OFFICIAL Joe Willock (Out)

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bonzka

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if we are being told Tammy is around $40m, then why should Willock go for any less. Willock had the best goal scoring record of any player at the back end of last season - and can anyone be confident that Tammy has a higher ceiling?.

Willock had a goal scoring run in a team that played to his strengths (as we find out). That's likely all it was.

He had a 'good tournament'. Only stupid cash rich clubs spend serious cash on players without any history of consistency. Granted, if he carries on then it becomes consistent.

Keep and loan. Gamble that his value increases.
 

American_Gooner

Not actually American. Unless Di Marzio says so.
Moderator
As revealed by Telegraph Sport last week, the Magpies are still waiting for an answer on their bid for Willock. Interestingly, a permanent move, rather than just a loan, is thought to be back on the table as the Gunners look to raise funds for their own recruitment needs.

Willock has continued to operate on the fringes of the Arsenal side in pre-season but has not agitated for a move at this stage.

Newcastle have not put a deadline on talks, but there will come a point when they need a definitive answer from both Gunners manager Mikel Arteta and the player.

As things stand, Bruce is willing to give Willock more time to make that decision but he does want new signings made before the start of the season.
 

Troopz

Established Member
Getting Emi Martinez vibes from this one.

You don’t sell your better players or talents just to raise funds ffs. We should try to sell our trash or our owner needs to invest in the squad. If he can’t do that then bring in a manager that can work with what he has available.
 

yousif_arsenal

King of Twitter Rumours
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i think their first bid will be just below or about 20M. we'll keep asking for 25M mike Ashley need to pay up we selling them a player who was key of their safety last season and scored important goals.
 

Rex Banter

Got Swerved By Gallas
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Getting Emi Martinez vibes from this one.

You don’t sell your better players or talents just to raise funds ffs. We should try to sell our trash or our owner needs to invest in the squad. If he can’t do that then bring in a manager that can work with what he has available.

Strong agree. Straight facts.
 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant
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I thought Willock held fantastic promise when he broke through that preseason. I don't think he's kicked on as expected (partly ofc due to lack of chances) and getting 25m on the back of the Newcastle loan would be good business imo. I'll caveat that with if we move or plan to move to 433 during the year then I'd try for an extension and straight loan.

All in all he's a decent mid that has a goal threat but offers little else (if we look at stats anyway). Even in a Newcastle team that pack it and sit fairly low he's pretty bad defensively. Absolute numbers he's up there in the 75th+ percentile, but in relative numbers like % dribblers tackled, % successful pressures etc he's really bad. When it comes to passing and possession success numbers he's poor and he has a lot of miscontrols and get dispossessed a LOT, which is remarkable given he's in the lowest 7th percentile for touches.

His loan's success is nothing more than a purple patch. Even though he has very good xG for a midfielder he outperformed his xG by a ridiculous amount. For comparison, if Harry Kane, who's probably the most prolific goalscorer in the league (here in the context of most likely to outscore his xG) outscored his xG by the same numbers he'd have 54 goals last season.
 

TromsoGooner

Obsessed With Hairspray
I thought Willock held fantastic promise when he broke through that preseason. I don't think he's kicked on as expected (partly ofc due to lack of chances) and getting 25m on the back of the Newcastle loan would be good business imo. I'll caveat that with if we move or plan to move to 433 during the year then I'd try for an extension and straight loan.

All in all he's a decent mid that has a goal threat but offers little else (if we look at stats anyway). Even in a Newcastle team that pack it and sit fairly low he's pretty bad defensively. Absolute numbers he's up there in the 75th+ percentile, but in relative numbers like % dribblers tackled, % successful pressures etc he's really bad. When it comes to passing and possession success numbers he's poor and he has a lot of miscontrols and get dispossessed a LOT, which is remarkable given he's in the lowest 7th percentile for touches.

His loan's success is nothing more than a purple patch. Even though he has very good xG for a midfielder he outperformed his xG by a ridiculous amount. For comparison, if Harry Kane, who's probably the most prolific goalscorer in the league (here in the context of most likely to outscore his xG) outscored his xG by the same numbers he'd have 54 goals last season.
Agree on the goals. He will always get goals but obviously not at that rate. However he also had great stats in other parts of the game, take ons,distance covered,interceptions,stuff like that. A few posters posted it, couldnt be bothered to find it now
 

Token Yank

Well-Known Member
Just don't get where he fits in here. As a 10? No. As an 8 in a two man midfield? No. Only spot I could see is in a 3 man midfield and think we can do better than Willock. Would cash in now.
 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant
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Agree on the goals. He will always get goals but obviously not at that rate. However he also had great stats in other parts of the game, take ons,distance covered,interceptions,stuff like that. A few posters posted it, couldnt be bothered to find it now
He is in the 97th percentile for take ons, but in the 15th precentile for successful ones. That means that while he attempts a lot of dribbles, he loses the ball A LOT (which I pointed out). That opens us up for counters, which we are quite bad at defending against. He's literally in the lowest 2nd and 3rd percentile for miscontrols and dispossessions.

He has high interception numbers, in the 98th percentile amongst midfielders, but gets dribbled past more than 99% of midfielders. He's bad at pressing (though this is probably a systemic issue for Newcastle tbf).

All in all, he won't give us what we need. I still see potential if we move to 433, which is why I think we should try for a loan if we're really moving to that. Then reassess next summer. But he has no place in an Arsenal side (or any perhaps) that plays 4231
 

TromsoGooner

Obsessed With Hairspray
He is in the 97th percentile for take ons, but in the 15th precentile for successful ones. That means that while he attempts a lot of dribbles, he loses the ball A LOT (which I pointed out). That opens us up for counters, which we are quite bad at defending against. He's literally in the lowest 2nd and 3rd percentile for miscontrols and dispossessions.

He has high interception numbers, in the 98th percentile amongst midfielders, but gets dribbled past more than 99% of midfielders. He's bad at pressing (though this is probably a systemic issue for Newcastle tbf).

All in all, he won't give us what we need. I still see potential if we move to 433, which is why I think we should try for a loan if we're really moving to that. Then reassess next summer. But he has no place in an Arsenal side (or any perhaps) that plays 4231
What annoys me with some peoples take on Willock (not you by the way, you make some very good points and back it up with stats) is that they make it sound like he is a a 27 year old player that won`t improve much whi we have to decide now whether he fits and is good enough. He is 21, he will still become a lot better.
 

Barry

Well-Known Member
I thought Willock held fantastic promise when he broke through that preseason. I don't think he's kicked on as expected (partly ofc due to lack of chances) and getting 25m on the back of the Newcastle loan would be good business imo. I'll caveat that with if we move or plan to move to 433 during the year then I'd try for an extension and straight loan.

All in all he's a decent mid that has a goal threat but offers little else (if we look at stats anyway). Even in a Newcastle team that pack it and sit fairly low he's pretty bad defensively. Absolute numbers he's up there in the 75th+ percentile, but in relative numbers like % dribblers tackled, % successful pressures etc he's really bad. When it comes to passing and possession success numbers he's poor and he has a lot of miscontrols and get dispossessed a LOT, which is remarkable given he's in the lowest 7th percentile for touches.

His loan's success is nothing more than a purple patch. Even though he has very good xG for a midfielder he outperformed his xG by a ridiculous amount. For comparison, if Harry Kane, who's probably the most prolific goalscorer in the league (here in the context of most likely to outscore his xG) outscored his xG by the same numbers he'd have 54 goals last season.

You've put some really great analysis on these two posts and highlighted some of Willock's relative flaws in his possession and especially defensive game. His dribbling and defensive stats in particular are downright weird when you deep dive into them. Amazing in some areas and atrocious in others.

The only thing I would disagree on is his attacking stats which I think you've downplayed a bit. Over the past half a season they are absolutely elite - and not just his actual numbers but his expected as well. Yes, of course he's overperformed, but even factoring that in he was;

98th percentile for non penalty expected goals;
95th for npx goals + assists;
99th for shots on target
81st for Shot Creating Actions
90th for cross volume.

That's from a 21 year old in the hardest league in a new team. I get that we can't accommodate him in the current formation but what if he sustains those numbers? Arsenal will look so dumb for letting him go cheap (or at all). He was performing at a similar level in the Europa League as well.

 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant
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What annoys me with some peoples take on Willock (not you by the way, you make some very good points and back it up with stats) is that they make it sound like he is a a 27 year old player that won`t improve much whi we have to decide now whether he fits and is good enough. He is 21, he will still become a lot better.
I agree and I think this goes both ways tbh. There are those talking about him as he’s a ready made player who merits inclusion in a starting line up and disregard that he’s 21and will have downfalls in form and have aspects that really do need development.
 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant
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You've put some really great analysis on these two posts and highlighted some of Willock's relative flaws in his possession and especially defensive game. His dribbling and defensive stats in particular are downright weird when you deep dive into them. Amazing in some areas and atrocious in others.

The only thing I would disagree on is his attacking stats which I think you've downplayed a bit. Over the past half a season they are absolutely elite - and not just his actual numbers but his expected as well. Yes, of course he's overperformed, but even factoring that in he was;

98th percentile for non penalty expected goals;
95th for npx goals + assists;
99th for shots on target
81st for Shot Creating Actions
90th for cross volume.

That's from a 21 year old in the hardest league in a new team. I get that we can't accommodate him in the current formation but what if he sustains those numbers? Arsenal will look so dumb for letting him go cheap (or at all). He was performing at a similar level in the Europa League as well.

100%. I didn’t necessarily set out to downplay his strengths in attack but the post I wrote is a bit contrarian and provocative in its nature and I guess that’s a side effect.

What you’re pointing out with his xG (foremost) being absolutely elite is what makes me want to keep him and loan him. There are also a couple of traits that only partly reflected in stats but are much more clear through the eye test. His ability to find space as a runner and time his runs is the most standout imo. It’s reflected in his xG (you simply don’t get that high xG as a mid if you’re not good at timing runs into the box) as well as the stat “progressive passes received” in which he’s in the 76th (or so) percentile. Coupled with the fact that the lions share of his touches are far up the pitch it paints a picture of someone who is crucial to his teams ability to fast move the ball up field. Ofc this is all pretty obvious to the eye - I just had to nerd down and give the stats context example out of my passion for data 😂
 
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