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Premier League 2022/23

Do you believe we can win the Premier League?


  • Total voters
    255

SA Gunner

Hates Tierney And Wants Him Sold Immediately
Moderator

Country: South Africa

Player:Nketiah
Why should I? The way he wanted a penalty for the Arsenal was anything but subtle

He's on our side, embrace it

How so?

The first goal was completely the referees making. No checks, nothing. Unlike our penalty. What about the consistent fouls on our players, like Tierney, Martinelli, Saka?

Sometimes its important to look beyond your agenda, and what actually happens out there.
 

Oxeki

Match Day Thread Merchant
Trusted ⭐

Country: Nigeria

Player:Saliba
That's 16 games then which is a total of max 48 points.

So with 40 points in the bag, how would that bring us with 90+ points :lol:

Another @Oxeki classic, this time with Essien's calculator
88 points or 90 point, who cares?

We going for the title baby😍
With the form of city currently, I don't see how city will be able to match that.
 

Yousif Arsenal

On Vinai's payroll & misses 4th place trophy 🏆
Trusted ⭐

17 points more than last season damn and last season we were solid. If we get 9 points from next 4 games and finish first half of season around 45-50 points we into something special.
 

BaZZe

Always Blaming Refs

Country: Sweden
Pretty sure it was higher than 70%, and more importantly he gave her a 99.9% chance of winning some big swing state which she lost. 538 is one of the biggest scams in a country consisting of mostly scammers.

Just look at this gross charlatan, he could predict to me that after green the traffic light turns to red and I wouldn't believe him

nate-1024x646.jpg


And when he's not spectacularly wrong he makes "predictions" like these

This reads like someone who hasn't got a clue how statistics and probabilities work. I'd like a source on that "99.9% swing state" number too because that just sounds like you're chatting ****.

I can definitely buy that the football probabilities because with politics you have polling data as empirical evidence that is at least somewhat reliable. With football it's harder to quantify some objective metric to predict who is going to win.
 

db10_therza

🎵 Edu getting rickrolled 🎵
Trusted ⭐

Country: Bangladesh

Player:Martinelli
This reads like someone who hasn't got a clue how statistics and probabilities work. I'd like a source on that "99.9% swing state" number too because that just sounds like you're chatting ****.

I can definitely buy that the football probabilities because with politics you have polling data as empirical evidence that is at least somewhat reliable. With football it's harder to quantify some objective metric to predict who is going to win.

Idk, in a first past the post world I can very easily see how you can get to 99.9% probability from erroneous polling data. You have a sample size (in the polling data) of a few thousand meant to capture a population of millions. But if that sample indicates 70% going for Hillary then thats at least a 95%+ probability. The problem with political predictions has been the paradigm shift caused by a rise in populism in the last decade which requires recalibration of their models (read: need much bigger samples to derive confidence). Which tbf, they have done now (after brexit, trump, bojo landslide).

Football is not first past the post...

Edit: Should say, the league table is not first past the post. Individual games kinda are though I guess?
 

Gooner Zig

AM's Resident Accountant
Trusted ⭐

Country: Canada
This reads like someone who hasn't got a clue how statistics and probabilities work. I'd like a source on that "99.9% swing state" number too because that just sounds like you're chatting ****.

I can definitely buy that the football probabilities because with politics you have polling data as empirical evidence that is at least somewhat reliable. With football it's harder to quantify some objective metric to predict who is going to win.

Even the polling data is rubbish; the way they take their samples are not true representations of the populace. It's why the mainstream pollsters have been so awful in recent times. Additionally, there's the preference falsification effect.
 

jones

Captain Serious
Trusted ⭐
This reads like someone who hasn't got a clue how statistics and probabilities work. I'd like a source on that "99.9% swing state" number too because that just sounds like you're chatting ****.

Posted in the article I quoted above, funny btw how you use Silver's exact same "no one bar me understands statistics" argument. Do you work for that website or are you just being a complete bellend for no reason?
 

DJ_Markstar

Based and Artetapilled

Player:Martinelli
It just hit me. After Brighton, we would have played all the top 10 teams (except City of course) once and beaten them. City still have to play Chelsea and Spuds twice plus at some point they will have to prioritize the CL. We might just pull this off.

Apart from Manure, but yes the point still stands. Also, before yesterday we'd played 6 at home and 8 away and were 5 points clear, so we still have 12 home games and 11 away games to go. We could conceivably win every home game at this rate.
 

DJ_Markstar

Based and Artetapilled

Player:Martinelli

17 points more than last season damn and last season we were solid. If we get 9 points from next 4 games and finish first half of season around 45-50 points we into something special.

For me, a more important comparison is like-for-like games, and we're +10 points on last season in that regard having won all the games we won last season, in addition to improved results vs Palace, Brentford, Liverpool and Southampton vs last season.

EDIT: considering that we're 1.33 times last season's points tally on a like-for-like basis, which would give us around 92 points. If you just take a raw average of our points tally so far (2.66 points per game) and times it by 38 games, you get 101 points. Either way we're looking very good.
 
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Mrs Bergkamp

Double Dusted
Dusted 🔻
My head is spinning tbh and I just want to stay grounded. What would give me more hope would be an early January transfer and more faith in Eddie's (the team's) scoring ability. The next 5 games are crucial and I'd take a draw vs Everton to beat the rest. It's that kind of season. At this rate, I feel we need to prioritise the league over EL. It's tantalising.
 

BaZZe

Always Blaming Refs

Country: Sweden

Posted in the article I quoted above,
Oh you weren't even talking about Hillary v. Trump one. It was that Michigan primary race. :facepalm:
Well if you look at how big of a polling average lead Hillary had you have your answer right there for why that race was rated like that.

funny btw how you use Silver's exact same "no one bar me understands statistics" argument. Do you work for that website or are you just being a complete bellend for no reason?
Nah you just sound like one of those typical "wow something that only had a 30% chance of happening according to the model happened, therefore probability theory is useless" people.
 

BaZZe

Always Blaming Refs

Country: Sweden
Even the polling data is rubbish; the way they take their samples are not true representations of the populace. It's why the mainstream pollsters have been so awful in recent times. Additionally, there's the preference falsification effect.
Nah not really, I don't think the polling averages in the recent election cycles have been outside or att least not far off from a normal polling error. You have to to take into account the margin of error when you look at a poll.
 

db10_therza

🎵 Edu getting rickrolled 🎵
Trusted ⭐

Country: Bangladesh

Player:Martinelli
Nah not really, I don't think the polling averages in the recent election cycles have been outside or att least not far off from a normal polling error. You have to to take into account the margin of error when you look at a poll.

The trump win was outside the margin of error. The issue isn’t just the sample size, it was systemic biases in the screening for the samples, eg disproportionate representation of people with higher education (who were more likely to vote democrat) in the polling data (similar issue with brexit polling).
 

Entropics

Established Member

Country: Colombia

Player:Saka
How so?

The first goal was completely the referees making. No checks, nothing. Unlike our penalty. What about the consistent fouls on our players, like Tierney, Martinelli, Saka?

Sometimes its important to look beyond your agenda, and what actually happens out there.

Even Henry asked why he didn't believe VAR officials and had to check himself there was no handball, he also spared Xhaka from his obvious Xhaka yellow after a pretty poor foul on Antonio and gave Cresswell a silly yellow for being reckless on a challenge where Martinelli didn't even pretend to contest the ball, just received the contact and cried.

Apply your own advice, if you like everyone else here believed in that conspiracy fairytale, then remember a conspiracy doesn't mean it's always against you. And if you believe league winners not called Arsenal always had refs on their side, then bask in the knowledge that with Super Mik Oliver we have that box ticked this season.
 

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