What's our realistic transfer net spend this summer?

[ArsenesNO1Fan]

The Puma and Emirates deals make us 50million a year better off starting this year. Seemingly that made us powerful in the market last summer smashing our transfer record at 42million. However our net spend was still only 32million. The Champion's League I've read brings in more revenue too, so surely we have more money to spend.

On the other hand we've offered numerous new contracts, all increasing our operating cost or wage bill.

We need to ask what are our boards objectives? Minimum top 4 seems to have been the target. I personally believe profitability and dividends have been Kroenke's objectives. And if we look at the finances from our financial reports I think this bares that out.

Debt Finances 2013

Cash 153.5
Debt (246.7)
Net Debt (93.2)

Debt Finances 2011

Cash 160.2
Debt (258.0)
Net Debt (97.8)

Now let's look at gross profit in that period:

2011 14.8m
2012 36.6m
2013 6.7m

If the cash reserves falls while gross profits increase then profits must be taken out as dividends. Surely?

So does Kroenke give us the go ahead to spend the extra 50m or will he look to demand higher profit margins?

Prior to the extra revenue we were barely breaking even unless we sold players.

From looking over the financials of prior budgets and looking at our increased revenue I doubt we will spend more than 40m net spend after player sales. This board is too profit focused to allow us to go over

Sorry guys, but I don't see any 100m budgets, the best I think we can hope for is 2-3 bargains totalling 20m and 1 big purchase of say 30-40m so say a 60m total spend while 1-2 players are sold to bring the net down to 40m.

 

[Iceman10]

The underlying financials on the books are what they are and we could very easily absorb a net spend of £100m this summer, compensating if required over the next two transfer windows because the need for more additions is less once gaps have been plugged. In reality such a compensation isn't really required, we can blitz one transfer window using some of the cash reserves we've accumulated, there are considerable revenues now season upon season via. commercial sponsorships + gate revenues + TV revenues. Success on the pitch would increase merchandise sales (nationally and globally) and that is important to also consider.

That's what we can very easily do. I'm not going to make any prediction because what happens happens, as we know summer windows can be infuriating and it's no point allowing oneself to be put through the emotional wringer by getting any hopes up.

 

[Caz19]

It's quite simple really.

Let's assume in every season pre 2013 we were breaking even financially every season (though in fact we were probably making a profit most seasons, but that's another matter), this season we can spend far more then before and still break even again.

Our new deal with Puma coming into play this summer (22 million increase on previous deal with nike) combined with the new deal we signed with Emirates in 2013 (25 million boost on the previous one) the new TV rights deal (Not to sure about the exact amount for finishing 4th, but rumor has it that the team which wins the league gets over 100 million now compared to 60 million before, i'd assume that for finishing 4th you get at least a 20 million boost compared to previous seasons) in addition to the fact that as of last summer we've effectively finished paying our loans for the stadium, means we have quite a bit of money.


Obviously we need to take into consideration our expenses have gone up a lot due to many first team players getting a big boost (namely Cazorla,Koscielny,Mertesacker,Ramsey etc...) but this is slighty offset by the departures of Fabianski,Bendtner,Park and possibly Sagna.

I still reckon Wenger could easily spend 70-80 million this summer,whether he'll spend it or not is another story, we all know his ideology of wanting to bring through youngsters and such.

 

[Hunta]

Speaking after completing his medical in Germany, Özil said: “I am thrilled to be joining a club of the stature of Arsenal and am looking forward to playing in the Premier League. It will be great for my own personal development as a player and I am particularly looking forward to working with Arsène Wenger.
“From our negotiations it is clear the Club has huge ambition and I look forward to being part of an exciting future.”

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archive/german-international-Özil-joins-arsenal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.arsenal.com/news/news-archiv ... ns-arsenal</a>

Wenger knows he has to spend big in the summer if only to stay in the top four due to how competitive the PL has become, I think you can expect us to spend anything between £60-100M this summer before sales I really do.

 

[amirkat]

Think you're being even generous with the net 40 million, OP. Reckon it'll be about 30 million consisting of one £20-30 million player and the rest bargains.

 

[ArseGod]

I'm gonna go middle of the road and say net sixty million spent

 

[Suave Gooner89]

I'm no soothsayer but I'd say in the £45 million range.

 

[fabo]

I'd say we'll spend max 50m, maybe less. Net spend depends on the likes of Vermaelen leaving, which I hope doesn't happen.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

Sagna Replacement quality midfielder and quality striker need at least 50M to spend we should have no problem to spend that to be honest.

 

[DJ_Markstar]

I'm willing to bet that our transfer spend is:

money coming in - money going out.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[GDeep™]

Our net spend will be about 30M, im rarely wrong.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

Hope our transfer market not begin in last week of august, we need to do our business early July.

 

[MrBump]

With the new Puma and Emirates deal, we should have close to an extra 50m to spend each year. But that also has to include wages, which are and will be ever increasing, especially if we want to keep our stars.
That's a fairly simplistic view as everything else, gate/CL/tv/other endorsements are the same.

I would say if no one of top top quality falls into AWs lap (Özil) we will be spending no more than 25-30m net.
The only guys that could be sold are podolski and Vermalaen and they won't go for much relative to who we have to bring in.

Remember we still have a qualifier for CL to win, and they won't risk signing players before we have that 30m guaranteed.
We've seen this happen every single year we've finished fourth.
We are reactive not proactive.

 

[Iceman10]

I'm willing to bet that our transfer spend is:

money coming in - money going out.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

[MrBump]

I would say we've just come out of stage1 of our plan. Keep in the four while we spend as little as possible and profiting from player sales while surviving on the current/old commercial deals.

Stage 2 might be to secure and increase those new deals. Less reliant on player sales, better capacity to re sign our better players while looking out for more established players yet not going for worlds best (Özil exception as I believed AW lucked out) and being able to atleast really push the contenders. This stage may last for another 5 years until we can better negotiate again our commercial deals and be seen as a real contender.

Stage 3 equals a world super club where we are able to attract and pay for close to whoever we want.

 

[dka1]

Hmm Im sure we have a fairly healthy budget, though like Iceman said, I think if we went crazy spending £100m net it would erode alot of the cash reserves (and obviously we need to keep a minimum amount of cash), so it would leave us not being able to spend alot in future windows.

I think we'll probably spend something like 40m net, we don't actually need alot of players provided Vermaelen stays (which I hope he does).

A RB, DM, ST and backup goalie, would plug the major holes, and perhaps a winger if there is sufficient cash left.

If we really wanted to be smart we could flip Giroud for around 8-10m and get in Drmic for 2.5-3m making a profit, before obviously acquiring a very good striker.

 

[Anzac]

How long is a piece of string, and where do the scissors come into it?

 

[Rain Dance]

I'm willing to bet that our transfer spend is:

money coming in - money going out.

Hopefully I'm wrong.

I think that looks like a good bet

 

[DJ_Markstar]

I didn't mean it like that. ops:

I meant that we'll likely only spend what is generated via 'new' deals, so whatever that figure is will be our net spend. I can't see us ever actually losing money investing in the squad, sadly.

 

[DJ_Markstar]

How long is a piece of string, and where do the scissors come into it?

And is it a South American style pair of scissors, or more the quasi Dutch scissor formation of '92?