Mikel Arteta: Aston La Vista To The Title?

[Oxeki]

These are the kind of stuff that makes me hate him more

England's World Cup 2026 glory will be secured courtesy of Arsenal's six

The Arsenal influence in the England national side is increasing and by World Cup 2026 as many as six of the first XI could be representing the Gunners in North America.

www.football.london

 

[SA Gunner]

"Aston Villa recently acquired Gerrard" "while we stuck with lego-Pep"

 

[AbouCuéllar]

Ps don’t ever tell me what terms I can and can’t use I don’t give a **** what your condescending bore of an opinion is on anything, go tell other idiots online we should of lost NLD, and go burn your straw men, I never stated I don’t believe in stats this one is stupid. And I am done with my conversation with you I don’t talk to people who counter arguments with a link to Wikipedia on statistics as proof, I don’t have a problem with field of statistics just with this one as it is made up by mastubatory nerds so they can pretend to be smart

I think you quoted the wrong poster, mate...I didn't quote wikipedia nor have we been having an argument in this thread...

The issue is not the stat itself. I think it can be used very effectively at an individual level. What everybody needs to understand is that xG stats are stats which focus only on shots on goal and the relative positions from where the shots were taken. By using this one metric and calling it using an umbrealla term "underlying stat" and saying that these "underlying stats" show how well a team has played overall is very problematic. It doesn`t take into account the context of the game. A shot in the first 15 mins may not be the same as a shot in the last 15 mins for example.

If I say that a team has a much higher xG over 30 games than the actual goals scored, it does mean that the team is likely to score more goals. If a team has an xG which is much lesser than actual goals, it does mean that the the attack has been over performing and is likely to regress to the mean at some point of time. Finding out the expected points by taking that teams expected goals in 1 game and comparing it with the opposite team`s expected points in the same game is something that statistically doesn`t make sense to me.

Against Sp**s, we were 3-0 up and then sat back.Against Crystal Palace we were down 2-1 in 65 mins, anybody who saw both the games could clearly see that one was a very good performance and the other one was a relatively poor performance. xG would show that we had a higher expected goals in the Crystal Palace palace game for us though and as per expected points, we should have won the game. Again here xG makes sense because Crystal Palace sat back and we played a lot of football in their half towards the end of the game, It doesn`t necessarily mean we deserved to win that game because we were quite poor in all areas of the pitch on that day. It was just the tactics/incentives of the players in that particular game which caused this difference in xG and not the quality of the performance itself.

No doubt, mate, this is why xG is a flawed statistic for isolated matches, but these effects over the course of a season or a big enough sample even out. The fact is teams just don't, ever, consistently outperform their xG over various seasons (or consistently underperform it), and don't typically do so over long periods, ie the larger the sample the more xG and actual results level tend to converge, which is basically the definition of an underlying metric.

Can the metric be improved? Definitely. Is it perfect? No. But it's the best underlying metric we have at the moment for team performance and the fact that teams simply don't overperform their xG consistently over time and that xG and results levels converge as sample size increases quite simply makes it a metric of use (with the absolute need of context in isolated one game samples, as you point out, as that would just be using the metric to poor and anti-common sense effect).

It is very enviable watching Gerard, Howe, Rafa etc leading their club during their respective games while we have...

Umm...are you for real? lol.

 

[ArtetaOut]

Well done so far. Hopefully this goes on. I'll be more than happy for my words to be eaten come end of the season.

 

[Sanchez11]

Stats should be used in sport, you can't just dismiss them because you don't like them.

Though I don't think you should entirely focus on them, kinda takes the fun out of football.

You need a good mix.

As a nostalgia guru i cant believe your opening line here!

 

[Riou]

As a nostalgia guru i cant believe your opening line here!

The number of times I have just listed of all of Thierry's stats, in arguments about who is the best ever Prem player...so I can't do that, and not like stats just a little

 

[Sanchez11]

The number of times I have just listed of all of Thierry's stats, in arguments about who is the best ever Prem player...so I can't do that, and not like stats just a little

Only bvms disagree about Henry you dont need stats there mate!

 

[MartiSaka]

Y

You do realize the numbers are bollocks why are half of Arsenal’s goals unexpected according to this measure who decides based on what criteria. This is an opinion with a number attached to it doesn’t make it objective. It is like me claiming I gave a movie 4 stars, therefore it is scientifically a good movie because I attached a drastic to my opinion it is now objectively a watchable movie. It’s opinion dressed up in a number rating you get that right? You guys aren’t that dense think this really science and math?

Dont know what this has to do with my post about Wenger's recruitment decisions. But anyway u are incorrect about xG (if that what u are talking about), it's not a subjective rating like a movie review, its based upon underlying observed statistcs/ actions in the games that are associated with goal scoring. This doesn't mean that there is a deterministic relationship between xG and the number of goals scored (i.e. it will enable u to exactly determine the number of goals scored), but they are definitely strongly correlated i.e. a team with a very poor xG across a season is not going to be a top scoring team and will be somewhere towards the bottom of goal scoring with a very high probability.

 

[Riou]

Only bvms disagree about Henry you dont need stats there mate!

I agree...though Henry's the perfect mix, tbh.

Mad stats individually and with his teams, mixed with a ridiculous player to watch play.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Love this place! A week’s worth of debate to arrive at the conclusion that xG is a glorified shots and shots on target measurement that has some value and some flaws. All started by a random graph showing a different set of measurements on pressing I believe. At least we are not wasting our time! Reminds me of some discussions at work to be honest…

 

[Sanchez11]

Love this place! A week’s worth of debate to arrive at the conclusion that xG is a glorified shots and shots on target measurement that has some value and some flaws. All started by a random graph showing a different set of measurements on pressing I believe. At least we are not wasting our time! Reminds me of some discussions at work to be honest…

Agreed @American_Gooner started this!!

 

[Macho]

Agreed @American_Gooner started this!!

That guy is a trouble maker tbh.

 

[A_G]

Agreed @American_Gooner started this!!

It's proving Arteta is sh1t!!!

 

[Macho]

It's proving Arteta is sh1t!!!

Stats are for nerds like @Macho and @Trilly. If you know ball Mikel is the man.

Because of you I've been @'d more times than you have in this debate, I haven't even said sh*t.

Just how Arteta guys are conveniently Stevie Wondering the stats,
equally I don't need stats to tell me Arteta is doodoo.

 

[Sanchez11]

It's proving Arteta is sh1t!!!

Good!! Are you on the fence about tets?

 

[A_G]

Good!! Are you on the fence about tets?

Not going to worry about the manager because I have no control over it, whatever happens happens.

 

[Macho]

Good!! Are you on the fence about tets?

In before political answer.

*edit*

 

[Sanchez11]

Not going to worry about the manager because I have no control over it, whatever happens happens.

Well balanced view!

 

[Macho]

Not going to worry about the manager because I have no control over it, whatever happens happens.

2 years in? You can do better than that give us something.

Atleast percentage, 60% in 40% out for eg.
Or if he does _____ then I am Arteta in/out.

 

[rich 1990]

Love Arteta, guy's a genius.