Mikel Arteta: Aston La Vista To The Title?

[El Duderino]

Reckon he'll be on ear of that one assistant who wears airpods with pre recorded shouts of "BEN, TOMI, AARON and LACA" to make sure no one misses him.

 

[Hunta]

Ben White is gonna turn into Mustafi without Teta in his ear, isn’t he?

 

[Kav]

But isn’t it then okay with what some do, to reference a calendar year table? Or does it have to be shorter periods within one season to be permissible / relevant as you see it?

Most naturally a shorter period. Mainly because the variables will change from season to season. So looking at each season by itself requires some context and to lump the performances and results across two seasons is a certain way to ignore or miss different elements or factors that impact performances at a given time which do not exist at another date.

If the season is 38 league games why reference a 38 game period spanning two seasons like @Melquiades has done. Clearly he is pushing an agenda. We finished 8th last season over 38 games but people like him want to ignore that and selective choose the periods of results and performances that support a narrative he believes to be true.

There are no trophies or prizes for doing well over a calendar year.

A calendar year shows long term trends but as stated before you are looking at two seasons with different things going on in each. Further it ignores the competitive situation that exists in each season, yes each season has its own unique competitiveness and that isn’t duplicated across another season.

For example there are seasons where statistically most teams are slow off the mark to gain points. There are seasons where the gap between the big four and the rest are so huge it is laughable, there are seasons where goals are much lower than before and that’s sometimes due to things like interpretation of a rule or new rules. There are real time external factors like COVID-19 for example, the beginning of this season for the first month or so the football on show was horrible. The same for last season after the big Covid break that shut down the league. The quality of play was lower across the league. Different seasons have different factors that affect its competitiveness to my mind. Therefore if we are looking at a subset do so during a league campaign and not across two seasons.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

Most naturally a shorter period. Mainly because the variables will change from season to season. So looking at each season by itself requires some context and to lump the performances and results across two seasons is a certain way to ignore or miss different elements or factors that impact performances at a given time which do not exist at another date.

If the season is 38 league games why reference a 38 game period spanning two seasons like @Melquiades has done. Clearly he is pushing an agenda. We finished 8th last season over 38 games but people like him want to ignore that and selective choose the periods of results and performances that support a narrative he believes to be true.

There are no trophies or prizes for doing well over a calendar year.

So in theory, if one wouldn’t do so to push an agenda, but to show form of the team between December last year and December this year, that would be okay? Also taking all the changes circumstances into account.

 

[dynasty]

im not sure what is wrong with showing that we have done well from December to December. yes I know we finished 8th last season and no their are no prizes. but shows the improvement of the team? that its not all doom and gloom like what everyone is saying?

 

[Kav]

So in theory, if one wouldn’t do so to push an agenda, but to show form of the team between December last year and December this year, that would be okay? Also taking all the changes circumstances into account.

is it form over such a long time though? That’s probably the bigger question. In football terms we tend to look at form over a 5-10 game period. When discussing a longer period like 30+ games is it still form? Is it form after 60+games? If it is why don’t we view it over a longer period like a calendar year? Is it not because most accept that each season is unique?

 

[CaseUteinberger]

I get @Kav 's point on selective data though. He's saying that you can look at the "next 5 games" or whatever for an idea of form, but looking back at a favourable subset is more like hindsight

Two points:

1. Looking back at data is what data analytics is. Since we never have data points for the future.

2. When we are looking at results that happen chronologically, the longer the time series is the more informative it becomes. A shorter time series will be more misleading for drawing conclusions.

 

[Barry]

Personally the problem I have with it is that it completely ignores how bad last season was.

Kudos for the club for course correcting after the Kia brothers fiasco in Willian and Cedric, but let's not pretend like project youth mk.3 was always the plan.

*so far* he's made the jump of just getting the Ws, to getting performances, which is great.

But again, we've spent the last 8 months playing god awful boring football and most of this season we were scraping results for the better part of it.

It's still to early for any sort of gloating, as we saw last season after the Chelsea game.

Funnily enough, people bang on about ESR, but I posit that it was getting our defense set up what has carried us a lot until now.

Neither side should be gloating to be honest. It's far too early to call Arteta a success this season, although there are some promising signs. Likewise, the "low footballing IQ", "we should anoint Potter or Nuno Santo" comments from the last twelve months are equally suspect.

However this season plays out, I just hope that Arsenal are ambitious in their approach next summer. They shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger on Arteta if he slips up again and a better manager is available. This is a time to be optimistic about Arsenal finally though - we have a young team with some phenomenally promising players and some personality again. It's going to be an exciting second half of the season.

 

[drippin]

I get @Kav 's point on selective data though. He's saying that you can look at the "next 5 games" or whatever for an idea of form, but looking back at a favourable subset is more like hindsight.

It's not selective. The point for the boxing day to boxing day period comes having a playmaker in ESR, plus a month later another in Ødegaard.

Having two playmakers instead of none makes a huge difference, and we can see it in the results. I showed the photo for Arsenal's points and goals with ESR in the team vs. without. Which everyone naturally tried to ignore.

People expect Arteta to dominate without playmakers. Or play Wenger ball without almost any similar players he had.

Makes no sense to look at a short period either, form or long-term development, doesn't matter. It tells us our level for the past year.

 

[Macho]

I just hope we get 4th and the expectations floor raises a bit. I don't want to see Arteta get away with the whole heap of stuff he's gotten away with again and I think that is fair.

 

[AbouCuéllar]

There have been too many false starts under Arteta that while I like what I've seen in the past 3 league matches and am cautiously optimistic, I need to see how well the buildup play works against top sides (City) and midtable sides (Wolves and Spuds) before I can be convinced our buildup is now functional. Arsenal needs to play vs. a functional press to demonstrate functional buildup, because even a mediocre to poor buildup team can look good vs. a team that presses poorly and is unable to pressure effectively---the **** runs from that depleted Leeds squad come to mind.

Nice post and totally agree, though I have to say I've never seen our build-up play that functional against sides of this type even (watch back the West Ham game for example from last season at home, we struggled even against their 'press'--tbf, perhaps they pressed more in that game?). It did feel to me, especially in these last two games, like I was watching something qualitatively different, but I definitely take your point and agree with it re: false dawns.

A convincing performance against Wolves, for example, would go a long way toward convincing me this is real, but I guess that game isn't even coming up soon anymore?

 

[CaseUteinberger]

is it form over such a long time though? That’s probably the bigger question. In football terms we tend to look at form over a 5-10 game period. When discussing a longer period like 30+ games is it still form? Is it form after 60+games? If it is why don’t we view it over a longer period like a calendar year? Is it not because most accept that each season is unique?

I take that answer as a Yes to my question.

Regarding "form" or any other qualitative statement that you want to support with data in a time series I would always think it is better to have a longer time series. The shorter a time series, the more prone it is to showing effects from temporary / shorter lived causes.

The most objective table to measure Arteta's impact on us as a club would be one from the day he took over until now. Haven't seen one, but wouldn't be surprised if it has us somewhere between 6th and 8th. Hopefully when the league ends we will be somewhere between 4th and 6th in league position. My vote was at the beginning of the season that he should be fired if we do not make 6th place. I stick with that although my expectations have started to become higher. The way the season is playing out I want us to finish at least 5th and hopefully 4th. Getting back into the CL after Wenger, Emery and Arteta have failed to get us there over 5 seasons it would be nice. Especially if we do so with a clear plan and a young team.

 

[BIoodBrother]

Everton game was a nightmare.
I couldnt imagine top4 after that. Mentality disastrous in pouring rain. Confusion as why we almost won (remembering Nketiah).
Then we won 5games in a row against bad and depleted teams but in great style and with ease. That hasnt happened for ages. long gone Wenger days. Santi Alexis Özil Rambo gave us three weeks like that the last time on a Pitch. West Ham was probably the one that was supposed to be harder but they hab not one of their prefered defenders, so it was really no wonder we should win but it was the ease on the eye that made many of us breathe again.
The buzz here is right bc we improved but not by the amount that we are now favourites for top4.
United and esp Sp**s have underachieved.
70pts wont get us top4 if Conte or Ragnick get things right soon.
Also we wont be lucky with covid and injuries all season.
Need either Aubameyang to come back in or a replacement in winter to have any chance to get to 75/73points.
After brentford Chelsea City we wrote off the season too early and now we expect/demand too much from this so very young squad. Even if we dont get CL, with 70pts EuropaLeague will be fine to me, if the club continues to invest and heads into a direction that it has been heading for exactly a year now.
Ødegaard RamboII and Tomi were exactly what we needed.
Its about how many enjoyable Performances we get atm like the last 3 weeks and how we respond to setbacks.
I know that many of you are desperate for CL and titles but we seemed far further off it not so long a go, so i ask for many not see things so black and white.

 

[Tir Na Nog]

I just hope we get 4th and the expectations floor raises a bit. I don't want to see Arteta get away with the whole heap of stuff he's gotten away with again and I think that is fair.

We can never let out standards drop that low again. Unbelievable that finishing 8th and below, Leicester, West Ham and a Sp**s side managed by Ryan Mason was deemed acceptable.

Even 6th shouldn't be acceptable at a club like Arsenal, it definitely wasn't for other managers.

 

[CaseUteinberger]

we have a young team with some phenomenally promising players and some personality again. It's going to be an exciting second half of the season.

I liked that White got stuck in against Norwich when they started to kick us around. He might look like a nice boy, but think he has a bit of a dirtbag attitude about him. I also liked that Saka left some studs on one of their players when he was fouled and was getting up. Needs to be smart about that but like the attitude it shows. We need more of that in our team. We need to stop taking all the **** from other teams and referees! Time for the team, manager and club to fight back!

 

[El Duderino]

Neither side should be gloating to be honest. It's far too early to call Arteta a success this season, although there are some promising signs. Likewise, the "low footballing IQ", "we should anoint Potter or Nuno Santo" comments from the last twelve months are equally suspect.

However this season plays out, I just hope that Arsenal are ambitious in their approach next summer. They shouldn't be afraid to pull the trigger on Arteta if he slips up again and a better manager is available. This is a time to be optimistic about Arsenal finally though - we have a young team with some phenomenally promising players and some personality again. It's going to be an exciting second half of the season.

It's just that there's a lot of blanketing going on with the gloating, it would be like me saying all the inners are hairspray or Manberg (or @Riou (old habits, sorry, mate)) when a lot of them are reasonable posters.

Pretty easy to tell people who are being ott and those who genuinely believe the low football iq stuff.

Those who use the two or three crybabies as examples of the whole forum being unreasonably unhappy with the manager know it's not really a good point, specially because they aren't really worth listening to.

 

[Riou]

All I want is for Arsenal to win games, tbh...if that makes me unreasonable, then that's your issue to deal with as a supposed Arsenal fan...

 

[Barry]

Everton game was a nightmare.
I couldnt imagine top4 after that. Mentality disastrous in pouring rain. Confusion as why we almost won (remembering Nketiah).
Then we won 5games in a row against bad and depleted teams but in great style and with ease. That hasnt happened for ages. long gone Wenger days. Santi Alexis Özil Rambo gave us three weeks like that the last time on a Pitch. West Ham was probably the one that was supposed to be harder but they hab not one of their prefered defenders, so it was really no wonder we should win but it was the ease on the eye that made many of us breathe again.
The buzz here is right bc we improved but not by the amount that we are now favourites for top4.
United and esp Sp**s have underachieved.
70pts wont get us top4 if Conte or Ragnick get things right soon.
Also we wont be lucky with covid and injuries all season.
Need either Aubameyang to come back in or a replacement in winter to have any chance to get to 75/73points.
After brentford Chelsea City we wrote off the season too early and now we expect/demand too much from this so very young squad. Even if we dont get CL, with 70pts EuropaLeague will be fine to me, if the club continues to invest and heads into a direction that it has been heading for exactly a year now.
Ødegaard RamboII and Tomi were exactly what we needed.
Its about how many enjoyable Performances we get atm like the last 3 weeks and how we respond to setbacks.
I know that many of you are desperate for CL and titles but we seemed far further off it not so long a go, so i ask for many not see things so black and white.

Great post, this is exactly how I feel as well

 

[Barry]

I liked that White got stuck in against Norwich when they started to kick us around. He might look like a nice boy, but think he has a bit of a dirtbag attitude about him. I also liked that Saka left some studs on one of their players when he was fouled and was getting up. Needs to be smart about that but like the attitude it shows. We need more of that in our team. We need to stop taking all the **** from other teams and referees! Time for the team, manager and club to fight back!

They are all showing it now - Ramsdale, Ødegaard, Gabriel, Tierney, obviously Xhaka, Laca as well. We have a proper spine again - character as well as some quality. I know that the "young team" point gets laboured and annoys some people but it's totally realistic to expect a further improvement next season. You add in the fact that we have 5+ new starters this year and we could be looking at a really dangerous team at the top end of the table next year... It's baby steps though - we need to get 4th or 5th this season first, but the fact it's now looking possible is so good after the **** show of the last three years.

 

[Big Nate]

It's not selective. The point for the boxing day to boxing day period comes having a playmaker in ESR, plus a month later another in Ødegaard.

Having two playmakers instead of none makes a huge difference, and we can see it in the results. I showed the photo for Arsenal's points and goals with ESR in the team vs. without. Which everyone naturally tried to ignore.

People expect Arteta to dominate without playmakers. Or play Wenger ball without almost any similar players he had.

Makes no sense to look at a short period either, form or long-term development, doesn't matter. It tells us our level for the past year.

Great post