• ! ! ! IMPORTANT MESSAGE ! ! !

    Discussions about police investigations

    In light of recent developments about a player from Premier League being arrested and until there is an official announcement, ALL users should refrain from discussing or speculating about situations around personal off-pitch matters related to any Arsenal player. This is to protect you and the forum.

    Users who disregard this reminder will be issued warnings and their posts will get deleted from public.

Champions League 2019/20

serenitynow

Ex-fransgooner

Player:Jesus

it's always Barca-Chelsea I swear, although City-Atleti would be fascinating
Would be interesting to know how these exact probabilities are figured out. No matter what way I'm looking at it, it doesn't seem to make sense in terms of the percentages.
For example, looking at Barca, why are they more likely to draw Chelsea over Tottenham? Or more than any of the other 3 teams for that matter? Surely that since they can only draw 5 teams means that they have a 20% chance of drawing each one of those 5 teams equally?
 

Joestlaachmkr

Active Member
My wild guess is that either Liverpool, City, Juventus or Paris are gonna CL, i dont believe in Madrid or Barca this season i would say Atletico has a bigger chance of reaching the final than what either Barca or Real have, i dont think neither Bayern or Dortmund will last long in CL this season. PSG probably has a bigger chance of winning the CL this season than what they have ever had before. The biggest darkhorses i would say are Leipzig and Chelsea.
 

krengon

One Arsène Wenger
Trusted ⭐
Would be interesting to know how these exact probabilities are figured out. No matter what way I'm looking at it, it doesn't seem to make sense in terms of the percentages.
For example, looking at Barca, why are they more likely to draw Chelsea over Tottenham? Or more than any of the other 3 teams for that matter? Surely that since they can only draw 5 teams means that they have a 20% chance of drawing each one of those 5 teams equally?

Just looking at it quickly I'd say it's because of the difference in numbers of teams they could face.. Teams like PSG, Bayern, Atlanta, Napoli, Lyon, Leipzig can potentially face 6 of the teams, while the others can potentially face 5 of them..

From your example Tottenham can't be paired with Bayern and the latter have 6 potential opponents. Chelsea can't be paired with Valencia and they have 5 potential opponents. That's probably what's causing the differrence in probability.
 
  • Like
Reactions: A_G

A_G

Rice Rice Baby 🎼🎵
A-M CL Draft Campeón 🏆
Tuchel against his old team should be a great game to watch
 

Latest posts+

Top Bottom