Wenger: the red myths descend

[Makingtrax]

No disagreement there. If we find some sort of tactical mastermind, which is very difficult, it is possible to get some advantage there but only to a certain point. In the end, we'll have to start spending a lot more while still keep the quality control in tact (this is where Wenger shines imo) . Even with increased spending we can't afford to buy too many busts and we still need to keep finding our Koscielnys and Cazorlas (obviously relative to the current market).

As for post-Wenger era, what I'm really saying is, I think we can find a manager who is more sharp and refined tactically than Wenger but can we find one who is on par with Wenger with all the other stuff? That is going to be very difficult.

Top post.

 

[Makingtrax]

Because they have probably spent less than Arsenal in the last 5 years and have actually got promoted, won a PL and got to the UCL quarterfinals.

Yes, but think about this. Take a five year period, look at their average spend, look at their average finishing position . . . you'll find they'll match fairly well.

 

[Makingtrax]

Chelsea have just taken a free kick. Half of the outfield players are facing the wrong way. If anyone thinks this is an isolated incident please reply. I've seen this countless times from us over the last few seasons. Mostly when the other team takes a quick short corner. Put that in yer stats

As I understand it we are very good at not conceding from set pieces. If you know different, post the stats.

 

[freeglennhelder2]

As I understand it we are very good at not conceding from set pieces. If you know different, post the stats.

My point is that a team with players facing the wrong way is not embracing the discipline of defending. To get caught out once is understandable, to get caught out multiple times in the same game is negligent. To get caught out across multiple players and seasons is symptomatic of an institutional deficiency.

 

[Makingtrax]

Thanks for the reply, but you haven't actually adressed the methodological issues I raised. I understand your reasoning, but still hold that a fruitful debate can't follow unless you clarify your position and address the issues raised. Otherwise it'll just be people talking past each other, as you have been for the past few pages.

Take the bolded for example. Your reasoning there implies that you think the most expensive squad will be the best defensively, the second most expensive second best etc. etc. That, however, most crucially demands a definition of exactly what constitutes a 'good defence'. Once that is defined you need to work out the parameters and determine which statistics can be used to measure it. Simply using goal conceded and clean sheets suffers from the various methodological issues outlined above.

To be fair, I don't actually expect you to address the methodological issues, merely to acknowledge them. As I argued above, to get even a vague approximation of an 'objective' standard of 'defensive solidity' one would require access to advanced statistics and even then you'd face a myriad of methodological problems. Unless you want to spunk a few thousand quid on Opta, that data won't be forthcoming.

However, while I don't think your methodology is valid I do think the question you raised is valid. I think using xGA might give a slightly better approximation of defensive solidity, because it takes in at least some of the nuances your model excludes. That said, I don't consider it a reliable indicator either and wouldn't draw strong conclusions from it. As I recall, xGA depends, for example, on shots being taken. It is, however, entirely possible to be defensively poor or making a defensive error without the opposition getting a shot off. That wouldn't show up in the xGA, nor would various other issues raised in this thread.

Anyway, here's the xGA data:

From best to worst:
Chelsea - 121,98
City - 122,37
United - 138
Liverpool 136,64
Arsenal - 143,53
Sp**s - 146,32

Note: Liverpool's average place in the xGA table is obviously 4, not 16. That's an error.
Note #2: Keep in mind that the other teams under consideration have changed managers in the period under discussion, which skews the data in various ways and makes any comparisons more complicated and less accurate.

Conclusion: It's really damn complicated to measure defensive solidity through statistics. We here certainly don't have the means for it and can only arrive at the vaguest approximation through use of such things as xGA. Take it all with a big pinch of salt, acknowledge the limitations of stats, use your eyes and don't pretend like either the eye-test or statistics are perfect and can overrule the other.

In my opinion, using xGA combined with the good old-fashioned eye-test is the best we can do right to judge how good a side is defensively. The eye would at least pick up some of the nuances that the xGA misses. Is Wenger a good defensive manager? The stats tell me not really and my eyes tell me he's usually not, but on occasion he can be a great one.

You raise some interesting points here.

There's b*gger all difference between Sp**s, Arsenal, Liverpool and United on xGa 138 to 146 is only around about a 5% variation, so on expected goals against, from Opta stats, there isn't much in it. Hardly shows Wenger to be poor. And he definitely isn't on real goals against.

Of course chance is the main difference between xG and real goals. In theory a player can carve a superb opening and slip over as he's about to strike into an open net. As you're a student of football data, here's one of the best articles I've read on chance in football. A real eye opener.

https://engineering.footballradar.com/does-the-league-table-lie/

Saw Alistair Tweedle's article in the Telegraph in November 16th on xG. Arsenal had an xG of 20 and had scored 19 goals (close) and an xGa of 13 goals but had let 16. Liverpools were very similar xG of 21 and had scored 21, xGa of 13 and had let in 17. Two very similar patterns, Wenger and Klopp 2 peas in a pod.

United's though, xG of 19 scored 23, xGa of 11 and had let in just 9. No doubt Mourinho's been luckier than Klopp and Wenger. And Wenger's unlucky penalty decisions have made things worse since.

Really not keen on what people see by eye. And freeze frames are worse. Show a freeze frame of any team about to concede a goal and there's usually total disarray.

Your conclusion that's it's difficult to show defensive solidity accurately in stats is probably right. But I still think that a manager that's clueless, like posters on here pretend Wenger is, would be exposed by them.

 

[Makingtrax]

My point is that a team with players facing the wrong way is not embracing the discipline of defending. To get caught out once is understandable, to get caught out multiple times in the same game is negligent. To get caught out across multiple players and seasons is symptomatic of an institutional deficiency.

You say that, but since Klopp arrived Liverpool have conceded 27 goals from set pieces, we've only conceded 16, less than City and United. In fact the only team in the league better than us is Chelsea on 15.

 

[redanddread]

Well let me ask you one question, and answer it straight. If you weren't an Arsenal supporter, and didn't know much about football, but understood the relationship between wealth and winning, what would you say if I told you a manager had been struggling for cash for much of his tenure due to a stadium build, but in the last 5 years had reached up to be the 4th or 5th richest team . . . but throughout his whole 21 years in charge his average finishing position was 2.8?

I'd say it's impossible to finish in 2.8th position.

 

[Makingtrax]

I'd say it's impossible to finish in 2.8th position.

OK bro, let's leave it at that.

 

[redanddread]

You say that, but since Klopp arrived Liverpool have conceded 27 goals from set pieces, we've only conceded 16, less than City and United. In fact the only team in the league better than us is Chelsea on 15.

We're actually not that bad from set pieces in recent years even though in certain games we've conceded from set pieces when under pressure. Trouble with Arsène's teams is that once you fix one part another part breaks. You never feel that the unit is functioning properly & balanced. Apply pressure to one spot & eventually a hole appears. A balanced team has not been seen at the Emirates for many a year.

 

[freeglennhelder2]

You say that, but since Klopp arrived Liverpool have conceded 27 goals from set pieces, we've only conceded 16, less than City and United. In fact the only team in the league better than us is Chelsea on 15.

I’m not talking about Klopp or set pieces. Im talking about the defensive indiscipline that I have highlighted. Do you think it’s acceptable?

I want more from the Arsenal players. It doesn’t cost anything to be switched on and alive to danger.

It’s almost as if they see the attacking side of the game is an artful craft and defensive side as a chore to be performed in a perfunctory manner.

Defending is an art.

 

[James Bond]

Former Arsenal centre-back Sebastien Squillaci believes that Arsène Wenger’s near gung-ho attitude to attack makes life difficult for centre-backs at the club.

Squillaci, a French title winner with an impressive reputation when he arrived at the Emirates in 2010, endured a horrendous spell at Arsenal, making 22 Premier League starts in his first season but just one in the following two campaigns.

Having returned to Ligue 1 side Bastia in 2013 Squillaci, 35, enjoyed something of a renaissance and believes that his struggles at Arsenal were no surprise because of Wenger’s philosophy.

“It’s true a lot was expected from me when I arrived,” he told beIN Sports. “But it’s always been difficult for central defenders at Arsenal.

“You can see that from before my time and after my time. The style of play was a bit like Spain’s. It was very open, and often we found ourselves defending in the middle one on one with the opposition attackers. It was never easy. It was very attacking. But that was the club’s philosophy.

“I talked about it with coach Wenger. He told me, ‘I know it’s difficult, but I want us to play like this, I want the attacking players to have more freedom and less defensive work’.”

Since a 2-0 victory away to Manchester City in early 2015 Wenger has shown a willingness to set out his stall more defensively and has recently employed a two-man screen of Francis Coquelin and Mohamed Elneny in front of his defence.

There still remain times when Arsenal’s defence falls apart, they have conceded three goals in a match on eight occasions this season, but Squillaci is convinced there has been a change in the way his former side defend.

“I think it’s changed in the last year,” he said. “I’ve seen matches where Arsenal have had ten men in their own half.

“That didn’t exist at my time. When I see the defensive work Giroud does… the midfielders too, I think Arsenal defend a lot more these days. And I think that’s a good thing because to win games at the highest level, to win in the Champions League, you need that.”

https://www.standard.co.uk/sport/fo...ays-former-centreback-squillaci-a3226121.html

 

[BigPoppaPump]

No team has ever improved every season. What nonsense is that theory. All teams go in cycles, stable manager or not.

The stats aren't disingenuous, they're not a person. And our last league finish was 75 points. 0.6 below our 21 year average. So how has it gotten worse.

The level of posting on here is rock bottom

I said theoretically, of course teams aren't going to improve every season. But us having the same manager should be an advantage since we can buy the players he wants and don't have to go through transition periods.

If it hasn't gotten worse why did we go from 2nd to 5th? The stats aren't disingenuous the way you use them are.

 

[Masterdon]

Well let me ask you one question, and answer it straight. If you weren't an Arsenal supporter, and didn't know much about football, but understood the relationship between wealth and winning, what would you say if I told you a manager had been struggling for cash for much of his tenure due to a stadium build, but in the last 5 years had reached up to be the 4th or 5th richest team . . . but throughout his whole 21 years in charge his average finishing position was 2.8?

Well the first 8 of those 21 years he was in a 2 horse race with Fergie. Might want to factor that in your 2.8.

Why don’t you show us his average finish from
when Mourinho and Benitez arrived in the league? Surely that’s more relevant because that’s when we built the stadium and the EPL stopped being a 2 horse race.

 

[Toast]

Well the first 8 of those 21 years he was in a 2 horse race with Fergie. Might want to factor that in your 2.8.

Why don’t you show us his average finish from
when Mourinho and Benitez arrived in the league? Surely that’s more relevant because that’s when we built the stadium and the EPL stopped being a 2 horse race.

It's 3.57. 3.5 since Özil arrived.

 

[Makingtrax]

Well the first 8 of those 21 years he was in a 2 horse race with Fergie. Might want to factor that in your 2.8.

Why don’t you show us his average finish from
when Mourinho and Benitez arrived in the league? Surely that’s more relevant because that’s when we built the stadium and the EPL stopped being a 2 horse race.

I've already posted it. It's 3.5 over the period of the opening post. It's got nothing to do with Mourinho or Benitez (Benitez? ffs) it's to do with the ludicrous amount of money spent by oil clubs and United.

 

[Makingtrax]

I said theoretically, of course teams aren't going to improve every season. But us having the same manager should be an advantage since we can buy the players he wants and don't have to go through transition periods

Even theoretically, no team team can keep on improving.

Having the same manager is not an advantage when he can't buy the players he wants, like Pep can.

Yeah, I usually like your posts, sorry bro.

 

[Makingtrax]

I’m not talking about Klopp or set pieces. Im talking about the defensive indiscipline that I have highlighted. Do you think it’s acceptable?

I want more from the Arsenal players. It doesn’t cost anything to be switched on and alive to danger.

It’s almost as if they see the attacking side of the game is an artful craft and defensive side as a chore to be performed in a perfunctory manner.

Defending is an art.

Your original posts was about set pieces, go back and read it.

This is the whole point of this thread. I'm asking posters like you a question. With your freeze frames and posts about how switched off we are, why are we 2.8th for clean sheets and 3.4th for goals against? Shouldn't we be a lot worse?

 

[BigPoppaPump]

Even theoretically, no team team can keep on improving.

Having the same manager is not an advantage when he can't buy the players he wants, like Pep can.

Yeah, I usually like your posts, sorry bro.

No problem, I deleted that last bit anyway. No need to be petty lmao.

I agree no team can keep on improving you can only reach a certain level before you drop off and the only way to stay at a top level is to spend loads (which even if you look at Man U isn't always the way).

I dunno if you can say Arsène doesn't get the players he wants cos we'll never know who he wants. But I assume most players we scout are being scouted by teams much richer than us and we don't even bother to pursue anymore. Which leads us to signing guys like Xhaka and Kolasiniac who are good but probably weren't gong to go to clubs bigger than Arsenal.

It would be interested if we went back to the days of youth players, if you look at Liverpool and Monaco nowadays the rich teams will spend stupid money on players and we can actually spend it now. We've never been as good as Liverpool when it comes to getting huge money for players but now there's too much money for us not too now.

 

[Makingtrax]

No problem, I deleted that last bit anyway. No need to be petty lmao.

I agree no team can keep on improving you can only reach a certain level before you drop off and the only way to stay at a top level is to spend loads (which even if you look at Man U isn't always the way).

I dunno if you can say Arséne doesn't get the players he wants cos we'll never know who he wants. But I assume most players we scout are being scouted by teams much richer than us and we don't even bother to pursue anymore. Which leads us to signing guys like Xhaka and Kolasiniac who are good but probably weren't gong to go to clubs bigger than Arsenal.

It would be interested if we went back to the days of youth players, if you look at Liverpool and Monaco nowadays the rich teams will spend stupid money on players and we can actually spend it now. We've never been as good as Liverpool when it comes to getting huge money for players but now there's too much money for us not too now.

That's why I think our new manager will have some scrap on his hands to stay in the top 4.

Yeah, Liverpool got a mint for Suarez and it looks like £140m for Coutinho. They'll be able to strengthen a few remaining positions . . certainly a top keeper.

 

[redanddread]

That's why I think our new manager will have some scrap on his hands to stay in the top 4.

Yeah, Liverpool got a mint for Suarez and it looks like £140m for Coutinho. They'll be able to strengthen a few remaining positions . . certainly a top keeper.

We're not in it bro.........