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Arsenal will go into the FA Cup final against Chelsea as underdogs, but the switch to three at the back could give them a fighting chance. The Gunners have looked a lot more solid since the switch, and could have earned far more points had Arsene Wenger made the change earlier in the campaign.
Switching to a back three was the catalyst for Chelsea’s title charge. They were demolished at The Emirates back in September, when Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez tore them apart time and time again. Chelsea were written off and Arsenal were touted as the genuine article, title contenders for the first time in years. But Conte switched to three at the back and his team went on a 13-game winning run and never let the lead slip, winning the Premiership with games to spare, while Arsenal floundered badly. The Gunners have lost nine league games and were abysmal in Europe, with a particular lowlight being the 3-1 defeat they suffered at Stamford Bridge, when Eden Hazard cut through the shaky defence time and time again.
So it is 1-1 in the head-to-head between Arsenal and Chelsea this season, with both winning comfortably at home. Now that they are meeting on neutral turf and have an identical formation, it could be a lot closer than the bookmakers are anticipating. A review of the lines on Heritage Sports shows Chelsea are clear favourites and Arsenal are out near the 3/1 mark. It is understandable, as Chelsea have been the best team in the league this season, but Arsenal’s upturn in form of late has been impressive too.
A back three really seems to suit them, given the players Wenger has at his disposal. They were leaking goals, but a third centre half has more them more compact and less vulnerable to crosses and set pieces. Playing with wing-backs certainly gets the best out of their right-sided players. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has been a revelation in the role, and Hector Bellerin also has the pace and energy to be a success, with an extra centre-half to cover him when he bombs forward. On the left it is not so easy as Nacho Monreal is a strong defender but does not have the legs, while Kieran Gibbs is athletic but not as composed. Still, it has freed up Sanchez to wreak havoc going forwards, and he and Ozil have been combining well at present, while Aaron Ramsey has also improved after a really poor season, perhaps as he prefers playing in a two-man midfield.
It could come down to individual battles. Can Arsenal’s defenders keep their heads against Diego Costa? Can Ramsey/Xhaka/Coquelin cope with the physical presence of N’Golo Kante? Can Sanchez shake off the attentions of Cesar Azpilicueta? Can anyone in the Arsenal team stop Hazard? It will be a tall order, but over 90 minutes anything can happen, and Arsenal showed by beating Man City that they are still up for the fight and can thrive when they yield possession and burst forward on the counter-attack. It could well end up a lot closer than the odds suggest, and giving Arsenal a plus handicap could be the way to go here.
