www.chroniclelive.co.uk
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This summer, Joe Willock presents Arsenal with a conundrum. It’s certain that his asking price has never been higher — and who knows, perhaps it will never be quite so high again. By the same token, a player of his skill set has real potential value to Arsenal. This is a team desperately lacking in goals from midfield, and that’s a problem Willock appears able to fix.
Until his loan spell with Newcastle, analysis of Willock has tended to focus on what he doesn’t do: he doesn’t hold his position, he doesn’t help keep possession, he is not a strong tackler. His time on Tyneside, however, was a reminder of what he does do: Willock scores goals.
The 21-year-old midfielder finished the 2020-21 Premier League season by scoring in seven consecutive games. It was a run that made him the league’s Player of the Month for May — and one that saw him draw level in the record books for consecutive goals scored for Arsenal and Newcastle with the likes of Thierry Henry, Ian Wright, Emmanuel Adebayor and Alan Shearer.
Goals from midfield is not something Arsenal have found easy to come by — and that’s putting it lightly. In that blistering seven-game hot streak, Willock scored more league goals than the combined efforts of Martin Ødegaard, Dani Ceballos, Emile Smith Rowe, Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka and Mohamed Elneny have produced in the past two seasons during their differing spells at Arsenal.
Willock’s knack of arriving in the right place at the right time is no fluke. It’s a function of his tendency to get forward — he gets more touches in the box per 90 than any of his Arsenal counterparts.
While Ødegaard and Partey shoot with similar frequency, they tend to do so from substantially worse positions, as evidenced by their lower xG per 90.
Willock isn’t taking on pot-shots from range — he’s pulling the trigger from dangerous areas inside the penalty box. He has the instinct and the athleticism to ensure he arrives at the critical moment. Few players manage to take shots from such threatening positions: Willock actually had the best xG per shot of any central midfielder who has played more than 500 minutes in the Premier League in 2020-21.
Of course, scoring in every single game isn’t sustainable. Willock has overperformed his xG by a difference of 4.3 goals. He has definitely been on a hot finishing streak — as, by the way, has Arsenal’s Nicolas Pepe.
Willock has an xG of 0.27 per 90. That suggests that over time we could expect him to score at a more realistic rate of roughly one in four games rather than his current rate of near one every two games. For a midfield player, that would be the basis for a very impressive contribution. In terms of xG and goals per game from central midfield, his performances place him in some elite company, alongside the likes of Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin De Bruyne.
Of course, while he has briefly matched those players for goalscoring potential, his all-around game does not bear comparison. While Willock has clear strengths, he also has apparent weaknesses. He is no great passer, in either volume or quality. Last season, Willock averaged 23.3 passes per 90 at a success rate of 77.1 per cent. By contrast, Arsenal attacking midfielders Ødegaard and Smith Rowe averaged 47.1 and 41 passes per 90, at the substantially higher success rates of 90.7 and 87.9 per cent respectively.
Some of that can be attributed to the fact that the vast majority of his minutes have come playing for Newcastle — a team who almost always allow the opposition to dominate possession. When Willock has received the ball, it’s tended to be as part of a counter-attack, where options are fewer and passes naturally incur more risk.
To get a better overall picture of Willock’s game, we can look at his radar on smarterscout: a site which offers ratings from 0 to 99 for a series of player metrics. These values relate to either how often they perform a stylistic action (such as shooting volume) compared with others playing in their position, or how effective they are at it (such as measuring how well they progress the ball upfield).
Here some of his other qualities come to light: we can see he has a very high volume of carry and dribbles, which offsets some of his deficiencies in ball progression via passing.
He also works very hard off the ball. His defensive intensity score of 94 shows he can be effective when pressing the opposition. He applied pressure to the opponent on the ball 27.7 times per 90 minutes — a figure which places him in the top two per cent for central midfielders in the Premier League. Arsenal do not have a squad blessed with overt physicality. Willock potentially fills a gap.
Willock’s qualities are borne out by the statistics. Yes, there’s a clear element of over-performance to his recent prolific streak, but the underlying numbers show a player who can both press and score.
The question may be one of style and fit. Where does Willock play in a Mikel Arteta team? He does not have the same ability to link play as Ødegaard or Smith Rowe, so that makes No 10 unlikely. His best role is probably as a free runner in midfield three, but Arteta has not deployed that system with any consistency. Willock is good, but is he good enough for Arteta to change Arsenal’s shape to accommodate him?
Perhaps the likelihood is that he would fall into the same role he fulfilled for Arteta through the second half of 2019-20: a substitute. Willock was typically used as a late gamble to try and get a goal, or as a pair of willing legs to help protect a lead. He never felt like part of a coherent plan — he remained a “break glass in case of emergency” option. After a few months as a regular Premier League starter, would Willock be prepared to accept that sort of role again?
Arsenal are a club that have frequently been poor sellers, allowing players’ value to diminish before letting them go cheaply. The decision to sell Emiliano Martinez last summer, after his excellent run of form as Bernd Leno’s stand-in, suggested a change in policy. There is a clear case to cash in on Willock while his stock is high.
However, the difference is that in Martinez’s case, Arsenal still had Leno. They do not have another player like Willock, who offers a comparable threat from midfield. If he is to leave, Arsenal will require a replacement. While they may find someone more stylistically suited to Arteta’s team, adding some of that goal threat is vital.
Arsenal finished this Premier League season scoring just 55 times — less than Leeds, Leicester, West Ham and Tottenham. If Willock leaves, the club will still need to find some extra goals elsewhere.
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probably Arteta gonna play him at RB
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Basically, their suggestion is to sell unless we actually plan on using him, which I agree with. If (by some measure of disappointment on my part) we don't have any actual concrete plans to use him properly if at all, we should absolutely sell. Personally, he would be in my plans 200% but it's Arteta's gig and honestly, I have no idea exactly what it is he wants going by who isn't in our first choice plans
Excellent analysis of Willock here. Suggests he's suited to playing as the RCM in a 4-3-3 but not as a no 10 and not in a double pivot, and questions how beneficial it is to keep him if Arteta isn't planning on playing him in his best position.
Caqueret is a non-starter IMO. He's being fattened up for a way bigger team with more resources than us. Knowing how Lyon operate, they would not sell now unless they've really been hit by the financial issues in Ligue 1 and they absolutely have to. Would take more than what we offered for Aouar last Summer.
All of Willock's games under Arsène was as one of the double pivot.
Also one of our own/homegrown. Unless he's being sold for £40m+, it makes more sense to reward his successful loan spell, and sell Elneny and the rest. If there is any truth Arteta will be backed, then we shouldn't need to sell him to fund other signings.
