Matteo Guendouzi: Lad of Luscious Locks

[Toby]

I can't take this list seriously, Guendouzi has had a solid debut season but surely the likes of Havertz, Vinicius, Foden and Kean are all worth more than Guendouzi? Havertz and Vinicius especially have at times been the best players for their teams this season

That list is a bit off. Havertz probably tops that list along Sancho. Unreal talent. Tbf, a lot of people say he even looks a level above Mario Gotze during his first BvB stint, who was at that time dubbed the German Messi to come - and actually was astonishing.

Havertz is the highest scoring player born 1999 and after of all five top leagues this season. Youngest player ever to rack up 50 Bundesliga games, aged 18 last season. Overall, he's now played 104 first team games aged just 19. With his 16 league goals, he's the youngest player since 67/68 to score 13 or more in a single BL season. No way are Guendouzi or Zaniolo worth more.

They, although of course great talents, are rated slightly too high. Guendouzi has played a solid season, adjusted nicely to a far higher new league, but also shown quite some areas where he needs to improve big time. Zaniolo had that one CL game in which he scored twice and is now supposed to be the 3rd most valuable U20 player? I don't think so. I haven't seen Vinicius too much and his goal scoring doesn't seem too impressive, but I heard he's actually been very solid. And this was his first season at Real Madrid after coming from Brazil.
They also left out De Ligt because they only used the top 5 leagues and left out the Netherlands.

Keeping in mind that attacking talent usually generates higher interest and thus prices, a more reasonable top three would probably be 1. Sancho 2. Havertz 3. De Ligt. I think the first two will fetch fees above 100m, while De Ligt will probably get Ajax a similar fee to the one they got for De Jong. After those 3 you could put Vinicius, Guendouzi, Zaniolo, Donnarumma, Rice, N'Dicka or Konaté, and Joao Felix in basically random order to complete the Top 10.

 

[yybecause]

Offensive players ars always more valued, but also easier to find, easier to fail, and every few months you have few more to add to the list cause they just keep popping up.

what makes Matteo even more so valuable and special, is the position he plays, uniqueness of the style and just how well that transforms to the modern game.
Pool of talented players playing that position and style is quiet empty and rare, which all works out just well for both his recognition and Arsenal as the lucky club to have him

 

[drippin]

That list is a bit off. Havertz probably tops that list along Sancho. Unreal talent. Tbf, a lot of people say he even looks a level above Mario Gotze during his first BvB stint, who was at that time dubbed the German Messi to come - and actually was astonishing.

Havertz is the highest scoring player born 1999 and after of all five top leagues this season. Youngest player ever to rack up 50 Bundesliga games, aged 18 last season. Overall, he's now played 104 first team games aged just 19. With his 16 league goals, he's the youngest player since 67/68 to score 13 or more in a single BL season. No way are Guendouzi or Zaniolo worth more.

They, although of course great talents, are rated slightly too high. Guendouzi has played a solid season, adjusted nicely to a far higher new league, but also shown quite some areas where he needs to improve big time. Zaniolo had that one CL game in which he scored twice and is now supposed to be the 3rd most valuable U20 player? I don't think so. I haven't seen Vinicius too much and his goal scoring doesn't seem too impressive, but I heard he's actually been very solid. And this was his first season at Real Madrid after coming from Brazil.
They also left out De Ligt because they only used the top 5 leagues and left out the Netherlands.

Keeping in mind that attacking talent usually generates higher interest and thus prices, a more reasonable top three would probably be 1. Sancho 2. Havertz 3. De Ligt. I think the first two will fetch fees above 100m, while De Ligt will probably get Ajax a similar fee to the one they got for De Jong. After those 3 you could put Vinicius, Guendouzi, Zaniolo, Donnarumma, Rice, N'Dicka or Konaté, and Joao Felix in basically random order to complete the Top 10.

Something like that, well said. I'm not sure on what is the basis for the ratings. De Ligt would surely be in top 2-3, captaining Ajax at that age over much more experienced players.

Still it's great to see that CIES rates Guendouzi so high. ~7x price rise is amazing in one year, or actually he cost 8 million euros I think. Even if he doesn't develop like we would want his price will be very good.

Great buy and surprised me this season for sure even if not perfect (which we should not assume). It's not too often that Arsenal finds these kind talents.

 

[Toby]

Offensive players ars always more valued, but also easier to find, easier to fail, and every few months tou have few more to add to the list cause they just keep popping up.

what makes Matteo even more so valuable and special, is the position he plays, uniqueness of the style and just how well that transforms to the modern game.
Pool of talented players playing that position and style is quiet empty and rare, which all works out just well for both his recognition and Arsenal as the lucky club to have him

Agree. But that CIES thing they got the list from is all about reasonably creating a value, still they end up with a dodgy list that seems to kind of leave out exactly the fact that attacking players generate higher fees, and/or what has actually been paid for certain players.

As a comparison: Frenkie De jong - ok, he's one year older - is playing a few levels above Guendouzi and the highest rated U21 player in central midfield, yet the initial fee is ~ 75m € which can rise to ~ 86m €. These CIES guys value Guendouzi at ~ 70m €. No one is going to offer that for him when De Jong just cost Barcelona 75m € - a player who's clearly far better atm. That currently puts Guendouzi into the ~ 50m € bracket for me. Havertz, listed 4th on that list two places behind Matteo, will very likely fetch twice that.

 

[drippin]

Agree. But that CIES thing they got the list from is all about reasonably creating a value, still they end up with a dodgy list that seems to kind of leave out exactly the fact that attacking players generate higher fees, and/or what has actually been paid for certain players.

As a comparison: Frenkie De jong - ok, he's one year older - is playing a few levels above Guendouzi and the highest rated U21 player in central midfield, yet the initial fee is ~ 75m € which can rise to ~ 86m €. These CIES guys value Guendouzi at ~ 70m €. No one is going to offer that for him when De Jong just cost Barcelona 75m € - a player who's clearly far better atm. That currently puts Guendouzi into the ~ 50m € bracket for me. Havertz, listed 4th on that list two places behind Matteo, will very likely fetch twice that.

I think De Jong would have been much more expensive if they had bought him this year. It seems like a mistake to sell him early, but that is a lot of money still of course.

 

[drippin]

Agree. But that CIES thing they got the list from is all about reasonably creating a value, still they end up with a dodgy list that seems to kind of leave out exactly the fact that attacking players generate higher fees, and/or what has actually been paid for certain players.

As a comparison: Frenkie De jong - ok, he's one year older - is playing a few levels above Guendouzi and the highest rated U21 player in central midfield, yet the initial fee is ~ 75m € which can rise to ~ 86m €. These CIES guys value Guendouzi at ~ 70m €. No one is going to offer that for him when De Jong just cost Barcelona 75m € - a player who's clearly far better atm. That currently puts Guendouzi into the ~ 50m € bracket for me. Havertz, listed 4th on that list two places behind Matteo, will very likely fetch twice that.

Guendouzi is born 14.4.1999 compared to De Jong 12.5.1997 so that's basically 2 years.

Guendouzi performs at EPL, there are similar opponents than in UCL, dutch league is another matter. Total of 344 minutes against United, City, Tottenham and Liverpool all in top 8 of UCL this year.

But let's not go into comparison because De Jong's playing has been phenomenal mostly. Guendouzi has been mostly just good. This is just an example for what kind of experience he also already has being 2 years younger. This experience is thanks to Emery trusting him and we almost made top 4 (if not for that blind linesman).

 

[Toby]

Guendouzi is born 14.4.1999 compared to De Jong 12.5.1997 so that's basically 2 years.

Guendouzi performs at EPL, there are similar opponents than in UCL, dutch league is another matter. Total of 344 minutes against United, City, Tottenham and Liverpool all in top 8 of UCL this year.

But let's not go into comparison because De Jong's playing has been phenomenal mostly. Guendouzi has been mostly just good. This is just an example for what kind of experience he also already has being 2 years younger. This experience is thanks to Emery trusting him.

Comparison is a big part of how market value is done, though.

De Jong is two years older, has more top flight games under his belt, has bossed games against sides like Real Madrid and Juventus in the CL this season, he's under contract at Ajax for another three years. Overall probably rated as the best young central midfielder in the game, currently. That costs you ~ 75 rising to 86m. No way is Guendouzi, in his own right a neat talent, but younger, less experienced, less far in his development as of now, and although he has shown great promise much further in the category "raw diamond", going to cost you only 5m less than de Jong - right now. I think a current market value of 70m for Guendouzi is way off. Who knows in two years time, but not right now. Think with his background and as a Epl player at Arsenal, 50m is a fair assumption of what clubs would be willing to pay - which would e.g. already put him outside of Arsenal's price range

 

[drippin]

Comparison is a big part of how market value is done, though.

De Jong is two years older, has more top flight games under his belt, has bossed games against sides like Real Madrid and Juventus in the CL this season, he's under contract at Ajax for another three years. Overall probably rated as the best young central midfielder in the game, currently. That costs you ~ 75 rising to 86m. No way is Guendouzi, in his own right a neat talent, but younger, less experienced, less far in his development as of now, and although he has shown great promise much further in the category "raw diamond", going to cost you only 5m less than de Jong - right now. I think a current market value of 70m for Guendouzi is way off. Who knows in two years time, but not right now. Think with his background and as a Epl player at Arsenal, 50m is a fair assumption of what clubs would be willing to pay - which would e.g. already put him outside of Arsenal's price range

I understand, and value De Jong more than Guendouzi also. Still performing pretty well in EPL in 1st season is a lot more impressive than two seasons in dutch league. Totally different class of opponents and strain. De Jong played 1558 minutes in his first full season in dutch league and got sold for 75 million still. De Jong's this season's UCL performances are better thing than Guendouzi's games of course.

The thing is, that you're comparing De Jong's sale last season to Guendouzi now. He was not sold this year when he has performed astonishingly. His price would be a lot more now. That 75 millions for him was cheap deal in hindsight. De Jong seems ready for top level straight away. So 70 million for Guendouzi as 2 years younger player seems fine to me. Guendouzi has two years to "catch De Jong up", if he can and I think this is part of his value estimation.

 

[PoleInGoal]

I understand, and value De Jong more than Guendouzi also. Still performing pretty well in EPL in 1st season is a lot more impressive than two seasons in dutch league. Totally different class of opponents and strain. De Jong played 1558 minutes in his first full season in dutch league and got sold for 75 million still. De Jong's this season's UCL performances are better thing than Guendouzi's games of course.

The thing is, that you're comparing De Jong's sale last season to Guendouzi now. He was not sold this year when he has performed astonishingly. His price would be a lot more now. That 75 millions for him was cheap deal in hindsight. De Jong seems ready for top level straight away. So 70 million for Guendouzi as 2 years younger player seems fine to me. Guendouzi has two years to "catch De Jong up", if he can and I think this is part of his value estimation.

Fair points really. The question is will Guendouzi match De Jong's exploits in 2 years time? Will he be bossing UCL level teams? Could go either way

 

[Toby]

The thing is, that you're comparing De Jong's sale last season to Guendouzi now.

De Jong's deal was struck this current season. News of it broke this January. So it's very much been done during his/this top season.

De Jong played 1558 minutes in his first full season in dutch league and got sold for 75 million still.

Don't know how De Jong's 17/18 season comes into play with his transfer in January 2019. He's also had a rather good season, even if it of course wasn't as stellar as this one. Also had a very good season before that in Belgium in 16/17.

Also of course the Epl is the tougher league than the Eredivisie, but de Jong has also been far more inluential for that league and his team than Guendouzi has been here. I don't want to underrate Matteo, but overall his performance this season was "neat talent, but rough diamond".

That 75 millions for him was cheap deal.

Seriously? He's the second most expensive central midfielder of all time. He's the third most expensive player U22 behind Mbappe and Dembele.

Meaning re: say U23 central midfielders him and pogba are the most current benchmarks in high value transfers. Both are/were rated the biggest prospects in their position, both had stellar seasons before the transfers, with the Frenchman having had the higher marketability at the time of his transfers which probably goes a way to explain the 15m more.

I'm sorry but Guendouzi doesn't really break that 70/80m benchmark of U23 absolute elite talent on a stellar season for me. Anyone who pays that much for him - currently - is getting ripped off, no matter if he plays in the Epl or in Tadjikistan.
If Guendouzi develops nicely and in two years time has a similar season to de Jong's current one, I'd go and say "ok the fee frame for something like that is 75 to 100m". But not right now.

 

[Toby]

Fair points really. The question is will Guendouzi match De Jong's exploits in 2 years time? Will he be bossing UCL level teams? Could go either way

That's exactly the reasoning. A 22 year old CM who does that is worth 75/86m in January 2019. A 20 year old promising but way less developed CM who could or could not go on to reach the leves of the 22 year old, is not worth the same just 6 months later.

 

[PoleInGoal]

That's exactly the reasoning. A 22 year old CM who does that is worth 75/86m in January 2019. A 20 year old promising but way less developed CM who could or could not go on to reach the leves of the 22 year old, is not worth the same just 6 months later.

At time Guendouzi has looked as calm and composed as De Jong, in terms of the way he's created space and used the ball. He's had several moments where he just looks extremely good. Hopefully in the next two years he develops the consistency like De Jong and most importantly develops a solid defensive sense.

 

[Toby]

At time Guendouzi has looked as calm and composed as De Jong, in terms of the way he's created space and used the ball. He's had several moments where he just looks extremely good. Hopefully in the next two years he develops the consistency like De Jong and most importantly develops a solid defensive sense.

And if he does, using De Jong and pogba as benchmarks for absolute top talent in central midfield, he'll be worth between 70 and 100m. But he's not now, saying that is wearing tinted glasses.

 

[yybecause]

I get your points Toby and your willingness to explain the point is spot on. Unfortunately I cant get into this conversation at the moment as I won't be able to do it at same level. But I do think comparing Guendouzi and De Jong only works in Matteo's favor when it comes to what Matteo's worth is atm, which is something like that list said, ahead of, for example, guy I love, from the club I support in Germany, Havertz (we also share the b'day)

 

[bojed]

A 17 year old skinny Cesc had more upper body strength than this 20 year old luscious giant. Unbelievable.

But I have to admit, he has a good eye for an intricate pass though. Hopefully he'll blossom three-fold in 2020.

 

[TheEconomist]

A 17 year old skinny Cesc had more upper body strength than this 20 year old luscious giant. Unbelievable.

What's that based on ?

 

[drippin]

De Jong's deal was struck this current season. News of it broke this January. So it's very much been done during his/this top season.



Don't know how De Jong's 17/18 season comes into play with his transfer in January 2019. He's also had a rather good season, even if it of course wasn't as stellar as this one. Also had a very good season before that in Belgium in 16/17.

Also of course the Epl is the tougher league than the Eredivisie, but de Jong has also been far more inluential for that league and his team than Guendouzi has been here. I don't want to underrate Matteo, but overall his performance this season was "neat talent, but rough diamond".



Seriously? He's the second most expensive central midfielder of all time. He's the third most expensive player U22 behind Mbappe and Dembele.

Meaning re: say U23 central midfielders him and pogba are the most current benchmarks in high value transfers. Both are/were rated the biggest prospects in their position, both had stellar seasons before the transfers, with the Frenchman having had the higher marketability at the time of his transfers which probably goes a way to explain the 15m more.

I'm sorry but Guendouzi doesn't really break that 70/80m benchmark of U23 absolute elite talent on a stellar season for me. Anyone who pays that much for him - currently - is getting ripped off, no matter if he plays in the Epl or in Tadjikistan.
If Guendouzi develops nicely and in two years time has a similar season to de Jong's current one, I'd go and say "ok the fee frame for something like that is 75 to 100m". But not right now.

Ah it was January, good call. Anyway, after the sale he has performed very well against Real & Juventus which they won in later stages of UCL. Also played well against Tottenham.

So isn't it obvious if this young player playes so well and composed in later stages of the biggest competition of the World against champion candidates, he would cost a lot more? It shows maturity and it is valued highly, similar to Guendouzi playing against top opponents in EPL. I think you cannot argue against that.

Anyway no point in going further into this, I have made my points as to why I see CIES rating totally sensible (could be a bit high but not much, certainly not 20 million to me at this point), and they are professionals estimates. I assume they look at whole statistics, I don't know those facts personally. You can disagree, no problem.

 

[bojed]

What's that based on ?

Don't worry no problem.

 

[A_G]

that's a bit much..

 

[field442]

that's a bit much..

Ridiculous. If you've got a kid on a 5 year contract you don't give them such a huge pay rise after one year. Hopefully it being the Sun means it's bollocks.