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Mikel Starteta Wars - Phase IV: A Newaneri Hope

Should Arteta’s position as manager be under threat if we don’t win the PL or CL?


  • Total voters
    148

shoot for the top

Well-Known Member
Preseason is the time when the squad prepared for season, tactics, fitness, everything.
But it's just preseason, no competitive football matches.
When season actually starts with competitive football, coach might notice that he has to tweak something, players ar still raw, they lack match fitness, therefore football is still not fluent.
This is why early season doesn't look so convincing.

That being said, season 2022/23 was complete opposite.
We looked so good at the start of the season, and in last 9 matches we imploded.
Arteta should not be figuring out "tactics" after 5 years here.
 

El Realista

Well-Known Member

Country: Mexico

Player:Zinchenko
Or you’d say that once in 20 the striker hits the ball with perfect power and accuracy so that the keeper can’t reach it. Which ofc is easier if you’re up against Raya compared to most keepers because of his relative shortness.

It’s not BS, it’s actually the best predictor for performance there is, at least if we don’t make it super complex.

What is bullshit though, is that similarly to other sports, it’s affected the game in that academy kids are from a relatively low age taught to only take certain shots in order to maximize output. So it has impacted the game’s spirit and beauty in the same way all data eventually do.
The other 19 times is Havertz striking the ball.
 

Batman

Hard on crime, soft on Stan

Country: USA

Player:Nwaneri
I just can’t believe that there’s only a 5% chance a professional player scores from there. I don’t get it. So 100 people were in that position and only 5 scored?

Surely it’s 10-20% minimum.
xG is clear nonsense when you consider it has no way of accounting for the individual player taking the shot. xG is calculated the same way regardless of whether it's Messi or Harry Maguire taking the same shot in the same position. Realistically every individual player probably has a different xG and that's before we even get to things like wind and pitch condition. It's just crap made by nerds probably at the behest of gambling firms to make their marks feel like they have more information to place bets with.
 

Macho

Elitist

Country: England
I think xg has it's place if not followed blindly or used poorly. It's certainly used within the industry.

As long as it doesn't replace watching, anything that challenges tropes and biases is welcome for sure.
 

Entropics

Established Member

Country: Colombia

Player:Saka
xG is what it is, the problem is you believing it meant Fulham lucked out instead of appreciating a cool finish from a PL player. That's football.

We don't have anything else to go on atm so it's understandable. You don't really want to see corner fc cornering fc its way to a title, so you go to the numbers.
 

Batman

Hard on crime, soft on Stan

Country: USA

Player:Nwaneri
I think xg has it's place if not followed blindly or used poorly. It's certainly used within the industry.

As long as it doesn't replace watching, anything that challenges tropes and biases is welcome for sure.
Maybe but it should be refined if it's going to be used seriously. If we're treating a Messi free kick from 20 yards and a CR7 free kick from 20 yards like they're the same chance, then we have an issue.
 

Red London

Anti-Simp Culture
xG is clear nonsense when you consider it has no way of accounting for the individual player taking the shot. xG is calculated the same way regardless of whether it's Messi or Harry Maguire taking the same shot in the same position. Realistically every individual player probably has a different xG and that's before we even get to things like wind and pitch condition. It's just crap made by nerds probably at the behest of gambling firms to make their marks feel like they have more information to place bets with.
I see that. Surely with the sophisticated algorithms and AI we have these days, better models can be made.

When judging the xG of an opportunity, why don’t they combine the ‘generic’ xG score which you explain there, with the conversion rate and all the statistics of the individual player who gets the opportunity? There won’t be enough data there for every scenario but you can get a good picture of the way they finish in certain areas and apply a ‘weight’ to the final xG score.

So if Gabriel gets a headed opportunity from a corner at the edge of the 6 yard box, it is a higher xG than if it’s a random player. But also more than other tall CBs who have not converted headers much. If it’s someone who barely gets chances like that, you apply the generic xG score to it.

It would paint a much better picture of the game.
 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant

Country: Sweden
xG is clear nonsense when you consider it has no way of accounting for the individual player taking the shot. xG is calculated the same way regardless of whether it's Messi or Harry Maguire taking the same shot in the same position. Realistically every individual player probably has a different xG and that's before we even get to things like wind and pitch condition. It's just crap made by nerds probably at the behest of gambling firms to make their marks feel like they have more information to place bets with.
This is very true and it also likely differs between different positions. But the difference at the top level isn’t actually as big as you’d think. Take Salah for example, his goal scoring record is bang on his npxG if you look at his career.

Then ofc you do have your Messi’s, Ronaldo’s and Haaland’s, but they’re more of an exception than not. Even Harry Kane hasn’t grossly outperformed his underlying numbers and Lewandowski has underperformed from a npxG perspective throughout their respective careers.
 

Macho

Elitist

Country: England
Maybe but it should be refined if it's going to be used seriously. If we're treating a Messi free kick from 20 yards and a CR7 free kick from 20 yards like they're the same chance, then we have an issue.

I am sure whatever the public is given access to isn't what the industry uses exactly. I think what you said about some layman's version being pushed by betting companies is also probably true.
 

Sebastes

Statbomb Merchant

Country: Sweden
Maybe but it should be refined if it's going to be used seriously. If we're treating a Messi free kick from 20 yards and a CR7 free kick from 20 yards like they're the same chance, then we have an issue.
See my other post. It’s actually not that big of an issue
 

HattoriHanzo

Well-Known Member

Country: Croatia
Arteta should not be figuring out "tactics" after 5 years here.
You think that Arteta (and other managers) don't modify their tactics from season to season?
You think that Arsenal tactics from season 2020/21 is the same as this season?
Every summer Arsenal buys new players, you think that they shouldn't learn tactics in new club?
And you think that old players shouldn't learn how to gel with new players?
 

SA Gunner

The butcher from Cape Town
Moderator

Country: South Africa
We need to add more directness to our attack, specifically around central zones. More balls into the half spaces and passes through zone 14.

We are so brilliant at ensuring our rest defense remains in place throughout all phases of play, so we have license to attack opposition defenses while they are still reorganising back into shape. There is a risk to this, as we saw with Liverpool, but its a risk worth taking IMO, especially when we have our best available.

Just being more direct in our attacking play, will make quite a difference I feel.
 

shoot for the top

Well-Known Member
You think that Arteta (and other managers) don't modify their tactics from season to season?
You think that Arsenal tactics from season 2020/21 is the same as this season?
Every summer Arsenal buys new players, you think that they shouldn't learn tactics in new club?
And you think that old players shouldn't learn how to gel with new players?
Do you think we have good attacking tactics?
 

SA Gunner

The butcher from Cape Town
Moderator

Country: South Africa
And also need to add Rory Delap. It’ll be a perfect team.

Still hurting from your embarassment at the Emirates I see :lol:

Just imagine the pain you will experience once a clinical striker comes in. Both impossible goals and set pieces to kill you ;)
 

Trilly

All views posted are NOT my own

Country: England
You sort of start to think that the whole importance of the “process”, the “fundamentals”, the “mentality change”, that is attributed to Arteta, isn’t actually that important, when you see Chelsea sitting above us. A club with no process other than ‘spend lots of money on every player, hire some random coach, banish the players you don’t like, and hey presto’.

The best process in the world isn’t gonna make up for not having enough talent on the pitch.
There was a big debate on here about the process/culture stuff and how important it is or isn’t.

It was dismissed as just being anti-Arteta propaganda but I still stand by it just being PR. Nobody really cares or talks about that stuff until you’re winning stuff and doing documentaries ten years later.

We were the first club to make a big deal about the process and culture with nothing to show for it. Fast forward a couple years and now even we aren’t talking about the process/culture anymore but have switched to needing ‘X-factor’.

Funny that.
 

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