Edu’s Relentless Transfer Targets: January 2023

[yorch44]

We haven’t been extremely lucky. We just haven’t been extremely unlucky for once. We’ve had our fair share of injuries this season they just happen to be in areas we have depth (ie left back).

We had the team and depth we needed for a top 4 finish. But the goal posts have changed and we are challenging for the title. The question for me is do we go hard on a world class signing (like Rice or Savic) that only marginally improves the first 11 given Xhaka’s form OR try and get more depth in the striker, winger and DM position to sustain a europa league + title challenge?

Definitely second choice. I would prefer João Felix on winter. Xhaka is playing good football then use him. But the wings are a worry. We need more fire in the attack.

 

[ArsenesCoatMaker]

Honestly it’s difficult cos the team is doing well and as others have said at this point you have to aim a bit higher. I just don’t see what this Danilo guy is about at all. I like that we’ve built our squad cheaper than others but the flip side to that is sometimes you spend 17m on a gamble like Sambi and it kinda flops. Danilo feels more like that.

Tricky to get real quality in January but at this point we need to target players with at least some experience at the top level.

How do you know he's not the next big thing? To different extents Saliba, Gabriel, Tomi, Martinelli, Vieira and White were all punts too. Danilo is more experienced than a fair few of those when we signed them. We're only really focusing on the Lakonga/Tavares signings that haven't come good. I do like the look of Danilo on youtube. He's far more aggressive and physically engaging than Lakonga for a start but looks like he has a rounded skill set.

 

[ArsenesCoatMaker]

I would love to have him on Arsenal. He is the kind of signing to push for the title.

Who gets benched? Martinelli? I agree he would be perfect for our system. They need to a big sale apparently and he's still mainly starting from the bench. Would be a huge sign of intent if we landed him

 

[Sebastes]

How do you know he's not the next big thing? To different extents Saliba, Gabriel, Tomi, Martinelli, Vieira and White were all punts too. Danilo is more experienced than a fair few of those when we signed them. We're only really focusing on the Lakonga/Tavares signings that haven't come good. I do like the look of Danilo on youtube. He's far more aggressive and physically engaging than Lakonga for a start but looks like he has a rounded skill set.

The only real punts there are Martinelli and Vieira. With former we got him early and could afford to be a bit patient with his development. Vieira hasn’t shown to be good enough to in a good way to adequately replace/backup Ødegaard yet imo. Gabriel was in the tots in Ligue 1, Saliba was a generational talent and just a question of time, which we also could afford. White was held in high regards and had performed well. Tomi maybe the closest to Danilo, but he’d still proven himself in a top 5 league.

Danilo needs to be able to come in and perform from day 1 if he’s going to be worth to occupy a place in the squad, imho. I trust the club’s scouting and if they say he’s the one then I’m all for it. But if they think he’s a player with potential that could come good, like Lokonga or Vieira, then getting him is a mistake given where we find ourselves right now.

 

[Sebastes]

Who gets benched? Martinelli? I agree he would be perfect for our system. They need to a big sale apparently and he's still mainly starting from the bench. Would be a huge sign of intent if we landed him

40 games in 5 months, Jan-May, if we go all the way in all cups. With a third of the pl played so far and a WC where at least Jesus and Saka should feature, rotating players won’t be an issue.

And even if it was an issue. If we buy Felix or whoever and they come in and play better than someone else then it’s a win for the club. Idc if either of Nelli, Jesus or Saka gets benched because of us having someone who performs to a higher level.

Edit: as long as it’s not Rashford

 

[ArsenesCoatMaker]

The only real punts there are Martinelli and Vieira. With former we got him early and could afford to be a bit patient with his development. Vieira hasn’t shown to be good enough to in a good way to adequately replace/backup Ødegaard yet imo. Gabriel was in the tots in Ligue 1, Saliba was a generational talent and just a question of time, which we also could afford. White was held in high regards and had performed well. Tomi maybe the closest to Danilo, but he’d still proven himself in a top 5 league.

Danilo needs to be able to come in and perform from day 1 if he’s going to be worth to occupy a place in the squad, imho. I trust the club’s scouting and if they say he’s the one then I’m all for it. But if they think he’s a player with potential that could come good, like Lokonga or Vieira, then getting him is a mistake given where we find ourselves right now.

I think signing players from Ligue 1 and Serie A are punts though. We just have to look at Pepe and Lacazette to realise that. Brazilian football is a level below but Libertores is probably a high standard.

White was in high regard but played in a flat back 3 for Brighton, so that in itself makes it a bit of a punt.

As for Danilo needing to perform from day 1, I agree but the question is to what level. For me he needs to perform better than Elneny. In that he needs to break up play more frequently, pass forward more frequently and carry the ball forward more frequently. Then when Partey is out the drop off is less significant.

Going back to Lokonga, he does actually have the technical level to come good. The problem with him seems to be a very poor attitude. His interview showed a really bad attitude IIRC. He should be relishing doing everything he can to get a back up spot in any midfield position at a club as huge as Arsenal. Instead he thinks he's above working hard off the ball.

 

[ArsenalInMyHeart]

40 games in 5 months, Jan-May, if we go all the way in all cups. With a third of the pl played so far and a WC where at least Jesus and Saka should feature, rotating players won’t be an issue.

And even if it was an issue. If we buy Felix or whoever and they come in and play better than someone else then it’s a win for the club. Idc if either of Nelli, Jesus or Saka gets benched because of us having someone who performs to a higher level.

Edit: as long as it’s not Rashford

I really like Félix but i don't know where he can play in our squad. Without G.Jesus we will have trouble because Nketiah can't take this role but Félix can do it.

 

[Sebastes]

As for Danilo needing to perform from day 1, I agree but the question is to what level. For me he needs to perform better than Elneny. In that he needs to break up play more frequently, pass forward more frequently and carry the ball forward more frequently. Then when Partey is out the drop off is less significant.

Exactly this. We’re in total agreement here

 

[Halend]

Félix is a hard one because he seems very similar to Jesus in being a great all round forward without the clinical finishing, in fact you can describe all of our forwards in that regard. What we lack is a ruthless clinical finisher.

Also what his best position is is still unknown, in a previous era he's the perfect second striker in a two man attack but those days are gone and if it's true AM want to get back close to what they paid that's a hard deal to be comfortable with not knowing exactly who he is,

 

[SingmeasongSong]

Is it too late to hijack the Nkunku deal ?

 

[KrissKringle]

Which talented winger would come to us when we have 2 of the best talented wingers in the league?

I was looking more closely at Rafa Silva last night and the guy is a real problem for any defense. Small, so a low center of gravity that makes him strong on his feet, and a mixture of Santi and Fekir in terms of technique and speed.

As soon as he gets the ball he's going straight at his opponent. He can play anywhere in the front 3 and can score and assist in equal measure.

I think he'd really revitalize our attack, but the issue is that he's 29 and he's the main man at Benfica, who are likely to play a quarter final in the CL this season, so he's not exactly going to come cheap if they would entertain a sale.

 

[TornadoTed]

I hear all this talk of not having a clinical finisher and yet we are joint 1st for conversion rate in the Premier League this season with Man City and Newcastle.

So how can we not have any clinical players yet are top of the stats for being clinical?

My guess is that it means we have lots of players who are clinical 'enough' rather than relying on one guy who is banging in 20% of his chances flanked by a player who is struggling to covert 5% of their chances. Sp**s are below us as a team but I would expect Kane to have one of the highest conversion rates in the league individually.

If anything our problem may be (not that I think we have one) that we don't have enough shots, we are 5th, 70 shots behind Liverpool in 1st.

Thoughts?

Premier League - Conversion rate 23/24

This statistic provides a detailed overview of the chances and their conversion rate of all teams of the Premier League in the season {season}.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

 

[ArsenesCoatMaker]

I hear all this talk of not having a clinical finisher and yet we are joint 1st for conversion rate in the Premier League this season with Man City and Newcastle.

So how can we not have any clinical players yet are top of the stats for being clinical?

My guess is that it means we have lots of players who are clinical 'enough' rather than relying on one guy who is banging in 20% of his chances flanked by a player who is struggling to covert 5% of their chances. Sp**s are below us as a team but I would expect Kane to have one of the highest conversion rates in the league individually.

If anything our problem may be (not that I think we have one) that we don't have enough shots, we are 5th, 70 shots behind Liverpool in 1st.

Thoughts?

Premier League - Conversion rate 23/24

This statistic provides a detailed overview of the chances and their conversion rate of all teams of the Premier League in the season {season}.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

I think it's more to do with us creating higher quality chances in the area and overloading the opposition. Sp**s have taken nearly as many shots as we have. They certainly haven't created the same number of quality chances, so the assumption has to be they take more long shots that are less likely to convert.

 

[AbouCuéllar]

Vieira hasn’t shown to be good enough to in a good way to adequately replace/backup Ødegaard yet imo.

Don't really think we have a good enough sample to say this, honestly. The one game he replaced Ødegaard in the league he did well. His Europa League games have been uneven, but Ødegaard hasn't exactly stood out more than him in his Europa League inclusiones either, and there have been sparks. Let's see what happens but my gut instinct is that he'll surprise for good those who doubt him.

I was looking more closely at Rafa Silva last night and the guy is a real problem for any defense. Small, so a low center of gravity that makes him strong on his feet, and a mixture of Santi and Fekir in terms of technique and speed.

Yeah, he definitely seems a pretty special player. Weird he hasn't gone to a bigger club yet, dunno if it's a personality thing (I know he had a falling out with Portuguese manager, but he's a bit of a dullard so who knows if it means anything).

I hear all this talk of not having a clinical finisher and yet we are joint 1st for conversion rate in the Premier League this season with Man City and Newcastle.

So how can we not have any clinical players yet are top of the stats for being clinical?

My guess is that it means we have lots of players who are clinical 'enough' rather than relying on one guy who is banging in 20% of his chances flanked by a player who is struggling to covert 5% of their chances. Sp**s are below us as a team but I would expect Kane to have one of the highest conversion rates in the league individually.

If anything our problem may be (not that I think we have one) that we don't have enough shots, we are 5th, 70 shots behind Liverpool in 1st.

Thoughts?

Premier League - Conversion rate 23/24

This statistic provides a detailed overview of the chances and their conversion rate of all teams of the Premier League in the season {season}.

www.transfermarkt.co.uk

I think xG vs. actual goals is going to measure finishing better. But there we look good too. 31 G to 27.26 xG, +3.74 difference. City is better (Haaland effect surely involved here), +9.86, Tottenham is at +3.49, Leicester +8.37, other rivals between minus 0-1 or + 0-1 (Liverpool -1.84). I suppose xG vs. actual goals is probably a bit more relevant in the case of individual players and measuring their finishing (quick look shows Saka at 3 npG and 3.8 npxG, will have to look at Jesus and Martinelli, would be a pretty safe bet Jesus is below, not sure about Gabigod).

But even then, it's more measuring finishing plus luck / variance. Really much of finishing is variance and people get a bit confused about the importance of 'finishing' and how important being 'clinical' is (not saying it's not a factor or doesn't exist).

Best answer is certainly @ArsenesCoatMaker 's, mind, I'm just adding a bit of context here. In the end, conversion rate is all about quality of shot. xG tells us somewhat more about how 'clinical' we are, but comprehends many other factors and variables.

All in all, you make a good point and there's no objective measure to suggest we're not finishing well, in general.

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

 

[ArsenalInMyHeart]

I still think he is the most realistic option in January. Can he join us before the transfer window? We have a break during the world cup, if he joins us, he can play and train with our team?

 

[Yousif Arsenal]

I still think he is the most realistic option in January. Can he join us before the transfer window? We have a break during the world cup, if he joins us, he can play and train with our team?

Its most straight forward signing and pretty easy to make its all about if the intrest is still there and if we could him more cheaper than 25M

 

[AbouCuéllar]

Don't really think we have a good enough sample to say this, honestly. The one game he replaced Ødegaard in the league he did well. His Europa League games have been uneven, but Ødegaard hasn't exactly stood out more than him in his Europa League inclusiones either, and there have been sparks. Let's see what happens but my gut instinct is that he'll surprise for good those who doubt him.


Yeah, he definitely seems a pretty special player. Weird he hasn't gone to a bigger club yet, dunno if it's a personality thing (I know he had a falling out with Portuguese manager, but he's a bit of a dullard so who knows if it means anything).



I think xG vs. actual goals is going to measure finishing better. But there we look good too. 31 G to 27.26 xG, +3.74 difference. City is better (Haaland effect surely involved here), +9.86, Tottenham is at +3.49, Leicester +8.37, other rivals between minus 0-1 or + 0-1 (Liverpool -1.84). I suppose xG vs. actual goals is probably a bit more relevant in the case of individual players and measuring their finishing (quick look shows Saka at 3 npG and 3.8 npxG, will have to look at Jesus and Martinelli, would be a pretty safe bet Jesus is below, not sure about Gabigod).

But even then, it's more measuring finishing plus luck / variance. Really much of finishing is variance and people get a bit confused about the importance of 'finishing' and how important being 'clinical' is (not saying it's not a factor or doesn't exist).

Best answer is certainly @ArsenesCoatMaker 's, mind, I'm just adding a bit of context here. In the end, conversion rate is all about quality of shot. xG tells us somewhat more about how 'clinical' we are, but comprehends many other factors and variables.

All in all, you make a good point and there's no objective measure to suggest we're not finishing well, in general.

So...

Saka:
3 npG to 3.8 xG
Last season-- 9 npG to 10.2 npxG

Martinelli:
5 npG to 3.0 npxG
Last season--5 npG to 7.6 npxG

Jesus:
5 npG to 7.4 npxG
Last season--7 npG to 10.0 npxG

Ødegaard:
4 npG to 2.6 npxG
Last season-- 7 npG to 5.2 npxG

Didn't do Xhaka but I'm guessing he's quite outdoing his xG so far.

Way too small a sample to judge on this season but Saka and Jesus seem more or less in their line, ie it does seem a real thing that they're below average finishers, and Martinelli reversing his trend from last season, so perhaps he is improving as a finisher or perhaps it's just luck and small samples, or perhaps it's both.

Ødegaard would seem to be a far better finisher than people give him credit for, I'm saying this because he's outperformed his xG in every season there is data for it (la Real 4 npG to 3 npxG, Vitesse 7 to 4.6). Of course being a good finisher and a good scorer have little to do with each other.

 

[Sapient Hawk]

Dont think we can find a top class CM in January. The position is too critical in today's game.

Think we can get in a top forward though, and have Elneny and Lokonga support TP5 until the end of the season.

Big talk yes, but I think a top four finish is still good enough for us I think.

Wolves are in a precarious position. We should throw money at them & bring Matheus Nunes in.

 

[samspade]

So...

Saka:
3 npG to 3.8 xG
Last season-- 9 npG to 10.2 npxG

Martinelli:
5 npG to 3.0 npxG
Last season--5 npG to 7.6 npxG

Jesus:
5 npG to 7.4 npxG
Last season--7 npG to 10.0 npxG

Ødegaard:
4 npG to 2.6 npxG
Last season-- 7 npG to 5.2 npxG

Didn't do Xhaka but I'm guessing he's quite outdoing his xG so far.

Way too small a sample to judge on this season but Saka and Jesus seem more or less in their line, ie it does seem a real thing that they're below average finishers, and Martinelli reversing his trend from last season, so perhaps he is improving as a finisher or perhaps it's just luck and small samples, or perhaps it's both.

Ødegaard would seem to be a far better finisher than people give him credit for, I'm saying this because he's outperformed his xG in every season there is data for it (la Real 4 npG to 3 npxG, Vitesse 7 to 4.6). Of course being a good finisher and a good scorer have little to do with each other.

xg also woudn't be very instructive about a player's tendency to turn down shots they should have taken tho. I wonder if there's a further development that could be made to the stat which compares goals scored against the total maximum xg of each series of touches a player has had had the player shot for that touch. Comparing xg against potential xg had the player shot at the maximum xg point could also give you information about whether a player is making good decisions to shoot.

Of course this wouldn't tell you much about whether the player could have refined the chance to take a higher xg shot though and therefore shot too early.