Mikel Arteta: Aston La Vista To The Title?

[Makingtrax]

You wanted him to succeed Wenger though?

Very true. I thought he had what it takes to inspire players, and working under Wenger and Pep, I thought he'd be an attacking manager. It's always a big gamble taking a leader on the playing field into management so quickly, like Lampard at Chelsea or Gerrard at Rangers.

But what's amazed me is the time and money the club has afforded him, given the mistakes he's made and the way we've played. 8th place finishes should have been unacceptable after the way Arsène and Unai were treated.

Nevertheless, two positives, despite his underlying stats, he's ground out some good results and quickly corrected the poor transfer mistakes he's made, like Runarsson, Willian, Luiz, Mari, Cedric etc. He is learning.

The backing from KSE has been incredible really. This season will tell us how foolish or clever they've been.

 

[Makingtrax]

Arsène Wenger spoke about how data & analytics plays such a small part in football and the top coaches don't use them often, they watch the player.

Really! Yet he went along with Gazidis' introduction of StatDNA at a very early stage of the 'AI scout' development in analytics.

Super-agent Jon Smith details Arsenal’s use of StatDNA in his 2017 book ‘The Deal: Inside the World of a Super-Agent” and points out some of the early players it identified like Chamakh, Chambers, Debuchy, Podolski, Gabriel Paulista etc, none of them brilliant.

And at FIFA, Wenger, and Rosenfeld (Head of Stat DNA) released by Raul, will also be looking at how analytics can be used as part of the global coaching curriculum.

 

[Makingtrax]

I blame Mikel for people obsession with xG. Fans like a holiday away from reality sometimes and burying your head in an alternate league table that ultimately means absolutely **** all is basically like firing up your favourite porn channel and relieving yourself. It only becomes potentially harmful when you try to ram it down peoples throats though. xG on the other hand--when you see it too much, it's like having a Jehova's witness pushing leaflets into your letter box every day.

You're the lad who when the doc says there's some concern over your blood data, says,'I've never felt better. I'll wait til I fall over before I take any notice of that ****.'

 

[OnlyOne]

Really! Yet he went along with Gazidis' introduction of StatDNA at a very early stage of the 'AI scout' development in analytics.

Super-agent Jon Smith details Arsenal’s use of StatDNA in his 2017 book ‘The Deal: Inside the World of a Super-Agent” and points out some of the early players it identified like Chamakh, Chambers, Debuchy, Podolski, Gabriel Paulista etc, none of them brilliant.

And at FIFA, Wenger, and Rosenfeld (Head of Stat DNA) released by Raul, will also be looking at how analytics can be used as part of the global coaching curriculum.

 

[Makingtrax]

I am not worthy. This is why you're trusted, your football knowledge, willingness to engage in discussion with others and insight into the game matches that of the top pundits.

 

[Trilly]

In fairness to Mikel he’s actually done a lot of the things I think we needed to do ages ago which was regenerate the squad and he’s done it in a relatively short period of time. Players or characters that weren’t up to scratch have been mostly removed whereas in the past we’ve indulged players far too much.

He’s managed through force of personality to get every player and ownership on board, they clearly all back him, to the tune of £150 million or so. Even during our disastrous run I didn’t hear any murmurings from players.

Have to say though, the area I thought he’d be strong in but where he’s shown the most weakness is actual coaching. Our attack for the most part still looks disjointed, we still struggle to really control games, he makes some baffling big brain decisions like going up against Man City with a midfield 1, Xhaka at LB, Tierney just pumping crosses in mindlessly as out only attacking outlet, our top goal scorer continuously moved around the team and really struggling to coach a team with a coherent press or able to play out against one.

He got the job on the back of being a really good coach at City as far as I’m aware yet I haven’t seen much flair in this regard. I think the upturn is almost solely down to him having better players available to him now.

I’m pretty positive about Arsenal at the moment just because I think most smart managers would be pretty excited to work with what we currently have which means to me we don’t have to be totally committed to Mikel and not worry too much if he’s not the guy.

Perfect tbh.

Believe it or not I am optimistic about Arsenal in general. I just don't think Mikel is the guy. Maybe we'll look back on this period and thank Mikel for all the work he did off the pitch, he has done quite well for the most part.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

Your only talking about expected goals not our defence. We have only scored 13 goals this season which is way less than most of the top sides, so u would expect our xG to be fairly low. Its winning our close games and our defence (after the first 3 games) which is why we are currently 5th, not our attack by any means.

So you believe it is a logical projection that if Arsenal continues on current form, gets no worse or no better that we will score a total of 16 goals in remaining 25games? You also believe it is a logical that one of these agencies had us losing to Sp**s, you watched NLD were we never in danger of losing that match ? Their own fans said we smashed them. This number Xg is completely worthless, I’ll bet you anything you like and give 3 to 1 odds if Arsenal scores less 16 goals or less the rest of the season, that is what one of Xg geniuses says we can expect with our current level of play. Come on 3 to 1 odds mate, how good is Xg at forecasting and predicting the real world?

 

[Trilly]

The backing from KSE has been incredible really. This season will tell us how foolish or clever they've been.

Was listening to the Tuesday club and they spoke about the speech Wenger gave at the invincible premiere.

To paraphrase Wenger went on to talk about the academy, the stadium, the backing from KSE etc. And the cast were all positive that he was essentially Mikel “I wish I was in your shoes right now”.

He’s literally got everything he needs. The one positive of this season is that at the end of it we’ll well and truly know whether Arteta deserves to be in the job or not. Anything below 5th is a failure, depending on how the season goes even 5th might be a failure.

 

[Trilly]

Really! Yet he went along with Gazidis' introduction of StatDNA at a very early stage of the 'AI scout' development in analytics.

Super-agent Jon Smith details Arsenal’s use of StatDNA in his 2017 book ‘The Deal: Inside the World of a Super-Agent” and points out some of the early players it identified like Chamakh, Chambers, Debuchy, Podolski, Gabriel Paulista etc, none of them brilliant.

And at FIFA, Wenger, and Rosenfeld (Head of Stat DNA) released by Raul, will also be looking at how analytics can be used as part of the global coaching curriculum.

I think he was lying.

Can’t imagine a guy nicknamed the professor ever saying that.

 

[Trilly]

So you believe it is a logical projection that if Arsenal continues on current form, gets no worse or no better that we will score a total of 16 goals in remaining 25games? You also believe it is a logical that one of these agencies had us losing to Sp**s, you watched NLD were we never in danger of losing that match ? Their own fans said we smashed them. This number Xg is completely worthless, I’ll bet you anything you like and give 3 to 1 odds if Arsenal scores less 16 goals or less the rest of the season, that is what one of Xg geniuses says we can expect with our current level of play. Come on 3 to 1 odds mate, how good is Xg at forecasting and predicting the real world?

Can I ask where this 16 goals in remaining 25 games comes from?

The two xG sites I’m aware of both have us as producing around 1.3 xG per match (which would be about 33 goals over the rest of the season) and I highly doubt any of the four you claim have us below that figure.

 

[Jury]

You're the lad who when the doc says there's some concern over your blood data, says,'I've never felt better. I'll wait til I fall over before I take any notice of that ****.'

Come on now… I think there’s a distinct difference!

I’ve not slagged it off. I’ve just said it’s there to be picked up and put down by whoever fancies it, like that screwed up page of Fiesta you’d find caught up in a bush back in the day. It’s interesting snd yet completely worthless at the same time. I love it.

 

[Barry]

Can I ask where this 16 goals in remaining 25 games comes from?

The two xG sites I’m aware of both have us as producing more than 1.3 xG per match (which would be about 33 goals over the rest of the season) and I highly doubt any of the four you claim have us below that figure.

I'm baffled by it to be honest. Might be missing something but I have us on an xG of around 16 goals so far this season from 11 games - higher than our actual number of goals scored. If we continue scoring at that rate it would mean we end the season around 55 goals scored. Incidentally this is exactly what we managed last season. As you said it suggests we need to score more than we have been (but small sample size & affected by the first three matches etc.)

 

[Makingtrax]

Was listening to the Tuesday club and they spoke about the speech Wenger gave at the invincible premiere.

To paraphrase Wenger went on to talk about the academy, the stadium, the backing from KSE etc. And the cast were all positive that he was essentially Mikel “I wish I was in your shoes right now”.

He’s literally got everything he needs. The one positive of this season is that at the end of it we’ll well and truly know whether Arteta deserves to be in the job or not. Anything below 5th is a failure, depending on how the season goes even 5th might be a failure.

Spot on. Lampard didn’t get this kind of backing. Mikel’s had promotion to outright manager, more money than the club can rightly afford, tolerance of being mid table and completely out of Europe, and time to learn on the job. No other top 6 club would have given that kind of all round support.

If it pays off and we get back amongst the top 4 and runs at trophies, KSE will look pretty cool. If we sink back again to below 5th in the Europa conference, they’ll be rightly criticised. 5th is sort of up for debate.

 

[A_G]

Spot on. Lampard didn’t get this kind of backing.

Had Pulisic come in for £58m the summer he joined as well

 

[Macho]

That's kinda like Emery getting "backed" though isn't it?

We should probably define backing cause apart from Chilwell (and Rice and lesser extent Mendy) who Lampard kicked a fuss up about, I doubt he picked any of those.

 

[Makingtrax]

Come on now… I think there’s a distinct difference!

I’ve not slagged it off. I’ve just said it’s there to be picked up and put down by whoever fancies it, like that screwed up page of Fiesta you’d find caught up in a bush back in the day. It’s interesting snd yet completely worthless at the same time. I love it.

Very little information is worthless though. That Fiesta page you kept folded up in your back pocket until you were 30, showed you what you’d been missing all that time.

 

[Makingtrax]

Had Pulisic come in for £58m the summer he joined as well

I agree he got the cash, but he didn’t get the tolerance or the time though.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

Can I ask where this 16 goals in remaining 25 games comes from?

The two xG sites I’m aware of both have us as producing around 1.3 xG per match (which would be about 33 goals over the rest of the season) and I highly doubt any of the four you claim have us below that figure.

One of the soghts had our expected goals at .64 per game multiply that by the remaining goals. If the methodology is correct then we should score 2 goals in 3 matches on current form.

 

[MartiSaka]

So you believe it is a logical projection that if Arsenal continues on current form, gets no worse or no better that we will score a total of 16 goals in remaining 25games? You also believe it is a logical that one of these agencies had us losing to Sp**s, you watched NLD were we never in danger of losing that match ? Their own fans said we smashed them. This number Xg is completely worthless, I’ll bet you anything you like and give 3 to 1 odds if Arsenal scores less 16 goals or less the rest of the season, that is what one of Xg geniuses says we can expect with our current level of play. Come on 3 to 1 odds mate, how good is Xg at forecasting and predicting the real world?

What u r talking about in the first sentence is not a problem with the xG but a problem with the model they are using to make a prediction of xG into the future. xG on its own can't be used to predict future xG.

Also not saying xG is significantly useful you are overestimating what it should be used for. But it is calculated with a methodology and correlated to chance creation, it's not a subjective rating. It can often give some indication if a team is being efficient or wasteful in front of goals.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

What u r talking about in the first sentence is not a problem with the xG but a problem with the model they are using to make a prediction of xG into the future. xG on its own can't be used to predict future xG.

Also not saying xG is significantly useful you are overestimating what it should be used for. But it is calculated with a methodology and correlated to chance creation, it's not a subjective rating. It can often give some indication if a team is being efficient or wasteful in front of goals.

It is less useful than shots, shots on target or simply watching to see which team creates most of the best chances. That is the problem I have it has limited usefulness and is more skewed than just looking at a composite of shots, shots on target, and chances created. This supposedly objective rating criteria is more complex and less telling than the base data they use to put in their rating system. The methodology is an oversimplification error multiplied by a million, the percentage chance of any particular shot scoring has a huge number of variables not addressed by the model or over simplified by the model.