Mikel Arteta: Aston La Vista To The Title?

[Riou]

I am pretty sure whoever came up with using xG first, mainly did it to cause fights/arguments...so that guy is over the moon with the turn this thread has taken!

 

[UpTheGunnerz]

xG-believers



xG-deniers megachads

 

[Riou]

In my opinion.

You can't judge Arteta, until all our fans are supporters...or whatever the good one is.

 

[rich 1990]

In my opinion.

You can't judge Arteta, until all our fans are supporters...or whatever the good one is.

What?

 

[Riou]

What?

Arteta brought up a "Expected Support" stat about a month ago.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

And because they are so useless that's why every club has started hiring analysts, is relying on data, has started partnerships with data analyzing companies and the face of football has changed over the last 10 years to exactly a more methodical, mathematical iteration?

If that's good or not, or to your liking or not is one thing - and imo it has surpassed a limit where I'd say it's too much especially in terms of how it influences "the game" or singular players - but it changed the game and is important and thus of worth.

And btw that wasn't a strawman. Don't use terminology you don't understand.

It is fine I suppose you call me stupid in your posts over and over and I am them one gets a warning. There are stats I believe in this isn’t one of them. It is scientific when 4 different people give you 4 different answers, too bad you don’t get that basic fact. I believe in many statistics including advanced stats , this one is stupid. As I noted is like a thousand oversimplification sand involves loads of judgement calls and assumptions you just got to accept as immutable. So tell me smart guy do you think we were lucky to win the Sp**s match that is what your expected goal geniuses claim?

 

[Farzad Stoned]

If the guys doing the analyzing are to be taken seriously they have to explain how they got to certain values via their methods. So they should either say they take pen and rebound as two different chances or they create some sort of pen rebound stat, etc. etc.

That's also the next level farzazzazazadada yadda yadda doesn't get. There might be different xG values for one team, but if you look up their methods which they should explain then anyone can make up their mind on what to do with it or how to take those stats.

It's just the same with e.g. any institution that does surveys. Two institutions might do surveys on the same topic/question but will get to different results - the difference being made by their methods. That may or may not devalue the use of the survey, but usually it doesn't take away from the scientific baseline.

Regarding footie stats like xG this might result in some differences cause company A looked at games 1 to 1000, while company B looked at games 500 to 1500 and company C at 1000 to 2000, so they will definitely get a little different data resulting in company A saying chance for a corner flag shot goal is 0.1%, company B saying it's 0.3% and maybe company C saying it's 2% because randomly a **** ton of them happened in games 1000 to 2000 and especialy in games 1500 to 2000 which no other company evaluated. But usually you'll still see similar values, especially in something like football over a massive sample size.

Keep telling me I am stupid and I’ll show you what gets a red card you are condescending and nearly as persuasive as you think. Your numbers are stupid keep telling us how the geniuses at your stat agencies said we should of lost Nld. Or why don’t you defend the stupid forecasting tool that predicts that Arsenal on current form should expect 16 goals the rest of the season do these sound like accurate to anyone who doesn’t get fed baby food with a bib?

 

[Riou]

Stats should be used in sport, you can't just dismiss them because you don't like them.

Though I don't think you should entirely focus on them, kinda takes the fun out of football.

You need a good mix.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

The thing I don't get with people's great grievances with these stats also is that they almost always are just telling us common sense things.

Anyone who was watching Arsenal with anything resembling an idea for detail and understanding about football in 13/14 first half or 19/20 first half of the season could tell that we were grinding out victories and getting victories in an unsustainable fashion, ie that our results level was far exceeding our performance level, and that we were in for a regression to the mean. This was represented by xG. Same as anyone who was watching Brighton last season could tell that there was more to that team than its place in the table, also represented in xG.

Same as anyone who is watching Arsenal with something resembling an idea for detail and understanding about football will watch us and see that we are deficient in resisting the press and in pressing. And lo and behold it shows up in the metrics. You look at our pt tally of 20 and our xG of 15.54 and it also is telling us just the story we're watching: a team at a relatively mediocre performance level who is having a decent to good results level.

I don't understand why people try to make football statistics and what they are telling us out to be some kind of nerd rocket science; they are just giving us objective measures of what people who understand something about football and are looking at things in something of a balanced way are seeing. It's really rather prosaic and common sense in the end.

Ps don’t ever tell me what terms I can and can’t use I don’t give a **** what your condescending bore of an opinion is on anything, go tell other idiots online we should of lost NLD, and go burn your straw men, I never stated I don’t believe in stats this one is stupid. And I am done with my conversation with you I don’t talk to people who counter arguments with a link to Wikipedia on statistics as proof, I don’t have a problem with field of statistics just with this one as it is made up by mastubatory nerds so they can pretend to be smart

 

[Riou]

 

[Farzad Stoned]

There are answers to every question you just asked me on the link I shared with you earlier.

But yeah xG is based on the average player, that sample of one million shots or whatever will contain shots from Ronaldo and shots from Elneny. It all averages out, the sample sizes are huge. The numbers aren’t based on over simplifications at all, criteria is usually v.complex and I simplified it to explain to you.

Look it’s all very legit, there’s a reason why it’s one of the only new age stats to go mainstream. They show xG on match of the day, sky sports etc. This isn’t some dodgy stat that was invented last month.

If you’d rather ignore it then fair enough, those of us who like stats will continue to talk stats. Let’s stop spamming the thread with this now!

Fair enough,I still believe it is not an accurate measure. It isn’t worthless it isn’t anything I would base decisions on it isn’t an accurate forecasting tool that is for certain. If you enjoy talking about it please go right ahead

 

[blrgooner]

You do know statistics exists and is not some made up fairytale? If not, I'd advice you to click the following link for a general overview: Statistics - Wikipedia

Football statistics and xG has nothing to do with "a guy watches a match and gives you his opinion". The data is collected by companies analyzing and evaluating tons of matches. xG is based on how often a shot from a specific position on the field results in a goal - this data is, as I said, collected from dozens of games so you get an average value for the probability of a shot from specific positions resulting in a goal.

Using my example of a shot from the corner flag, e.g. they will look at 1000 games collecting the data for this specific shot. Now in those 1000 games 1 goal from a shot from the corner flag was scored, that means based on the data from these 1000 games the probability of scoring from such a shot is 0.1%. No opinion involved here whatsoever.

This has absolutely nothing to do with anyone's opinion. If you don't get this I unfortunately think you don't just not understand how statistics and maths work, but even deny their existence. As this seems to be the case I assume you to be not just dense but seriously intellectually challenged and I'd advice you to at least read a book or better yet do therapy.

The issue is not the stat itself. I think it can be used very effectively at an individual level. What everybody needs to understand is that xG stats are stats which focus only on shots on goal and the relative positions from where the shots were taken. By using this one metric and calling it using an umbrealla term "underlying stat" and saying that these "underlying stats" show how well a team has played overall is very problematic. It doesn`t take into account the context of the game. A shot in the first 15 mins may not be the same as a shot in the last 15 mins for example.

If I say that a team has a much higher xG over 30 games than the actual goals scored, it does mean that the team is likely to score more goals. If a team has an xG which is much lesser than actual goals, it does mean that the the attack has been over performing and is likely to regress to the mean at some point of time. Finding out the expected points by taking that teams expected goals in 1 game and comparing it with the opposite team`s expected points in the same game is something that statistically doesn`t make sense to me.

Against Sp**s, we were 3-0 up and then sat back.Against Crystal Palace we were down 2-1 in 65 mins, anybody who saw both the games could clearly see that one was a very good performance and the other one was a relatively poor performance. xG would show that we had a higher expected goals in the Crystal Palace palace game for us though and as per expected points, we should have won the game. Again here xG makes sense because Crystal Palace sat back and we played a lot of football in their half towards the end of the game, It doesn`t necessarily mean we deserved to win that game because we were quite poor in all areas of the pitch on that day. It was just the tactics/incentives of the players in that particular game which caused this difference in xG and not the quality of the performance itself.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

The issue is not the stat itself. I think it can be used very effectively at an individual level. What everybody needs to understand is that xG stats are stats which focus only on shots on goal and the relative positions from where the shots were taken. By using this one metric and calling it using an umbrealla term "underlying stat" and saying that these "underlying stats" show how well a team has played overall is very problematic. It doesn`t take into account the context of the game. A shot in the first 15 mins may not be the same as a shot in the last 15 mins for example.

If I say that a team has a much higher xG over 30 games than the actual goals scored, it does mean that the team is likely to score more goals. If a team has an xG which is much lesser than actual goals, it does mean that the the attack has been over performing and is likely to regress to the mean at some point of time. Finding out the expected points by taking that teams expected goals in 1 game and comparing it with the opposite team`s expected points in the same game is something that statistically doesn`t make sense to me.

Against Sp**s, we were 3-0 up and then sat back.Against Crystal Palace we were down 2-1 in 65 mins, anybody who saw both the games could clearly see that one was a very good performance and the other one was a relatively poor performance. xG would show that we had a higher expected goals in the Crystal Palace palace game for us though and as per expected points, we should have won the game. Again here xG makes sense because Crystal Palace sat back and we played a lot of football in their half towards the end of the game, It doesn`t necessarily mean we deserved to win that game because we were quite poor in all areas of the pitch on that day. It was just the tactics/incentives of the players in that particular game which caused this difference in xG and not the quality of the performance itself.

You mean you weren’t convinced by him pompously referring you to the Wikipedia page on statistics like he dug around in his butthole and found a gold nugget?

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Dodgy nickname aside @farzad4daarse has turned this place upside down. Elite stuff.

Joined in October and already a legend @farzad4daarse! The Aaron Ramsdale of A-M!

 

[Farzad Stoned]

Joined in October and already a legend @farzad4daarse! The Aaron Ramsdale of A-M!

Wow doubt I deserve it but thanks. This place has its characters for sure

 

[Farzad Stoned]

Ps why do I get forced moniker? For the record I very much believe in stats, just not expected goals. I guess I am just untrained, I don’t watch games and worry that there wasn’t enough foreplay before the orgasm of a goal. Apparently, Arteta is rated not only on goals scored, but the amount of foreplay before and on whether or not he cuddled and held us afterwards.

 

[SA Gunner]

If you thinking of getting on the Arteta bandwagon, just hold your fire until after the weekend.

If you have learnt anything in football, its just how fickle we fans are. A poor result will usher in endless I told you so's and ode's to our fraud.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

I'd put xG in the same category as witchcraft tbh, I think all the people involved are also involved in the occult too. Evil stuff best to stay away.

Dont even get me started on "possession", we all know that word has a double meaning

 

[Tir Na Nog]

If you thinking of getting on the Arteta bandwagon, just hold your fire until after the weekend.

If you have learnt anything in football, its just how fickle we fans are. A poor result will usher in endless I told you so's and ode's to our fraud.

Have some faith in our manager, we're not losing on Saturday.

 

[Olivier_Giroud]

It is disheartening and doubly tragic that we are now seeing Premier League Clubs having the best managers humanity has to offer while we are still stuck with the biggest garbage of football leading our club. Sp**s has Conte. Aston Villa recently acquired Gerard. I have on good authority that Zidane will be on his way to Manchester United in a weeks' time. Yet here we are celebrating our "make a wish" manager placing fifth like we won the Champions League... We would be back to 12th where we belong if not for the International Break mind you.

It is very enviable watching Pep, Klopp, Conte, Gerard, Howe, Rafa etc leading their club during their respective games while we have a very poor Chinese Copy of Guardiola aka Lego Pep. Our great club has become a driving school for managers... Are we just going to allow this status quo to continue?

We cannot CLOSE THE GAP no matter how much we trust the process because RIVAL CLUBS are NOT STAGNATING and in fact, in the coming years, are led by top class professionals while we are led by a used car salesman.. Where is the logic here? We are being delusional.. The sooner we wake up from this fallacious fantasy, the sooner the nightmare ends.