We are now four games in to the Group stage of this season’s Champions League and it would be churlish to be anything other than 100% content as to progress so far. Four wins, eleven goals scored and zero conceded. Yes, absolutely, it could not be better. In retrospect and from jealous eyes in Middlesex and the North of England, we’ve had easy matches. Funny how away in Bilbao and home to Athetico didn’t feel like easy matches back when the draw was made in September. Hindsight is a very exact science but I’m pretty sure that if we had been offered nine or ten points back then, we would have jumped at it.
Now for a note of caution. Firstly I should reiterate that I am a great fan of this ‘Swiss’ format and I think that the one off matches makes for more exciting viewing. However, it can lead to a slightly skewed view of your position until the last set of matches (as an aside that final Group Stage day is amazing viewing, a genuine must watch). This season we are a classic example of this. Our last four matches are against Inter, Bayern, Bruges and Kairat. In reverse order: Kairat have been stubborn in all four matches to date, but playing at the Emirates should yield us three points. Bruges held Barca to a draw last night so will be no push over when we travel to Belgium in December and I see us getting a similar result to our Catalan friends. Then we can consider the last two together as I believe that they present equally tough challenges. Not only were they out two Pot 1 pairings from the draw, but they are also the only other teams with 100% records and form the bread in the Arsenal sandwich at the top the Group Stage table right now. I do think that they will bed as wary of us as we are of them and see both games being tight draws.
So where does that leave us? Well with only one previous season of this format, precedent is minimal and counts for very little. However one of those Super Computer things suggests that 10+ points will guarantee at least a play-off spot, whilst 16+ will see us finish in the top eight and go straight through to the Round of 16 as a seeded team. So we are already guaranteed a play-off spot and if my predictions above are correct, we will end with 18 points and a likely third to fifth place in the final table. As PSG showed last year, actual position can count for very l;ittle as look as you progress, but the margins are quite fine here. A different result in Bruges, one way or the other could dramatically change things whilst the two top tier matches have significant consequences for all three teams.
The only definite here is that we will be playing European football deep into the second half of the season and we are going to need every one of our reinforced squad to compete in all competitions. Even that may not be enough, January sales anyone?!
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