Away from the horrible torture of the title race I get a nice little break completely unbothered by who wins this. No matter what the score I WILL BE GOING TO BUDAPEST (Maybe not in person but in spirit at least)!
Compared to how Bayern and PSG have been setting all opposition on fire in the other side of the draw this is definitely the B-list semi-final. Still though, you don't win a trophy for looking impressive in the quarter finals and there is a very real chance that one of these two could be lifting the big trophy come May 30th.
In terms of injuries there's still nothing concrete on Timber which is alarming and this is assuming that Eze and Calafiori are actually fine and Zubimendi has recovered from his illness.
Havertz I think would be unlikely to play so it'll be a big game for Gyokeres. I like this line-up because it covers for his limitations with Eze, Ødegaard and Saka picking up the playmaking burden.
I would say though that we CANNOT have a Martinelli - Gyok - Noni front three on the field if we want to have any control. With Havertz it's ok because he can bring them into play but without him it all falls apart. So maybe it is worth only starting one of Saka or Eze and swapping them to play alongside a chuckle brother on the other flank. Trossard could be an option as well.
Lot of decisions to make here with a few half fit players for Arteta, I would hope that he's brave and is willing to give wildcards like MLS and Dowman time who will be a lot fresher than some of the others.
Atletico Madrid - The Good
Ughhhhhh.
Whereas Simeone has always had a reputation for dour and controlled football but this year it's totally changed.
In attack, he's shown far more willingness to get numbers forward, there is a reason for that but for now you can imagine it like the below:
So it's not a perfect representation with the numbers but ignore that. He has pivoted away from the classic haramball four central midfielders moving vertically as a unit and only pressing near the sideline in their half.
He has evolved with the times and now uses Griezmann or Alvarez (take the number 7 in that picture) as hinges. Le Normand or Lenglet who are ball playing CBs will fire the ball in quickly to the number 7 in Zone 14 - where he will be the key man. Ideally it'll catch the opposition in a panic and he's got time to turn and play it out to Lookman (10) or Simeone (11) with Ruggeri (3) bombing on as an overlap. Then Lookman or Simeone can maybe cut in and threaten the goal but more likely they'll work it for Sorloth through a cross. In three passes you can almost unlock any side.
Now this can look incredible when it works, also with this pace they can really hit well on the counter-attack by looking to play it into Griezmann or Alvarez and with a lot of runners bombing on they have managed to catch a lot of teams cold this season. Against Arsenal there will have to be a bigger emphasis on Rice or Zubimendi sticking with Alvarez or Griez when they drop into the 10 position because if a CB follows them that will leave them 1 v 1 against Sorloth. They have to stop that pass getting into Zone 14 with time to turn.
The Bad
Now this is a very cavalier way to attack which has brought out the best of Lookman and Griezmann. However there is a reason they play like this, firstly the back line is woeful. Molina and Ruggeri are woeful defensively and both LCB options (Le Normand and Lenglet) whilst great on the ball are painfully slow and panicky. I like Pubill a lot at RCB when he covers for the often injured Gimenez but he's firefighting a lot as even mediocre teams can cut through the backline with ease so the emphasis this year has been on trying to outscore teams.
The other issue is midfield. Simeone still plays a nominal 4-4-1-1 but as I've said previously they've sacrificed control by scrapping four CMs in midfield with the inclusion of wing players. This has placed a gigantic burden on Koke (washed), Llorente (also plays at RB because Molina couldn't mark a parked car) but crucially Pablo Barrios (my player of the season and someone I think should be starting for Spain next to Rodri and Pedri).
The other issue this causes is in the press. This year you can often see a high Atletico press but it's nowhere near as ferocious as Arsenal will have faced from Bournemouth or City in recent weeks. This is because they are desperate not to have Koke or the LCB isolated in 1 v 1s. What they do out of possession is man everyone up from an attacking stand point but crucially will tend to leave the full backs and two midfielders at home.
The goals against Tottenham weren't really good presses, it was just Kinsky folded under almost no pressure and coughed the ball up twice when he had time to get rid.
The Ugly
Goalkeeping stands out. Oblak was the perfect Simeone keeper for a decade plus because there wasn't a high burden on his footwork. Times change and tactics change which has left Oblak almost as yesterday's man with this new expansive set up and for the first time in over 10 years he was back on the bench.
Enter Juan Musso.
On the scale of back ups he's a rich man's Kepa. Good enough to start for most teams and very good with his feet. The downside are his box presence and shot stopping which resulted in an absolute car crash of a performance in the Copa del Rey final giving away a penalty.
So Oblak returns on the weekend.
Unfortunately though they still conceded two goals which brings me to the other car crash... set pieces. I have never seen a Simeone team this awful at dealing with aerial crosses or corners. If Saka and Rice both play I foresee a long day for whatever back line they put out. Also, whichever keeper plays, Arsenal can truly use that to their advantage as it's a serious weakness.
Finally as with Arsenal injuries are killing the team. Barrios who I previously mentioned as the star midfielder is unfortunately made of glass and suffered a muscular injury on Saturday. So the injury list looks like:
Barrios (out)
Alvarez (doubt)
Lookman (doubt)
Gimenez (doubt)
Hancko (doubt)
That is the four most crucial players out and honestly could prove to be fatal. Impetus for Arteta has to be to win on the night because that is a golden opportunity.
If all the names mentioned above miss this, then I think that this will be the team but he might play Cardoso or Mendoza in midfield then move Llorente to right back if he wants to play safer as well as potentially starting Almada/Gonzalez on the left over Baena.
