Betting On Football Thread 2016/17

[OG J0E]

Been a quiet patch recently but I see value today, mostly in draw-no-bets on teams with home games they probably won't lose and could/should win.

Utd DNB at home to City @1.80
Boro DNB at home to Palace @1.66
Burnley DNB at home to Hull @1.86
Arsenal -1.0 at home to Southampton (wait for starting line-ups) @2.05

Stolen from RedCafe:
Pescara +0.5 at home to Inter @2.16

 

[OG J0E]

Been a quiet patch recently but I see value today, mostly in draw-no-bets on teams with home games they probably won't lose and could/should win.

Utd DNB at home to City @1.80
Boro DNB at home to Palace @1.66
Burnley DNB at home to Hull @1.86
Arsenal -1.0 at home to Southampton (wait for starting line-ups) @2.05

Stolen from RedCafe:
Pescara +0.5 at home to Inter @2.16

Going well so far Forgot that this is the Prem where home teams never win for the last season or so. Got BTTS in Liverpool-Leicester so hopefully Leicester get an equaliser.

 

[OG J0E]

Just looking through SkyBet's CL odds.

You can get 3.36 on Arsenal/PSG, Barca/City, Atletico/Bayern and Dortmund/Real to qualify from their groups, dual forecast so it doesn't matter whether 1st or 2nd. This is a banker IMO, can't see any of the other teams in these groups troubling them.
Also 2.75 on CSKA Moscow to finish bottom of their group - in with Sp**s, Leverkusen and Monaco who are all better than them.
And 5.00 straight forecast on Porto/Leicester as 1st and 2nd in their group.

Obviously means waiting till December for the winnings, better returns than leaving your money in a bank though.

 

[OG J0E]

We are 7/4 to win our group as well which is good value, given how weakened the PSG team tomorrow is looking.

 

[carlito'sway]

Can I make a bet somewhere on David Moyes not lasting the season?

 

[OG J0E]

Some midweek CL bets:

Arsenal -2.0 vs Ludogorets @ 1.71
Bayern -2.0 vs PSV @ 1.95
Real -3.5 vs Legia Warsaw @1.80
Barca -1.0 vs City @ 1.91
Celtic +0.5 vs Moenchengladbach @ 1.75
Leicester to beat Copenhagen @ 1.95
Monaco draw-no-bet vs CSKA @ evens

 

[OG J0E]

Some midweek CL bets:

Arsenal -2.0 vs Ludogorets @ 1.71
Bayern -2.0 vs PSV @ 1.95
Real -3.5 vs Legia Warsaw @1.80
Barca -1.0 vs City @ 1.91
Celtic +0.5 vs Moenchengladbach @ 1.75
Leicester to beat Copenhagen @ 1.95
Monaco draw-no-bet vs CSKA @ evens

5/6 with Monaco refunded. Shoutout to Kolo for making sure it wasn't a clean sweep

Going to be posting tips more regularly now in case people fancy getting on.

 

[OG J0E]

Watford are good value to beat Hull this weekend @ 1.85. Watford are decent, Hull are **** and will be tired from their League Cup game tonight which could go to extra time.

Equally I would lay Liverpool at Palace @ 2.33. Liverpool have a tough cup game against Sp**s, Palace are their bogey team, Benteke will definitely score etc.

 

[Loraine]

OG J0E, would you place these tips as singles or lump them all in together as a multiple bet? how many of your miltiple bets come in? I might start following your tips.

How much did you make from this bet?

Arsenal -2.0 vs Ludogorets @ 1.71
Bayern -2.0 vs PSV @ 1.95
Real -3.5 vs Legia Warsaw @1.80
Barca -1.0 vs City @ 1.91
Celtic +0.5 vs Moenchengladbach @ 1.75
Leicester to beat Copenhagen @ 1.95
Monaco draw-no-bet vs CSKA @ evens

 

[OG J0E]

OG J0E, would you place these tips as singles or lump them all in together as a multiple bet? how many of your miltiple bets come in? I might start following your tips.

How much did you make from this bet?

Arsenal -2.0 vs Ludogorets @ 1.71
Bayern -2.0 vs PSV @ 1.95
Real -3.5 vs Legia Warsaw @1.80
Barca -1.0 vs City @ 1.91
Celtic +0.5 vs Moenchengladbach @ 1.75
Leicester to beat Copenhagen @ 1.95
Monaco draw-no-bet vs CSKA @ evens

I don't do accumulators, and rarely doubles or trebles either. The bets above were all singles. I make more than I lose, though it doesn't usually go quite so well as the Champions League bets last week, but I will try to post here more regularly now so other people can make some money too if they want to risk it.

 

[Loraine]

That would be brilliant, I'll looking to add a few more quid into my back pocket each week. I have the thread watched, so will keep an eye out for any recommendations.

Wish i'd got on these matches last week, would have been a nice profit

 

[Giroud]

If you're serious about making money you should stick to singles and record every bet you make. The bookies build in an overround on all their markets so they can make a profit whatever the outcome of the event and when you place a multiple you're essentially multiplying that overround which shifts the odds even further in the bookies favour. If you don't record all your bets you'll only remember the winners and forget all the losers. Recording your bets allows you to see whether your strategy is profitable and if not gives you the chance to step back, adjust your approach and give it another go which may well do better.

That's the best advice I could give.

 

[OG J0E]

Yep, this is why accumulators are so unprofitable.

Imagine a team has a 50/50 chance of winning - the bookies will give you odds of 1.95 instead of 2.00, shaving off 5% as an overround. That means each time you add a selection to an accumulator, you're losing an extra 5%. Place a 10-fold and you're getting odds of less than 60% of what you should be getting.

 

[turkish gooner]

Benfica HT/FT (win)

PSG -1 (win)

Beşiktaş -1 (draw)

Ajaccio ht/Ft (win)

Troyes ht/ft (win)

Twente ht/ft (win)

 

[crazyman]

Liverpool to win and both teams to score seems like a good bet now. 66% of their matches have ended like that.

 

[Giroud]

Ibrahimovic out to 14/1 to be Premier League top scorer which looks like a nice bit of value. He's taken the most shots on goal by a considerable margin and from dangerous areas too. He hasn't scored in a while but the market seems to have overreacted badly as he's still getting loads of chances and with a bit of luck he would have probably had 2 goals today alone. If he keeps getting chances at this rate he's going to start scoring soon and the 14/1 on offer right now will look silly especially when you can get 4 places on each way bets. That's essentially 7/2 to finish in the top 4.

I can't see many 20 goal a season players in the league to be honest. Sanchez might get there if he keeps playing up front but Kane is already well behind and Lukaku is a bit in and out. Walcott will get injured at some point and Liverpool don't have a proper forward who will get the majority of their goals. That makes me think Ibrahimovic should be one of the front runners to get in the top 4. Aguero and Costa will likely get to 20 but both are injury prone and if either or both hit the treatment table Ibrahimovic has a good chance of being the best of the rest.

 

[crazyman]

Liverpool to win and both teams to score seems like a good bet now. 66% of their matches have ended like that.

I hope you guys listened to me.

 

[OG J0E]

Think Stoke are underrated at 2.10 to beat Swansea tonight, would price them more like 1.90 myself. Swansea really aren't very good, while Stoke are a decent team who are picking up form again and have home advantage.

 

[OG J0E]

Lots more mismatches in the CL tonight and tomorrow, gone mostly for the reverse of results from two weeks ago:

Atletico -2.0 vs Rostov @ 1.71
Benfica -0.75 vs Dynamo Kiev @ 1.88
City +0.5 vs Barca @ 1.70
Bayern -1.0 away at PSV @ 1.74

Leicester +0.5 away at Copenhagen @ 1.75
Real -2.5 away at Legia @ 1.85
Monaco to beat CSKA @ 1.86
Sevilla -1.5 vs Zagreb @ 1.71

 

[OG J0E]

1.83 on Betfair for both teams to score in our game tonight is also good value.