fuzz
Active Member
As Arsenal fans, we’ve gone through great moments and some goddamn awful ones too. Speaking to fellow Arsenal fans, we seem to get a sixth sense for when a poor performance is coming. As a result, I thought it was about time, for the sake of our hearts, that we try to develop a fool proof system for predicting results, or at least give ourselves some forewarning for the increased chance of a poor result. Here is an first attempt to produce such a system.
Factors affecting performance:
Over the years, two key factors seem to have been integral in poor Arsenal performances. These factors are as follows:
SCENARIO A) When there is expectation on us to win and there is pressure on us – These types of scenarios are characterised by reference to our superior record to the opposition, and the opposition is given very little if any chance of winning (by the media). We also often talk up our belief in ourselves, but generally everyone expects us to win and the match really matters as there is a chance of winning something. The opposition are effectively allowed to play pressure free. It happened in 1999 against Leeds, it happened against Chelsea in 2004 in the champions league and against Monaco last year oh and very nearly happened against Hull in the FA Cup final!
Summary: This is our Achilles heel and seems to recur through Wenger teams. 40% chance of a winning.
SCENARIO B) When there is expectation on us to win, but no pressure – This scenario is characterised by early stages of tournaments and run of the mill league games against mid-table teams at home in the middle of the season. It’s the type of game which we can afford lose, because we have time and future games to make amends with. As a result there is not pressure.
Summary: We tend to win these. 80-90% chance of winning
SCENARIO C) When there is pressure, but not expectation – This is the oddest scenario. People often say we can’t deal with pressure and that’s simply not true. We have consistently qualified for the champions league despite huge pressure and won some real crunch games to get there. However, this is not the same as winning something and so the pressure is different.
Summary: We’re surprisingly good at winning these. 70-80% chance of winning.
Yesterday’s game was a good example of Scenario A. We we’re expected to win. West Ham were given little if any chance. Constant reference to our superior record was made and we were talking ourselves up. In addition, this game had pressure. We wanted to avoid the poor start of last year and this is because there is a realistic chance of us winning the league this year. Expectation + Pressure = 40% chance of victory. I rest my case.
Fuzzbubble
Factors affecting performance:
Over the years, two key factors seem to have been integral in poor Arsenal performances. These factors are as follows:
- Expectation – When we are clear favourites with little if an apparent chance of the opposition to win or get any kind of result.
- Pressure – When there is a chance of winning something.
SCENARIO A) When there is expectation on us to win and there is pressure on us – These types of scenarios are characterised by reference to our superior record to the opposition, and the opposition is given very little if any chance of winning (by the media). We also often talk up our belief in ourselves, but generally everyone expects us to win and the match really matters as there is a chance of winning something. The opposition are effectively allowed to play pressure free. It happened in 1999 against Leeds, it happened against Chelsea in 2004 in the champions league and against Monaco last year oh and very nearly happened against Hull in the FA Cup final!
Summary: This is our Achilles heel and seems to recur through Wenger teams. 40% chance of a winning.
SCENARIO B) When there is expectation on us to win, but no pressure – This scenario is characterised by early stages of tournaments and run of the mill league games against mid-table teams at home in the middle of the season. It’s the type of game which we can afford lose, because we have time and future games to make amends with. As a result there is not pressure.
Summary: We tend to win these. 80-90% chance of winning
SCENARIO C) When there is pressure, but not expectation – This is the oddest scenario. People often say we can’t deal with pressure and that’s simply not true. We have consistently qualified for the champions league despite huge pressure and won some real crunch games to get there. However, this is not the same as winning something and so the pressure is different.
Summary: We’re surprisingly good at winning these. 70-80% chance of winning.
Yesterday’s game was a good example of Scenario A. We we’re expected to win. West Ham were given little if any chance. Constant reference to our superior record was made and we were talking ourselves up. In addition, this game had pressure. We wanted to avoid the poor start of last year and this is because there is a realistic chance of us winning the league this year. Expectation + Pressure = 40% chance of victory. I rest my case.
Fuzzbubble
