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Premier League 2018/19: The Fight for a CL Spot

Where do you foresee us finishing this season?


  • Total voters
    214

Mo Britain

Doom Monger
Winning tomorrow is very important because you really have to expect us to beat Huddersfield at home at the weekend. There is a slight chance Chelsea may drop points tomorrow but if they don't, they are playing City at the weekend. Unless they win that - which wouldn't be bad because it ends chance of City being Invincibles - we would definitely be 3rd then and also a chance of Liverpool and Spuds dropping points at weekend.
 

HBL

Established Member
Huddersfield, Soton, Burnley, 3 of the bottom 4 and Brighton left to play before the half way stage. We have a great chance of being top 4, perhaps even with a little cushion going into the 2nd half of the season.
I'm sticking by my 78-80 point prediction for top four, if we can win the next four, which we easily could then we are in a great position for top four.
 

Jasard

Forum Issue Troubleshooter
Moderator

Country: England
Pretty annoying we are below Sp**s after beating them. 20 unbeaten though now across the board.

It's interesting how the top teams are pulling away from the rest of the league. Liverpool having the best start in their history and are 2nd, we're 20 games unbeaten in all comps but are 5th.
 
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The_Playmaker

Established Member
Trusted ⭐
Pretty annoying we are below Sp**s after beating them. 20 unbeaten though now across the board.

It is annoying. But if we beat Huddersfield and City carry on going, we will be in 4th 3 points clear of Chelsea. It's then all on us to maintain consistency.

I think the January transfer window is key. Making a marquee attacking signing in January could be key as well as a defensive one. In the final month of the Premier League we face Sp**s while Sp**s face Chelsea. The state of the squad will dictate those results. Holding is probably out for the season.
 

Jasard

Forum Issue Troubleshooter
Moderator

Country: England
Think we might have a really healthy points total by the end of the season and may just pip 3rd. Think generally the top 4 will have a lot of points that in past seasons would probably win the league. City and Liverpool will be super close. Sp**s will fall away a bit later in the season.
 

TornadoTed

Established Member
I'm sticking by my 78-80 point prediction for top four, if we can win the next four, which we easily could then we are in a great position for top four.

78-80 points is a lot but I think you may be right as the top 5 look really strong and are all performing very strongly.

The average over the last 10 years to finish in 4th place is 69 Points (68.5 to be precise)

76 points would have got top 4 in all of the last 10 season and 73 points would have got top 4 in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
 

HBL

Established Member
78-80 points is a lot but I think you may be right as the top 5 look really strong and are all performing very strongly.

The average over the last 10 years to finish in 4th place is 69 Points (68.5 to be precise)

76 points would have got top 4 in all of the last 10 season and 73 points would have got top 4 in 9 of the last 10 seasons.
76 points needed the last two seasons though, the gap is getting bigger. There is usually a couple of teams outside of the big six that start well and then begin to tail off in the second half of the season. Not sure on United but I think the other big teams will win at least 20 out of 28 against teams below them in the table so then it just depends on how shared the points are between the big six when they play each other.
 

TornadoTed

Established Member
76 points needed the last two seasons though, the gap is getting bigger. There is usually a couple of teams outside of the big six that start well and then begin to tail off in the second half of the season. Not sure on United but I think the other big teams will win at least 20 out of 28 against teams below them in the table so then it just depends on how shared the points are between the big six when they play each other.

Not actually true, 71 points would have got 4th place last season as Chelsea were 5th with 70 points. You are correct that 76 was required in 2016-17 though, but that was the highest needed in the last decade.
 

TornadoTed

Established Member
If anyone is interested the 5th placed team in the Premier League for the last 10 years got,

17/18 - 70
16/17 - 75
15/16 - 65
14/15 - 64
13-14 - 72
12/13 - 72
11/12 - 65
10/11 - 62
09/10 - 67
08/09 - 63

You only have to be 1 point ahead of the 5th placed team to be 4th!
 
The stat nerds at 538 said 70 points would get Chelsea 4th on August 10, but their expectations have grown as the season has progressed. After yesterday's matches they have Sp**s 3rd with 77 and Chelsea and Arsenal tied at 74. (They currently expect Chelsea to have a better GD but only by 5)

If you scroll to the bottom, you can see how expectations have changed with every week of games.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Kind of interesting that Sp**s, Arsenal and Chelsea are all currently rated as more likely than not to finish in the last two champions league places.
 

Rex Stone

Long live the fighters
Trusted ⭐

Country: Wales
Looks like the Liverpool game on the 29th could be a huge one for us.

If they drop points against Utd this week then Wolves away, we’re in business.
 

Dutch D

Well-Known Member & FPL Champion 19/20
You only have to be 1 point ahead of the 5th placed team to be 4th!
Well, not necessarily. If you're not one of those 5 teams and the nr 5 on the table has 70 and nr 4 has 73, you need one more point than nr4 to be fourth. Or better goal difference.
 

samshere

Why so serieuse?
I don't think the top teams are going to continue in this vein of form. The lower half of the table aren't pushovers and you'll see the bigger teams drop more points in the second half.
 

bingobob

A-M’s Resident Hunskelper
Trusted ⭐

Country: Scotland
If we compare the league to this stage last season Man city had 46 points and were 11 clear of United on 35 in second while we had 29 points and were in 5th.

This season Liverpool have 42 City have 41 and we have 34 in 5th place. We can push on still and finish well. But we need to focus on ourselves and stop the silly mistakes that saw United level against us and Palace like wise. Do that and who knows. But its about us and only ourselves and what we do that counts.
 

GunnerBP

Established Member
Trusted ⭐
I think we can definitely finish above Chelsea and Sp**s this season. Clearly, I watch more Arsenal matches than any other team, but as I look at City, Pool, Chelsea or Sp**s, I wonder how those teams could improve as the season progresses, yet I feel that Arsenal still has a lot of room for improvement. Being where we are despite some obvious weaknesses bodes well for us if Emery can figure it out.

City are basically at peak City, and maybe the return of De Bruyen in the second half of the season could give them a boost. Liverpool have almost zero injuries and are at peak level too.

Chelsea have some obvious problems and I'm not sure if Sarri can fix them. Everyone knows how Chelsea will play, what their formation will be, and pretty much who they will play each match. They do not have a legitimate goal threat at CF, and the success of the squad mostly depends on Hazard scoring a bunch of goals, and Kante excelling in a more advanced position. Kante is amazing, and he scored against City, but basing a midfield on Kante scoring goals instead of winning tackles doesn't seem like the best idea.

Sp**s are just Sp**s. They're over-dependent on Kane, and I think this squad is at their max right now.

As for us, Emery still has a lot of work to do to get us at our highest level, but I think it is attainable. Right now injuries are kind of our biggest issue, but Kos' and Monreal's returns will be a big help now that Holding is out for the season. There's a big question about Nketiah stepping up for Welbeck, but in PEA and Laca we have two of the best forwards in the league, so we should be fine.

Our big question mark is AM, and we still have Özil. We've done a lot without him, but we can do even more with him. If Emery can get the best out of Özil and decide who can partner him, then we can go up another level.

I think we have more room for improvement than our opposition, and based on Emery thus far, I wouldn't be surprised if he figured it out. But at the very least, we can grind out matches, and that alone could get us into the top four.
 

Gooner Zig

AM's Resident Accountant
Trusted ⭐

Country: Canada
78-80 points is a lot but I think you may be right as the top 5 look really strong and are all performing very strongly.

The average over the last 10 years to finish in 4th place is 69 Points (68.5 to be precise)

76 points would have got top 4 in all of the last 10 season and 73 points would have got top 4 in 9 of the last 10 seasons.

If things stay as they are, 80 points will get us 5th, which is insane.
 

Mark Tobias

Mr. Agreeable
Well, not necessarily. If you're not one of those 5 teams and the nr 5 on the table has 70 and nr 4 has 73, you need one more point than nr4 to be fourth. Or better goal difference.
What? He's talking about the finish at the end not some scenario where we're 6th with 2 games to play. How it ends you need 1 point to beat 5th or a better GD.
 

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