Discussion in 'Arsenal Talk' started by carter777, Mar 10, 2020.
woaa thisz a trip yo
beats fckin brexit on the news everyday tho amirite
The Government’s planning on 60% of the population catching it which is about 39M.
The mortality rate based on other countries who’ve done thorough testing rather than just hospital patients is probably around 1% at worst which ends up with 360,000 dying.
That’s an extremely rough estimate but also the death rate percentage could be a lot lower considering the amount of people who aren’t being tested who range from almost asymptomatic to medium flu-like symptoms.
literally a viral pandemic is more palatable than listening to dan hannan
What? It’s all over the place.
Population in UK is around 60 million (if it's UK we're talking about) The figure of 60% is way, way out.
In China they've had 80,000 cases so far with new infections almost halted. That's around 0.005% of the population. Extrapolate that to UK and you get 3,000. A 5% mortality rate would be 150.
Different countries may have some variations, some may be significant. But 1,000,000 deaths in UK is a plain stupid figure.
From red cafe;
The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.
To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.
If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific.
What are we gonna say about him? He doesn't really do anything either way. Even if football was going on we'd have nothing to really say about him.
That hasn't stopped it from being an incredibly active thread and it'll continue to be so
Depends on which WHO expert you listen to. Some are saying 1% for the reasonable assumptions you outlined others are saying closer to 4%
Spoke to a Dr last night about ast night ehre (in Poland). She was making the point the mortality rate is always only a rough estimate as both the numbers of infected and fatalities are always underreported...especially in winter time when hospitals are already creaking at the seams. A lack of resources, equipment and tests are a constant issue while as she rather bluntly put it - old people die.
Unless they were very obviously suffering from heavy flu like symptoms, there isn't the time or capacity to check. In a similar vein, up to 15% of sufferers may require intensive care - which means cancellation of majority of other types of treatments or operations which is likely to lead to additional fatalities.
Fair to say she was also shocked at how slow UK was to react (allowing Cheltenham to go ahead was insanity) but also at how people here in Warsaw seem to go from one extreme (it will never reach here, no worse than a mild cold) to another (line after line of empty shelves in shops and fights over toilet roll).
I'm surprised some here aren't blaming him for it to be honest. Might ready have been pinned on Xhaka though
If the italians managed to get this under a bit more of a control, I can't really see Boris letting the number get that high.
It's political suicide.
Given how he disappeared on holidays during the floods and again at start of the C19 outbreak, nothing would surprise me tbh
I expect we will hear shortly that the coronavirus is actually a secret plan developed by Boris Johnson, perhaps in cahoots with the Rothschilds and international capitalism and.... oh look!!! It's the tooth fairy there chatting with the Loch Ness monster and the abdominal monster!!!
That's why we need those measures to slow it down. You don't need to stockpile food or end all social contacts, just keep an eye on hygiene, avoid big masses, etc.
But aren't the elderly the ones who are going to be hit the most and also part of his constituency?
I guess with Brexit done he won't really care...
Just to get back to the effect of coronavirus on football.
Since the league is clearly not going to be completed this season may I suggest a formula under which there would be play-offs for the title.
These would be played on a knock-out basis between the four most successful teams in domestic trophies in recent years.
Man City, Chelsea, Manu and, of course, Arsenal.
That sounds fair to me does it not?
If they cancel the Euros may well have time finish it. Though am throughly enjoying how Liverpool supporting colleagues are freaking out
Heard that Virus will be reduced by end of May.
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