Premier League 2023/24: Race For 🤔

[Macho]

The Briefing: Are Arsenal the main threat to Man City? How bad can it get for Chelsea?

This week, The Briefing assesses the Premier League contenders, considers Chelsea's decline and reflects on Sheffield United's misery

theathletic.com

Spoiler: Are Arsenal the main threat to Man City?

What did this weekend tell us about the chasing pack?​

By Nick Miller
Sep 25, 2023


The thing that was most striking about the north London derby was how similar the two teams were.

Both looked incisive and thrilling in attack. Both had moments of defensive vulnerability. Both dealt with adversity, in their own way. And both showed that, after key men went off — Declan Rice for Arsenal; James Maddison and Son Heung-min for Sp**s — their teams ultimately can be quite brittle.

But it was also striking how close they looked in terms of quality levels. Arsenal will (justifiably) argue they have a season or so of good form behind them, whereas Sp**s have only six games. But on this evidence, it would be pretty tough to confidently say who is going to be better for the remainder of the season.

It’s a testament to just how quickly Ange Postecoglou has made sense of this very new and young set of players. The sample size is small but this game perhaps provided evidence that their hopeful start to the season isn’t just about good vibes and stirring oratory.

Maddison suggested as such, after the game: “Neutrals talk about Tottenham, they often say: soft, weak, bottle it, Spursy, all that rubbish. The last couple of weeks show we might be going in a slightly different direction.”


This is not necessarily to suggest Arsenal are weaker than they were last season, when they pushed Manchester City until the last few weeks of the campaign. They had some key players out injured and are still trying to incorporate the new additions and new ideas that Mikel Arteta has brought in.



Son and Maddison impressed — but Sp**s coped when they went off too (Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)

Will they push City again? The season so far, and this weekend specifically, has suggested what we already knew: City are the heavy favourites to win the league again, but if anyone is going to push them then it won’t just be Arsenal this time.

Take Liverpool: their defeat of West Ham was their fifth league win in a row, the only points they have dropped this season coming in that slightly odd game against Chelsea on the opening weekend. They have managed to replace their entire midfield more effectively and efficiently than most could realistically have hoped. Their strikers are scoring. The defence remains a bit of a concern, but it is worth pointing out that only City have conceded fewer goals.

And then there’s Brighton and Aston Villa. Nobody legitimately expects either to seriously trouble City, but their victories this weekend showed, in different ways, why they are at least genuine contenders for the top four.

 

[Synical]

When did the title of this thread change to "Race For " and who's idea was it ?

 

[Synical]

The Briefing: Are Arsenal the main threat to Man City? How bad can it get for Chelsea?

This week, The Briefing assesses the Premier League contenders, considers Chelsea's decline and reflects on Sheffield United's misery

theathletic.com

Spoiler: Are Arsenal the main threat to Man City?

What did this weekend tell us about the chasing pack?​

By Nick Miller
Sep 25, 2023


The thing that was most striking about the north London derby was how similar the two teams were.

Both looked incisive and thrilling in attack. Both had moments of defensive vulnerability. Both dealt with adversity, in their own way. And both showed that, after key men went off — Declan Rice for Arsenal; James Maddison and Son Heung-min for Sp**s — their teams ultimately can be quite brittle.

But it was also striking how close they looked in terms of quality levels. Arsenal will (justifiably) argue they have a season or so of good form behind them, whereas Sp**s have only six games. But on this evidence, it would be pretty tough to confidently say who is going to be better for the remainder of the season.

It’s a testament to just how quickly Ange Postecoglou has made sense of this very new and young set of players. The sample size is small but this game perhaps provided evidence that their hopeful start to the season isn’t just about good vibes and stirring oratory.

Maddison suggested as such, after the game: “Neutrals talk about Tottenham, they often say: soft, weak, bottle it, Spursy, all that rubbish. The last couple of weeks show we might be going in a slightly different direction.”


This is not necessarily to suggest Arsenal are weaker than they were last season, when they pushed Manchester City until the last few weeks of the campaign. They had some key players out injured and are still trying to incorporate the new additions and new ideas that Mikel Arteta has brought in.

View attachment 18781

Son and Maddison impressed — but Sp**s coped when they went off too (Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images)

Will they push City again? The season so far, and this weekend specifically, has suggested what we already knew: City are the heavy favourites to win the league again, but if anyone is going to push them then it won’t just be Arsenal this time.

Take Liverpool: their defeat of West Ham was their fifth league win in a row, the only points they have dropped this season coming in that slightly odd game against Chelsea on the opening weekend. They have managed to replace their entire midfield more effectively and efficiently than most could realistically have hoped. Their strikers are scoring. The defence remains a bit of a concern, but it is worth pointing out that only City have conceded fewer goals.

And then there’s Brighton and Aston Villa. Nobody legitimately expects either to seriously trouble City, but their victories this weekend showed, in different ways, why they are at least genuine contenders for the top four.

Thanks for this. Quite upsetting to read. We blew it last season

 

[Macho]

Thanks for this. Quite upsetting to read. We blew it last season

Just an opinion piece, wasn’t even backed up by a solid argument or reasons why other than “look at Liverpool”.

That said it does feel nothing like this time last season though, but it’s only game week 7.

 

[blaze_of_glory]

Just an opinion piece, wasn’t even backed up by a solid argument or reasons why other than “look at Liverpool”.

That said it does feel nothing like this time last season though, but it’s only game week 7.

Well we were in first place vs 5th now, so its hardly as exciting. But unless I'm mistaken we're only one point back of where we were at this time last season, and undefeated (we had lost to Man U by this point). So it probably feels worse than it actually is.

 

[blaze_of_glory]

If you look at the league table on the sidebar, just so many losses from everyone 10th and below. Thats why there are more teams with points at the top, the bottom of the league isn't taking points of any of them yet (except Fulham vs us

 

[Sanchez11]

If you look at the league table on the sidebar, just so many losses from everyone 10th and below. Thats why there are more teams with points at the top, the bottom of the league isn't taking points of any of them yet (except Fulham vs us

The quality has plummeted

 

[2Smokeyy]

Who do you think has had a harder start? Liverpool or us?

 

[UpTheGunnerz]

Who do you think has had a harder start? Liverpool or us?

Us. Palace and Everton away are tricky. Chelsea away ez nowadays and washedpool only got a draw there

 

[db10_therza]

Who do you think has had a harder start? Liverpool or us?

Pretty even I think? Pool might edge it given the recent form of their opponents but not compared to last years league position I think? Either way there’s not much in it.

What’s interesting though is that they are outperforming their xGD by 4 and we’re underperforming it by 0.6.

You’d assume that would come back to the mean a bit but also I dunno about our strikers converting their xG.

 

[Macho]

Who do you think has had a harder start? Liverpool or us?

Liverpool easy. When i was looking at the FPL stuff over the summer many experts were tripling up on Arsenal assets expecting big hauls.

Wolves and West Ham will be extremely tough matches for us.

 

[db10_therza]

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View attachment 18791


Liverpool easy. When i was looking at the FPL stuff over the summer many experts were tripling up on Arsenal assets expecting big hauls.

Arteta f*cked them all up dropping Gabriel
Ødegaard taking the pen screwed a lot of Saka owners as well.

Arsenal were much better fpl assets last season, now there is not as many goals yet and a lot more rotation.

Nah nah them fpl difficulty tings are biased innit.

They are usually a prediction of whether say Arse / Pool should have won the games (and therefore if their assets might bang), and since we finished so high last season their algorithm will have us down as beating most teams at the start of the season.

This means you can’t compare fixture difficulties across two teams like that in an absolute sense. Eg if City are playing Arsenal it will be predicted as an easy fixture for City . But if Utd play Arsenal will be predicted as a hard fixture. Even though it’s the same old Arsenal…

That being said I have no idea which FPL bítchboi site you threw your hard earned money at and how they work out their fixture map. This is just how it’s usually done.

 

[Macho]

Nah nah them fpl difficulty tings are biased innit.

They are usually a prediction of whether say Arse / Pool should have won the games (and therefore if their assets might bang), and since we finished so high last season their algorithm will have us down as beating most teams at the start of the season.

This means you can’t compare fixture difficulties across two teams like that in an absolute sense. Eg if City are playing Arsenal it will be predicted as an easy fixture for City . But if Utd play Arsenal will be predicted as a hard fixture. Even though it’s the same old Arsenal…

That being said I have no idea which FPL bítchboi site you threw your hard earned money at and how they work out their fixture map. This is just how it’s usually done.

Newcastle, Villa and West Ham are better than anybody we've faced bar Tottenham

We can include Utd as one of our tough fixtures as well if you want to be traditional.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

Newcastle away definitely a more difficult fixture than any we faced, fairly even otherwise, we've have usually regarded Sp**s at home as won we'd win.

 

[2Smokeyy]

Us. Palace and Everton away are tricky. Chelsea away ez nowadays and washedpool only got a draw there

I think West Ham and Wolves are tricky games as @Macho pointed out. Newcastle are blowing teams away too and Villa have enough upfront to cause us a few problems with Watkins and Diaby. Could be a tricky test.

Probably making these teams sound better than they are but in comparison to Everton, both Newcastle and West Ham are much better sides. Wasn’t worried at all going into that Everton game as they seriously lack quality.

 

[db10_therza]

I think West Ham and Wolves are tricky games as @Macho pointed out. Newcastle are blowing teams away too and Villa have enough upfront to cause us a few problems with Watkins and Diaby. Could be a tricky test.

Probably making these teams sound better than they are but in comparison to Everton, both Newcastle and West Ham are much better sides. Wasn’t worried at all going into that Everton game as they seriously lack quality.

Wolves were so bad against Pool man

How they didn’t win that game fml

 

[Tir Na Nog]

Forest, Palace and Everton are absolute bankers, Fulham should've been too. Our two more difficult games also happened to be at home one vs an out of sorts United and the other against Sp**s at the start of a new project. Yeah the more I think about it, the more I'd say we had the easier start on paper.

 

[Macho]

We are better than Newcastle and West Ham, but I am unsure if we beat them had we faced them in any of the previous 6 weeks as we haven't quite got our sh*t together.

I don't think you could ask for a better opening set of fixtures than Forest, Palace and Fulham anyways, I was definitely expecting a feast but then we got Partey RB instead

 

[2Smokeyy]

Pretty even I think? Pool might edge it given the recent form of their opponents but not compared to last years league position I think? Either way there’s not much in it.

What’s interesting though is that they are outperforming their xGD by 4 and we’re underperforming it by 0.6.

You’d assume that would come back to the mean a bit but also I dunno about our strikers converting their xG.

Honestly, I think they will be fine. They’ve got enough good options up front even when they’ve looked dead and buried so far this season, one of their attackers always seem to bail them out.

I’d be more worried about their backline if I supported Liverpool as I think VVD is done and the rest around him bar Alisson and Konate are a bit suss.

 

[db10_therza]

I’d be more worried about their backline if I supported Liverpool as I think VVD is done and the rest around him bar Alisson and Konate are a bit suss.

Definitely- they’ve conceded 5 from an xGA of 7 so their defence has been lucky (mainly coz wolves couldn’t finish a butter chicken).

Meanwhile we’ve conceded 6 from an xGA of 5.5. Fs.