new signings.

Don't forget the sacking of Emery too, not only did we have to pay for him we had to pay for his whole staff.
 

GunnerShy

Well-Known Member
I think people are a little too pessimistic in here. Every club will be impacted.

We are probably better placed than most clubs to deal with it.

1 - in truth we probably weren't looking at a big transfer window this season. We did a lot of cash the last couple of summers.
2 - We've got a few players we could look to trade that may have some currency at clubs who have players we'd be interested in. Namely Auba & Laca.
3 - We've discovered great young players in Saka (must re-sign), Gabi. Other signings Pepe, Tierney and Saliba will improve and improve us next season.
4 - We've recently re-negotiated our kit deal and have longer term shirt name and stadium deals that will expire after the economic fall out of this.
5 - We've got a number of bright prospects coming through the academy at the moment.
6 - There's some absolute mediocrity that will come off our wage bill over the next 18 months. With luck we will get rid of Mkhi, Elneny earlier.
7 - Low debt.
8 - Good young coach who will work with the squad particularly the younger players to mould them to an attractive possession based football. He's not a checkbook manager. If he was, he wouldn't have come.

As others have said all clubs will be impacted.
Of the big 6 - where our interest is.

ManU - Large debt, large commercial revenue. Mediocre manager. This will put the breaks on their commercial growth. What about Pogba? They won't be getting £100m for him anymore. They'll weather the storm better than others but they are a business like us. Glazer's don't tip in, they take out.

ManCity- their revenue is fake. They'll look to cook their books but if they're banned from UCL they'll have trouble erasing that short fall on the balance sheet.

Liverpool - same boat as us but better ran.

Chelsea - Who knows. A bit of a basket case financially. Look likely to play CL again so that will help. Will Roman give them another loan? During the GFC he lost ~£3b off his net worth. This is many times larger. His losses may well be too. In which case he may not have the appetite to dive back in significantly. On a positive they've got good young kids coming through.

Sp**s - Will miss UCL and could miss Europe. No stadium naming deal yet. Large stadium debt. The most expensive season tickets in the EPL. Their revenues will come under significant stress. No pay cut deal with the players and with the lowest wage bill on the top 6 limited scope to address. Talk of Harry Kane considering his options. There could hardly be a worse time to sell him over the next couple of years.

In summary, all clubs will have challenges. We have increased revenue from our shirts and other deals that will help offset some reductions. Our deals are long term which will give some certainty. Debt is low and we will be better placed than most to weather a storm.
 

Maybe

You're wrong, no?
I think people are a little too pessimistic in here. Every club will be impacted.

We are probably better placed than most clubs to deal with it.

1 - in truth we probably weren't looking at a big transfer window this season. We did a lot of cash the last couple of summers.
2 - We've got a few players we could look to trade that may have some currency at clubs who have players we'd be interested in. Namely Auba & Laca.
3 - We've discovered great young players in Saka (must re-sign), Gabi. Other signings Pepe, Tierney and Saliba will improve and improve us next season.
4 - We've recently re-negotiated our kit deal and have longer term shirt name and stadium deals that will expire after the economic fall out of this.
5 - We've got a number of bright prospects coming through the academy at the moment.
6 - There's some absolute mediocrity that will come off our wage bill over the next 18 months. With luck we will get rid of Mkhi, Elneny earlier.
7 - Low debt.
8 - Good young coach who will work with the squad particularly the younger players to mould them to an attractive possession based football. He's not a checkbook manager. If he was, he wouldn't have come.

As others have said all clubs will be impacted.
Of the big 6 - where our interest is.

ManU - Large debt, large commercial revenue. Mediocre manager. This will put the breaks on their commercial growth. What about Pogba? They won't be getting £100m for him anymore. They'll weather the storm better than others but they are a business like us. Glazer's don't tip in, they take out.

ManCity- their revenue is fake. They'll look to cook their books but if they're banned from UCL they'll have trouble erasing that short fall on the balance sheet.

Liverpool - same boat as us but better ran.

Chelsea - Who knows. A bit of a basket case financially. Look likely to play CL again so that will help. Will Roman give them another loan? During the GFC he lost ~£3b off his net worth. This is many times larger. His losses may well be too. In which case he may not have the appetite to dive back in significantly. On a positive they've got good young kids coming through.

Sp**s - Will miss UCL and could miss Europe. No stadium naming deal yet. Large stadium debt. The most expensive season tickets in the EPL. Their revenues will come under significant stress. No pay cut deal with the players and with the lowest wage bill on the top 6 limited scope to address. Talk of Harry Kane considering his options. There could hardly be a worse time to sell him over the next couple of years.

In summary, all clubs will have challenges. We have increased revenue from our shirts and other deals that will help offset some reductions. Our deals are long term which will give some certainty. Debt is low and we will be better placed than most to weather a storm.
Some valid points here.

I would focus on young players here as it should be our top priority to produce some big players (since we can't buy them), and our current sponsor deals will allow us to function until we do it. We have 2-3 years to do it and if we are successful, we could have a solid negotiation position when we work on the new deals.
We also have enough time to clear the squad once the contracts for underperforming players are over, and we will need that money to sign long term contracts with our best prospects.

This is not the time to build a team for winning things, it's time to deal with some of our internal problems. We were in trouble even before the virus
 

Mo Britain

Doom Monger
There is no point in wishing Man City and Chelsea's owners are simply going to disappear from the scene. Won't happen. So there's two teams we can't compete with financially.

Manu are being bled by the Glazers but their revenue is such that we still can't compete with them financially.

Liverpool are way ahead of us in playing resources and somehow seem to have lots more money to spend than us. So we can't compete with them either.

Sp uds will get weaker as their top players leave or age and they cannot replace them with equivalents, but that's as good as it gets.

Newcastle will whizz past us in 2 seasons maximum. We're fighting Leicester and Everton for 6th when everything settles down but we could end up 8th or 9th if things go further awry.
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
Trusted ⭐

Country: Scotland
@GunnerShy I'd agree with most of that. United are at risk of their next deals being lower than current deals as business cuts back on large commitments. same applies for other teams. (Also depressed transfer fees (which has been long overdue)

UK broadcast rights fell when the last set or TV rights were up for grabs and given whats happening I'd expect a fall again. Although international rights went up previously to offset the domestic loss it's hard to see international markets handing out more again in light of their own financial situation. You only need to look at Disney and how its suffering presently.

So long term other teams will feel the heat meanwhile fans return and we become net beneficiaries whilst other clubs have revenue streams pulled from them.

Choppy waters ahead.
 

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