Vincent Janssen

[Juan Matas Beard]

Where's Marcus and Mike to make sense of this?

Love this.

 

[spartandre217]

What about the level of the premier league?

Leicester signed some no namers from France league to survive relegation, they destroyed the league. West Ham signed some 28 year old who no one ever heard of before that made the team of the season. Tottenham have fish as their striker scoring for fun last two years. At Arsenal there is model scoring 20 goals each season. This league does nothing in Europe.

Harry Kane's after his first half season were world class already... Just like anyone can look at Kelechi Iheanacho's production this season and say that while there will be some drop off he is as close to guaranteed world class as it's likely to get.

Dimitri Payet's numbers *before* joining west ham were among the best as a creative player in Europe for 2 years before the move. His injuries, age and risk put teams off. He was far from a no namer.

Those no namers they signed from France you speak of?? Mahrez for example has performed at the exact same level bar conversion for the last 2 years at Leicester and quite possibly before then too.

I don't know enough about Kante to make any comments there but it wouldn't shock me if the advanced stats didn't back up his current performance levels.

Clubs keep all the advanced analytics stuff behind closed doors because it's a competitive advantage but don't fool yourself into believing that it's not in use. Shoot Fat Sam built his career on analytics use but it's not exactly a popular story I guess.

 

[spartandre217]

Do you study/work in sport analytics?

Nah, I'm study genetics/genomics/systems biology but a lot of the statistics, math, machine learning and computer stuff translates well to sports analytics. I also read a lot

Most of the people doing analytics stuff are economists, statisticians, computational biology folks or former bookies with a love for sports. Oddly enough they're often AFC fans


Do some dabbling in the sports analytics stuff to entertain myself from time to time but don't have all of the advanced data I'd want to do anything particularly interesting, yet. If/when I do I'll probably post stuff here.

 

[razörist]

Dutch players will have to move to a better league, make their name and then look to the Premier League.

Like Van Dijk, went to Scotland and made his name.

Van Dijk isn't all that, but you will see that in the coming season, I bet. Ha a very experienced partner, class goal keeper behind him and Southampton's midfield is all about protection. He would be roasted at any top club. Also what's going to Celtic where his team is 27 times better than any other team do for a young player? Easy league and destroyed in Europe, big whoop.

 

[Trilly]

Nah, I'm study genetics/genomics/systems biology but a lot of the statistics, math, machine learning and computer stuff translates well to sports analytics. I also read a lot

Most of the people doing analytics stuff are economists, statisticians, computational biology folks or former bookies with a love for sports. Oddly enough they're often AFC fans


Do some dabbling in the sports analytics stuff to entertain myself from time to time but don't have all of the advanced data I'd want to do anything particularly interesting, yet. If/when I do I'll probably post stuff here.

I did engineering at uni so I've dabbled in a bit of statistics. I've wanted to do some statistical work in my own time I just can't be bothered to start.

Look forward to it if you do get around to doing something.

 

[Gooner Zig]

You can absolutely gain insight and do first pass elimination of prospects using advanced stats. (Not shallow things like pass completion, goals, assists etc)

I don't know enough about him or the eredivisie to make any judgements but if we do take him it's definitely a StatDNA signing. Just like Elneny was.

Way I see it, if he's generating a high number of shots with high xG values, is overperforming league-strength adjusted xG by a reasonable amount (5-10%), isn't dispossessed often and plays in a team with a similar system as us then I'm fine with it.
Would also be nice if he wasn't as dependent on service as Giroud and didn't get too many goals from glaring defensive errors.

The way "stats" has been used in the past was primarily in a very shallow fashion with little to no focus on context, machine learning or big data. That has since changed and there's a lot more to be gained from it than ever before but it is far far from the be all end all and hopefully will never be.

We really should stop using stats.

 

[4R5Emaniac]

Speaking of Kante and his stats, when his move to Leicester was done there was an article of statistical analysis of his season for the club he was playing for. Most tackles and most interceptions in the league.

I had seen Payet play myself and he was already really good so was shocked when he moved to West Ham.

 

[Heisenberg]

We really should stop using stats.

Obviously. And stop all other methods technology provide. Come on.

 

[clockwork orange]

Dutch players will have to move to a better league, make their name and then look to the Premier League.

Like Van Dijk, went to Scotland and made his name.

?

The only thing the SPL is better at as the Dutch league is that is more closely followed on the British Isles.

 

[Dutch D]

Not close to Arsenal level yet, definitely a prospect to keep an eye on in general but not necessarily for Arsenal, time will have to tell. Would be a hugely underwhelming signing.

 

[Doom]

Following on from spartandre217's fine series of post on stats I would like to chip in.

I've always been intrigued by how Arsenal under Wenger recruit new players.

Wenger's lack of transfer activity gets a fair amount of criticism which if set out systematically can be reduced to:

Wenger is indifferent and buys no one because he doesn't care
and/or
Wenger is incompetent and buys no one because he's a cretin.

For reasons that need not be entered into at this juncture I would disagree with that assessment and believe rather that Wenger is careful and buys if he believes a player has value.

Iff I am right, then the question is then how does Wenger value a player, bearing in mind he has direct knowledge of the senior squad, reserves, players on loan and scouting information on players at other clubs.

I think the stats, which as spartandre217 points out, we have access to only the most shallow and superficial, and, more importantly, the analytics, which we have no access to, are relied on heavily by Wenger in forming his opinions about players.

In January 2015 after Arsenal signed Gabriel, Wenger discussed the importance of stats and scouting in this article.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jan/30/Arsène-wenger-gabriel-paulista-signing

I also think it is interesting that Gavidis made a comment in an interview last year that of all their recent signings only Podolski was an out and out flop.

I can only assume that Wenger is using the stats to weigh up the players he has compared to what is out there and making bids accordingly. The approach insulates the club from rash signings, albeit at the price of appearing to not care about improving the squad.

Frustrating as the transfer policy is, it should probably count in Wenger's favour that the transfer policy that the fans advocate is similar to Liverpool's and they, in my opinion, have a worse squad than us.

 

[eye4goal]

I don't know enough about him or the eredivisie to make any judgements but if we do take him it's definitely a StatDNA signing. Just like Elneny was.

Way I see it, if he's generating a high number of shots with high xG values, is overperforming league-strength adjusted xG by a reasonable amount (5-10%), isn't dispossessed often and plays in a team with a similar system as us then I'm fine with it.

You think the stats/analytics would have predicted what happened with Vardy scoring 20 plus league goals this season? or Kane suddenly turning into an elite finisher. We probably need to find someone who can step up similarly. It could be this guy, Alcacer or Lacazette etc. Maybe we're not as good in this area as clubs like Leicester are.

 

[Trilly]

I reckon stat DNA provides a list of all players who are performing very well statistically. For example there's no way the likes of Messi, Neymar etc don't show up under the criteria that whoever does the searching uses.

The problem is that of his list of results I believe Wenger then decides to go for the option with the best 'value' - maybe this value option is a filter on StatDNA.

Therein lies the problem.

 

[say yes]

Should be signed in addition to a top CF.

 

[Malky]

Van Dijk isn't all that, but you will see that in the coming season, I bet. Ha a very experienced partner, class goal keeper behind him and Southampton's midfield is all about protection. He would be roasted at any top club. Also what's going to Celtic where his team is 27 times better than any other team do for a young player? Easy league and destroyed in Europe, big whoop.

This is why I don't get the hype around Van Dijk.
I watched Celtic a few times against Kilmarnock, Motherwell and Aberdeen, games that stood out where he looked bang average. Every CB has poor performances but considering the standard he was up against he should not of looked as poor as he did. As an example, Koscielny could go to the SPL, have an absolute nightmare of a game and still be head and shoulders above everyone he's up against. Even Gabriel, if went there he'd be seen as a dominant CB.

Edit: on topic, I don't want Janssen either.

 

[razörist]

This is why I don't get the hype around Van Dijk.
I watched Celtic a few times against Kilmarnock, Motherwell and Aberdeen, games that stood out where he looked bang average. Every CB has poor performances but considering the standard he was up against he should not of looked as poor as he did. As an example, Koscielny could go to the SPL, have an absolute nightmare of a game and still be head and shoulders above everyone he's up against. Even Gabriel, if went there he'd be seen as a dominant CB.

Edit: on topic, I don't want Janssen either.

What hype? Its only AM that thinks he's any good, only because we make him look good twice a year. This is a defender that could not get in the worst Dutch national team in living memory for years.

 

[Gooner Zig]

Obviously. And stop all other methods technology provide. Come on.

xG is full of ****. I remember Wenger banging on about it when Theo and Giroud's scoring dried up

 

[Heisenberg]

xG is full of ****. I remember Wenger banging on about it when Theo and Giroud's scoring dried up

I am not 100% into the different statistical football measures, and I recall Wenger saying something recently that got me thinking.

He said: "Last season we scored 114 per cent of our expected goals. This year we've scored 50 per cent, or 55 per cent."

Someone explain how it is possible to obtain a ratio above 1 in a such measure? In my mind, it does not make sense. You have X number of expected goal chances, either you score or you miss. If we score a goal which is not an expected goal chance, shouldn't it be omitted from the goal statistics? On other words, the ratio is between 0 and 1.

 

[BBF]

Van Dijk's the perfect stat player but when you watch him in real life he looks like a ****house

 

[Gooner Zig]

FWIW - Arseblog had a stats guy on Arsecast...damn I can't remember his name but heavily involved in football statistics and was bigging up StatsDNA as one of the best in the business.

Not that it means much, as if he was going to trash them on a heavily pro Arsenal podcast.