Liverpool FC: Mo Salah, Mo Problems

[viktor]

and this is after spent 450m pounds in summer

 

[Uptown_Gooner]

You think Isak = CR7 + Messi + Maradona

And you’re telling me to get a life

I didn't say that, you did, and yes, you very clearly live in your mother's basement and have no life nor basis in logical reasoning or sound thinking. But, this forum is a cesspool of garbage these days and unchecked by moderators. So, you guys keep enjoying your echo chamber of weird popularity contests and lack of critical thought.

 

[viktor]

this fanbase confusing lol

 

[Synical]

he is not Somali, ffs.

Is he not?! That makes it even worse! Wow!

 

[Thrice]

this fanbase confusing lol

Well, Real Madrid basically told them "Your player isn't good enough for us" and their egos can't handle it.

 

[Synical]

So true. Our media is trash

 

[MD3 Gunner]

I didn't say that, you did, and yes, you very clearly live in your mother's basement and have no life nor basis in logical reasoning or sound thinking. But, this forum is a cesspool of garbage these days and unchecked by moderators. So, you guys keep enjoying your echo chamber of weird popularity contests and lack of critical thought.

No need to get personal here fool. Just admit your IQ on football was low no shame in that

 

[viktor]

 

[ArsenalInMyHeart]

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

Modern fanbase really funny.

Win away against westham= slot turnaround
After today result = slot must go

 

[matthewuk12000]

You don't need stats to back up Liverpool's current form, they are struggling, I wanted to wait until after the man city game to give an update and here we are.

Defence
I've stated previously their defence is shot. VVD and Konate are both having bad seasons, VVD knows he is playing badly and will look to deflect the blame as much as possible and you can see that in his persona, its always someone else's fault, however what do the stats say.

Below are Liverpool's defensive stats over the last 5 seasons and how they compared vs others in the league
2020/21 - 42 - 7th best defence
2021/22 - 26 - 2nd best defence
2022/23 - 47 - 9th best defence
2023/24 - 41 - 5th best defence
2024/25 - 41 - 8th best defence
Taking out the their best and worst season they are conceding approx 41 goals per season or 1.07g/p/g

Currently they have conceded 17 goals in 11 games which is 1.54g/p/g extrapolating that across and entire season and they will concede 58.7goals. a team conceding this amount of goals typically finishes between 10th-15th. Liverpool are 8th as we speak but they have only won 1 of their last 6 games. Liverpool are currently 19/20 in the form stats with only wolves below.

If Liverpool manage to revert back to type of 1.07g/p/g, they will still concede 46 goals over the course of this season. The biggest issue is there are zero signs of this happening.

Their defence may improve as Liverpool have some very favourable fixtures coming up. Before the half way point of the season they will be playing teams in the following positions. 4th,5th,11th,15th,16th,18th,19th,20th, but the signs show this is going to be the worst defensive performance by Liverpool in years unless they improve.


Attack
Liverpool have done very well having a Europa league level defence because they score a lot of goals, its what has made them fun to watch, they can concede but have been devastating going forward. This year they are miss firing.

Below are Liverpool's stats over the last 5 seasons are as follows for goals scored.
2020/21 - 89
2021/22 - 85
2022/23 - 94
2023/24 - 86
2024/25 - 86

Since last season Liverpool lost 28 goals from sales and deaths (RIP), also IF salah reverts back to his typical season (which he has and its even worse than his average season) they will lose another 8 goals which means they are short by 36 goals. The 8 goals lost by Salah does not even consider the fact he will lose 6 PL games due to AFCON.

those 36 goals need to be replaced by the following new players. Wirtz, Isak, Ekitike, Kerkez, frimpong, which equates to 0.95 gpg. Currently these players have scored 5 goals in 11 games = 0.45gpg.

What's also interesting is every single player who scored last year is behind their projected totals. for example if Gapko continues his current rate he will score 7 goals (10 last season) Dominic S will score 4 (6 last season)

Stats are great however what went before doesn't predict the future, so how are Liverpool doing this season? they have scored 18 in 11 giving 1.63 g/p/g, extrapolating over the season they are on course to score 62 goals. This is 24 less than a typical season. I claimed Liverpool had lost 36 goals from sales and salah defaulting to his median, so shouldn't they be scoring less? Liverpool are fortunate that Chiesa, Ryan G and Ngumoha have scored 5 goals between them and didn't contribute last season, however even with these additional goals they are massively behind the curve. A good example of how the team is underperforming is that those players who stepped up scored most of their goals early in the season to seal late victories. without those late goals their situation could be even worse.

Why Mo Salah is a spent force (Maybe)

Below are salahs stats for the last 6 years (not including last).

View attachment 40253

Its safe to say his median is 18-20 goals per season.

Last season Salah scored 28 goals. scoring 34% of the teams goals. he was literally carrying Liverpool, however this isnt the norm as seen by the table above.

So how badly is Salah doing this year? after 11 games he has scored 4 goals or 0.363 per game, so lets run some basic math. there are 27 games left of the season and Salah will miss 6 with AFCON leaving 21 games.

21 x 0.363 = 8goals (7.623) + 4 = 12 goals. lets assume he hits his median from the table above
21 x 0.58 = 12 goals +4 = 16 total. lastly lets assume he goes back to the his 2024/25 season rate.
21 x (38/28) 0.73 = 15 goals +4 = 19 goals.

The above assumes he will not be injured or rested so at the current rate he gets 12 goals or at best 19 goals. I think this is the season Salah lost his legs and the 480k a week contract is looking like real bad value for money.


Summary

I think Liverpool will finish somewhere around 4th/5th, they should make CL but they wont be winning the league. Their next 3 games are forest (h), West ham (a), Sunderland (h). They should be aiming for 9 points, but you never know, they could easily walk away with only 4.

Like I said.

Lucky to get away with 4 points... im a soothsayer

 

[viktor]

lmaoooooooooooo i did not realize wirtz goal is own goal hahahahahahaha

 

[viktor]

 

[Synical]

This is why it's best to move in silence. The PL is too competitive to be cocky. Look at Chelsea's downfall last night.

Why argue with rival fans when you can just wait!

 

[SuperGoon]

Nah. Move loud and proud and never apologize for it. The football way.

 

[viktor]

man at this point, everyday is banter for wirtz

 

[Jakarta]

Is he not?! That makes it even worse! Wow!

It’s crazy how racism is becoming acceptable in mainstream discourse. He’s using Somali in a derogatory manner because Somalis have become the perfect target for racists since they are Muslim + Black+ Pro Palestine + Outspoken. Isak is from Eritrea, but because he has that skinny build Somalis are known for and because as a person from Horn of Africa he has the same look as Somalis/Ethiopians, Joey Barton thought “hey, why don’t I get more views and likes by mentioning the ****in Somalis”.

Basically imagine if Isak was white and had a massive hooked nose, and Joey Barton said “****ing jewish impostor.” Imagine the uproar? In today’s right wing rhetoric some groups are untouchable whilst the non-white ethnic groups such as black, asian,latino and God forbid Muslim are free game.

 

[viktor]

 

[Buhry]

VVD has been teaching him the art of Aura defending. Just needs to turn his hips a bit more towards the attacker to perfect the technique

 

[Oxeki]

They need to get rid of Cardi V.

He was carried by Konate last season.