Mikel Arteta: Managerial Royalty

[Blood on the Tracks]

I'm backing Arteta fairly strongly but there's no way we're getting top 4. Top 6 is attainable and should be the goal though there's no guarantee we'll make it.

Expecting anything more than that and you're setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Christ, I am 25 years old and never been struck by lighting, really need to start being careful now.

I mean, stupid comparison in all honesty. But the longer you're on this earth the greater your chances of being struck by lightning. Again, simple logic.

 

[AbouCuéllar]

Nobody thinks Emery's first season was bad.

I do.

Results wise really outperformed performance wise. It was a fluke first half of the season results wise of 13/14 levels.

(First half we outperformed out xPts by 8.47 xPts-- xG had us at 29, not 38, after 19 games, and if you were watching our performances in the first half--underwhelming but achieving results--and saw us in the second half of the season where we regressed to the mean results wise--performances remained constant--then you know that 29 pts was about where we deserved to be)

In the end we finished on 70 pts, outperforming our xG by 11 pts, 2nd to only Liverpool (much smaller fraction of their 96 pts at 13.5).

Even in this disastrous season, we are on pace for 58 xPts atm, 1 less than Emery's first. Given our performance trend you can expect us to finish pretty well above Emery's xPts level / underlying performance level in his first season.

In short, Emery's 18/19 = major mirage, and needs context of us highly outperforming actual performances to really understand it. Never did Emery's Arsenal look like a successful or good project if you were paying attention to performances.

Other clubs are not sitting still. Some clubs above us added well and didn’t make as many mistakes with signings as we did. Competition overall increased because the TV revenue / Prize money revenue for PL is well spread meaning lower clubs can make big improvements with their squads.

This is important context. Wolves being a mediocre lower half team when in Emery's first season they had a higher xPTS than us is a decent microcosm of this. The league continues to improve both tactically and talent wise, and it shows with results in Europe, where the gap is continuing to widen between England (read in the Spanish press that after the last European round the English coefficient surpassed the Spanish for the first time in about a decade) and the other leagues (when just 3-4 years ago La Liga was a superior league).

I think basing your manager decision on 'Where did we finish last year?' instead of 'Where are we going and where are we projecting to finish next year?' is incredibly short-sighted.

Again, when you look at what's happening now - we're in a CL position since Christmas, we've scored the 2nd highest # of goals since Christmas behind only a rampaging City, we're doing well in Europe, the team is behind the manager and looks more cohesive off the field than in forever - I don't see how you could rationally think that this doesn't bode very well for next season. And if we'd fired Arteta at Christmas and the new manager had these exact results doing these exact things, we'd be elated. It is absolutely baffling to me how anyone could say 'yeah, the team's doing great and set up well for next season ... but we had a bad stretch months ago which messed up our position in the standings, so fire the manager!'. And then hop right back on the manager carousel and have a new guy wanting a new system and new players again next year for the 4th time in 5 years, and somehow be under the illusion that this will move the team forward.

Ödegaard has started 5 of the 15 PL games since Christmas. We were doing very well with ESR in the same role. Hopefully we can sign him but if not ... he won't be there for the next manager either. And we're probably more likely to sign him with Arteta here.

Very well stated.

As someone who follows both North American sports and European football, there is one thing culturally in each that I simply can't fathom.

In NA sports, it's that people completely ignore large sample size league results over a full season and evaluate everything based solely on a small sample size knockout competition. It's insanity. It's like if Arsenal wins the league but the manager gets fired because he got knocked out in the 3rd round of the FA Cup.

And in football, the thing is the manager carousels. It's absolutely ****ing nuts. In NA sports, everyone accepts that it takes years to evaluate the job that managers/coaches are doing as they implement systems and put teams together. Barring the odd total disaster, it's pretty rare for a GM/head coach in any of the major NA sports to last less than 3 years. My NHL team has had 4 GMs and 5 head coaches in the last 22 years, and that's fairly average. But in the EPL, you basically have half the teams changing their manager every year at the first sign of a rough patch. Then bring in a new guy who wants new players and a new system, maybe get an initial bump in the first month or two, and then a year later fire that guy after the next rough patch. And before you know it you've changed directions 4 times in 5 years with 4 different systems and 4 different sets of players and then supporters wonder why the team never seems to be going anywhere. Mental. United are doing better right now with a sorta crap manager than they did with several actual good managers they quickly turned over because they just ... left him in place for a while, let him do his job, let a group of players learn a system, and developed some consistency.

Tbh, I think the point you pick out for NA sports is just as big of a problem or more for football. Football fans are very bad at understanding small sample size effects (Emery is a good case in point; in a large sample size his teams have never performed; his CV and prestige was built entirely on small sample sizes in what is not even a top competition--EL. Mourinho is another, to a lesser extent; his teams have performed in a large sample only a couple times in the last decade, but he continues to have a good reputation based on cup competition successes with Porto and Inter). Football fans also are pretty ignorant / dismissive of underlying performance metrics, which I get the feeling NA sports fans are more open to and used to at this point (case in point: rarely is it discussed here or in general that Emery's """successful"" first season was built entirely on a massive--fluky, not-repeatable / sustainable-- overperforming of performance level / xG).

With your point about managers, I think it's important to note that a football manager is certainly far more influential in a team's success than a NA sports coach (perhaps with the exception of american tackleball?). Even the most talented of teams struggle without a good manager, especially at the highest level (see difference between Barça with Guardiola and after, or a million other examples; a good manager is absolutely necessary for sustained success). So it makes sense there would be more turnover here, especially given how bad at hiring good managers some of these top clubs are (see: Arsenal, Emery, Barça, Tata, Valverde, Koeman, Madrid, Benítez, Chelsea and Tottenham for years and years until Poch for Tottenham and until Chelsea started making more interesting at least hires like Conte, Sarri, etc., Liverpool pre-Klopp, United still, City pre- Guardiola). In NBA you see a lot of turnover, I think more than football, which makes sense to some extent because basketball is more talent-reliant in terms of success, but still...I'm not sure there's anything bad about sacking a manager when it's clear he's not the right man for the job. Anything more is time wasted. Barça wasted a good amount of time with Valverde, important years of Messi's prime when they could've / should've been competing for CLs but weren't going to with Valverde. Arsenal wasted important years when their competition wasn't nearly as strong as it is now and we had a strong window to compete for titles with Wenger. There's opportunity to be lost in not sacking at the right time, too, in short...Arsenal, I would've been happy if we sacked Em*ry the day Gazidis left, as his project never looked worth pursuing or interesting in the least, and he was a terrible / incompetent hire from the start (thanks to ignorance to small sample size effects / fact that he's never been a good manager in the league, as mentioned above).

Anyways, we agree that Arteta is the right man for the job currently, has a project that is worth pursuing and is making interesting progress and evolutions despite more hiccups early on than we might've liked, and that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by sacking him and looking for another alternative (short of Guardiola and/or Klopp suddenly becoming available, or Nagelsmann wanting to take the Arsenal job).

 

[say yes]

Christ, I am 25 years old and never been struck by lighting, really need to start being careful now.

Lighting tends to strike tall objects so you'll be fine.

 

[Rex Stone]

I mean, I am not so sure about this mate.

Surely the inverse could be true. We’ve never lost 9 games in a row before so the longer it doesn’t happen the likelier it becomes

 

[Rex Stone]

Lighting tends to strike tall objects so you'll be fine.

Interesting. Never knew that.

What about lightning?

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Surely the inverse could be true. We’ve never lost 9 games in a row before so the longer it doesn’t happen the likelier it becomes

Of course. But then you have to look at the probability of these happening. For example getting struck by lightning is one in a million, hitting a pot hole is pretty much one in one.

Arsenal losing 9 in a row is pretty outlandish, but Arsenal winning 9 in a row isn't, because of the calibre of the team/players etc etc. Lots of different scenarios with these things.

 

[OnlyOne]

Lighting tends to strike tall objects so you'll be fine.

Even if I climb a tree in a tin foil hat?

 

[OnlyOne]

Interesting. Never knew that.

What about lightning?

 

[Hunta]

BIG pressure on Arteta with Liverpool next up, a team with NO defence.

He bottled West Ham with a fully fit squad, if he bottles it against an injury ridden Liverpool side, you have to question his position I think.

 

[Rex Stone]

Unlike with Arteta, the Athletic were very critical of Frank and he didn't like that:

Wonder if a lot of managers read their press coverage even if they tell you otherwise?

 

[OnlyOne]

Of course. But then you have to look at the probability of these happening. For example getting struck by lightning is one in a million, hitting a pot hole is pretty much one in one.

Arsenal losing 9 in a row is pretty outlandish, but Arsenal winning 9 in a row isn't, because of the calibre of the team/players etc etc. Lots of different scenarios with these things.

I mean the probability of Arsenal being in a relegation battle was pretty slim and Mikel managed that so I think losing 9 games is more likely than winning 9.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

Our targets seem to be a CM (Bissouma), a right back (Emerson/Hakimi), a striker/wide forward and maybe a CB depending on what happens with the squad. And of course signing Ødegaard permanently/loan with buy obligation.

@GDeep™ do you not believe this is doable? I don't think we have to outspend our rivals, we just need to spend smart.

 

[HairSprayGooners]

I mean the probability of Arsenal being in a relegation battle was pretty slim and Mikel managed that so I think losing 9 games is more likely than winning 9.

We were never in a relegation battle

 

[GoonerJeeves]

We were never in a relegation battle

Big Sam had us down as big relegation rivals, hanging on by a thread....

 

[Riou]

Big Sam had us down as big relegation rivals, hanging on by a thread....

That was amazing, then we slapped him 4-0...really, really hate that fat man!

 

[say yes]

We were never in a relegation battle

Shhhh. Hearing the 'Will we get relegated?' thread is still going strong in the trusted forum.

@Trilly 's put together a spreadsheet comparing our remaining games with Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom's. Just finished working out the ramifications of last weekend's results on his abacus so can expect an update to the spreadsheet shortly.

Second most active thread in there after the 'topless gifs of Mourinho' one apparently.

 

[Riou]

Weird to me that managers/players read what the press writes about them, tbh...why would you even care?

 

[Blood on the Tracks]

Getting top 6 is going to be a slog I think.

The issue is going to be putting strings of wins together back to back and also the remaining fixture list looks pretty kind to us on paper but one of our issues this year has been putting away the weaker sides you'd expect us to beat.

In a one off game you'd probably back us to beat any bigger side under Arteta, barring Man City and maybe Liverpool. Arteta's at his best tactically against the better sides generally and seems to be able to get the players motivated and raring to go for them.

Looking at our remaining games whether we get Top 6 isn't really going to be dependent on beating Liverpool or Chelsea.

These are the fixtures that will determine how our season pans out

Sheffield United.
Everton.
Fulham.
Newcastle.
West Brom.
Crystal Palace.
Brighton.

It's going to dependent on us consistently putting away the decent to poor sides. Which has been one of our achilles heels this season.

Put them lot away and we'll get Europa League.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

I’m pretty sure and come to terms with us not even getting close to top 4 next season. Without massive funding I don’t see how Arteta closes the gap.

City are machine, Chelsea will sign a striker, Utd have a great squad and will make further moves, Liverpool will come back etc.

Agree. It is going to be tough unless we are a bit lucky and one of the teams you list implodes for some reason. Unfortunately only ManU still have a subpar coach in OGS so we don’t even have that to lean on.

thw biggest change in the league since 2015 is the inflow of really good coaches such as Pep and Klopp and now Tuchel. Only reverse outflow was that Sp**s fired Poch and he is now with PSG. In addition Potter, the Southampton coach etc. have joined. It’s tough competition. Miss when clowns like Tim Sherwood coached in the PL. Those were the days!