Whilst Almunia’s latest humiliation in the game against Birmingham was the main news this weekend, the second story might have longer term importance.
American businessman Stan Kroenke bought another small batch of shares this weekend to leave him only 10 shares away from triggering an automatic takeover bid.
This is a pure PR game now – and reading the full message is difficult.
In November, Kroenke acquired 200 shares, reducing Chairman Peter Hill-Wood’s holding to 600 shares, or 0.6%. In September he’d joined the board. Since that moment we’ve known an end-game was being played out, but what it is isn’t clear.
We should assume a full takeover will happen at some point, and that that takeover is on an agreed timescale, likely in relation to the repayment program on various of the club’s debts. It’s likely to take place at the end of a full-league season to minimise the impact on the team and to create positive momentum going into a new season.
So it could be this year, or it could be next year, when Arsène Wenger’s contract is up for renewal. My gut says it will be next year – that for the purposes of generating positive noise right across the club, they’ll announce a new deal for Wenger and Kroenke’s takeover at the same moment. I assume that will be after another positive year of financial management, in which we decrease our debt burden by anywhere up to £50 million pounds.
The takeover then becomes the platform for Arsenal to grow into what we were promised – one of the very top clubs in world football, with the team financing to match and a stable financial and footballing platform unseen in the game since Juventus’ glory days under the ownership of Fiat.
But could it be this year? If things go horribly wrong between now and May, then it’s got to be a maybe. If we lose to Barca (twice!), and fail to capitalise on the matchup between Chelsea and Man United next weekend with a win over Wolves, then the season will likely drip away to a creditable third place finish… and a torrent of noise from fans. Will the disgruntledness of 2008/9 return, and quickly? Will the club need a renewed sense of momentum? Will the memories of this season be those four miserable defeats to Chelsea and United, rather than an admirably sustained shot at the league title?
If that is the case, the club might need a pick me up, and Kroenke’s takeover might need to be accelerated to provide it. It would bring a sense of progression, and it would be the platform to go out and right the wrongs in our goalkeeping, central defensive depth and strike-force which might be our undoing this year.
So we should hope it is next year rather than this year – hope that we can beat Barca, and hope that we can get to the very final weeks of the campaign still in the title hunt. Because if we do get Kroenke as our owner this year it means we’ve failed.
And that would be the most painful feeling of all.