The Great Squad Cost Thread

[Beksl]

No statistical model is perfect. We dont use them to predict future. We take past data and analyze it. There is a correlation between how much spent is on squad and where team finish. But reality is much more complicated than correlation between two factors.

All models are wrong.

It's not about right or wrong but about how much statistical inference you get.

 

[bingobob]

Not the old league is getting harder excuse. Wenger made continuous top 4 spending like Sunderland ffs. No other manager could have done that. Rogers at Liverpool couldn't maintain top 4 for more than 1 year when the league was 'easier' .

You continually start from the wrong point and draw the wrong conclusion.

The league is harder as the wealth of the league increased. Players move to West Ham and the like because the wage on offer is better than what they'll get elsewhere. Historically this wasn't the case and a lot of these players would be mid table in Spain and we'd have unconditioned technically inept English hatchet men lining up for half the league. The quality of player, coaching and professionalism increased top to bottom (Wenger played a large part in that)

For someone so obsessed with money influencing the game you look at the wrong area. Wages, looking solely at money, is a better barometer of success. We didn't use to say players left us because we got offered a big fee it was because the players got offered wages which out stripped what we could offer at the time.

Not sure what your Rodgers point is about. He was a young manager learning and is better for it and has a team competing at the top end on a budget smaller than our own.

Fwiw and it may be worth little Wenger was a great manager who declined, it happens. When you're at the top the only way is down. And I much prefer that to thinking Wenger was a manager that out performed his squad cost and couldn't handle planes and booing. Wenger has bigger balls than that. He is a man that stood in the stand at Old Trafford, a man that lead us to win trophies at the grounds of bitter rivals. Not only did he handle the hostility, pressure, poison he thrived off it. And I think its shameful to say he couldn't handle fans turning at Arsenal. Wenger deserves better than that opinion. It's a disservice to him, his character, his achievements and legacy.

 

[Makingtrax]

You continually start from the wrong point and draw the wrong conclusion.

The league is harder as the wealth of the league increased. Players move to West Ham and the like because the wage on offer is better than what they'll get elsewhere. Historically this wasn't the case and a lot of these players would be mid table in Spain and we'd have unconditioned technically inept English hatchet men lining up for half the league. The quality of player, coaching and professionalism increased top to bottom (Wenger played a large part in that)

For someone so obsessed with money influencing the game you look at the wrong area. Wages, looking solely at money, is a better barometer of success. We didn't use to say players left us because we got offered a big fee it was because the players got offered wages which out stripped what we could offer at the time.

Not sure what your Rodgers point is about. He was a young manager learning and is better for it and has a team competing at the top end on a budget smaller than our own.

Fwiw and it may be worth little Wenger was a great manager who declined, it happens. When you're at the top the only way is down. And I much prefer that to thinking Wenger was a manager that out performed his squad cost and couldn't handle planes and booing. Wenger has bigger balls than that. He is a man that stood in the stand at Old Trafford, a man that lead us to win trophies at the grounds of bitter rivals. Not only did he handle the hostility, pressure, poison he thrived off it. And I think its shameful to say he couldn't handle fans turning at Arsenal. Wenger deserves better than that opinion. It's a disservice to him, his character, his achievements and legacy.

Rogers is doing better than Arsenal because our manager is a complete novice and worse than useless. He's performing 3 places below his investment position. Rogers performed one place above his, that's all.

And if Wenger declined before 15/16 then show me the evidence. I've asked you this many times, any metric will do, but you can never supply it. You just say it, like its supposed to be true.

 

[Atlas]

Don't really see the argument that the league is tougher now. We've fallen along with the likes of Newcastle and Everton whilst City, Leicester and Sp**s have taken our places.

United and Chelsea for example, aren't anywhere near the sides they where in the mid to late 2000's. The lower half of the table has always been capable of taking points off the top sides as well.

Come off it lad. Compare the league to 08/09 for example. We lost our entire midfield but managed to scrape top 4 because our rivals for 4th were Villa and Everton. Even Arteta would have managed 6th.

 

[AberGooner]

Come off it lad. Compare the league to 08/09 for example. We lost our entire midfield but managed to scrape top 4 because our rivals for 4th were Villa and Everton. Even Arteta would have managed 6th.

Your talking about Moyes Everton? They where a really good side for a number of years, comparable to the current Leicester side in terms of consistency. Villa had a couple of years under O'Neill where they spent big money and if we're being honest bottled top 4 that year. You could say similar to the current West Ham in terms of level but we'll see if they keep up the same form this season to last. So far they look really good.

The only difference is instead of us being the side in that "top 4" City have taken our place. As I said the lower sides have always been capable of taking points off the big clubs, it's always happened. Probably happens a bit more now because the level of the top 4 sides has dropped since the early 2000's, that is indisputable.

 

[Sanchez11]

The only grey area of squad cost for me is overpaying. A decent club usually gets most transfers right, but at Arsenal? Nah

 

[bingobob]

Rogers is doing better than Arsenal because our manager is a complete novice and worse than useless. He's performing 3 places below his investment position. Rogers performed one place above his, that's all.

And if Wenger declined before 15/16 then show me the evidence. I've asked you this many times, any metric will do, but you can never supply it. You just say it, like its supposed to be true.

I've answered that question many many times. Not my fault you don't accept the answers.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

No statistical model is perfect. We dont use them to predict future. We take past data and analyze it. There is a correlation between how much spent is on squad and where team finish. But reality is much more complicated than correlation between two factors.

All models are wrong.

I think your general statement is fine, although trying to use historical data to predict future outcomes is exactly what e.g. predictive modeling tries to do.

Think there is a lot of confusion going on in this thread. Squad cost clearly is an important variable, probably the most important one, where a club finishes in the league table. This is especially true over time and what general area of the table teams tend to end up. But other factors such as randomness, quality of coach, how well you scout, referee bias etc. of course have their impact also.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Fwiw and it may be worth little Wenger was a great manager who declined, it happens. When you're at the top the only way is down. And I much prefer that to thinking Wenger was a manager that out performed his squad cost and couldn't handle planes and booing. Wenger has bigger balls than that. He is a man that stood in the stand at Old Trafford, a man that lead us to win trophies at the grounds of bitter rivals. Not only did he handle the hostility, pressure, poison he thrived off it. And I think its shameful to say he couldn't handle fans turning at Arsenal. Wenger deserves better than that opinion. It's a disservice to him, his character, his achievements and legacy.

Really good point! It hardly is made like this, but would agree with you. Man grew up in a tough time and tough area. Doubt some whining fans from AFTV will have caused him the fold!

 

[Makingtrax]

Really good point! It hardly is made like this, but would agree with you. Man grew up in a tough time and tough area. Doubt some whining fans from AFTV will have caused him the fold!

Let‘s pretend a guy who was publicly insulted, mocked, had big stadium protests against him, coordinated boycotts, planes flying overhead to disrupt the players . . . probably wasn’t affected.

One of the worst trolling post I’ve read on here. Idiot.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Let‘s pretend a guy who was publicly insulted, mocked, had big stadium protests against him, coordinated boycotts, planes flying overhead to disrupt the players . . . probably wasn’t affected.

One of the worst trolling post I’ve read on here. Idiot.

Guess I just have a higher opinion of Wenger than you!

I actually read his autobiography and if that description of himself and his life has any relationship to reality I think he is strong enough to handle.

No need to call names. You are better than that.

 

[Makingtrax]

Guess I just have a higher opinion of Wenger than you!

I actually read his autobiography and if that description of himself and his life has any relationship to reality I think he is strong enough to handle.

No need to call names. You are better than that.

No need to troll, you’re better than that.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

No need to troll, you’re better than that.

Now that was a proper comeback!

Grabbing a coffee! Let’s get ready for Dyche and his leg breakers. Let’s hope for a win and that all the lads get through without injury!

 

[Riou]

Think it was more the kinda unrealistic post stadium move expectations of the fanbase (though Gazidis saying how we could compete with the likes of Bayern, didn't help anyone) that ended Wenger here, more so than the actual protests themselves.

The protests against him were distasteful, but doubt Arsène, Stan and probably even the players were that affected by them.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Think it was more the kinda unrealistic post stadium move expectations of the fanbase (though Gazidis saying how we could compete with the likes of Bayern, didn't help anyone) that ended Wenger here.

The protests against him were distasteful, but doubt Arsène, Stan and probably even the players were that affected by them.

Some of the issue was very much the expectations us as fans had been fed. That we were a top club that should compete for PL and CL titles all the while we did not spend enough to make that happen. Here Wenger's loyalty to the owners really hurt him. He took the flack and stood in front of Kroenke when he tried to deflect from and/or defend the low spend.

In the end the prime culprit in much is Stan Kroenke! Saw him when the Rams played in their new stadium in LA. He looked so smug you couldn't believe. That was where he wanted to be. In a new stadium paid for by tax payers sucking in the bratwurst money!

 

[Blankety Blank]

The only grey area of squad cost for me is overpaying. A decent club usually gets most transfers right, but at Arsenal? Nah

This has more relevance & being able to sell well to generate funds.
No doubt we have been really poor for a number of years & other clubs have overtaken us.
.
I mentioned this on another thread.
At the moment according to transfer markt we are actually 7th in the PL in terms of squad value at £493m virtually level with Leicester tbf but a good way behind 5th place Sp**s who by the same metric have squad value over £600m & miles behind the top 4.

This suggests we should actually finish 6th/7th at the moment.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news/harsh reality

 

[Tom Mix]

These are latest squad values according to Football London this week (doesn't say where they got it from):

Manchester City: £829.5m
Manchester United: £778.7m
Chelsea : £654.0m
Liverpool: £532.5m
Arsenal : £522.3m
Tottenham Hotspur : £365.4m
Everton: £324.8m
Leicester City: £318.8m
Aston Villa: £271.6m
Wolverhampton Wanderers: £254.3m
West Ham United: £232.7m
Newcastle United: £215.1m
Southampton: £171.0m
Brighton & Hove Albion: £156.5m
Crystal Palace: £155.7m
Leeds United: £155.2m
Burnley: £93.6m
Watford: £71.4m
Brentford: £71.3m
Norwich City: £58.8m

 

[A_G]

Sounds like he thinks Curbishley out Squad Costed Wenger

 

[Makingtrax]

Sounds like he thinks Curbishley out Squad Costed Wenger

According to transfermarkt between 91 and 2005 Charlton invested £33.8m on players and for 8 years of that didn’t drop below 14th.

2004 to 2013 Arsenal invested nothing in players, (in fact Wenger made a £24m profit for the club in player sales) and didn’t drop below 4th.

What do you reckon?

 

[Barry]

According to transfermarkt between 91 and 2005 Charlton invested £33.8m on players and for 8 years of that didn’t drop below 14th.

2004 to 2013 Arsenal invested nothing in players, (in fact Wenger made a £24m profit for the club in player sales) and didn’t drop below 4th.

What do you reckon?

Yeah...but...but...but... It's Charlton right? The period that you quoted starts with Wenger having one of the greatest club sides ever in Premier League history (The Invincible's)

It's Arsenal's tragedy that it was dissembled and never quite reached those heights again, despite Wenger's many achievements.

I don't think you can straight squad cost compare between Charlton though. We were selling off players for big bucks during that period because we had assets to begin with. Wenger's obviously a legend compared to Curbishley - no comparison between their respective abilities - but that 8 year run was a big achievement for them.