Edu's Release Clause Targets: January 2022

[Henry boi]

not sure about that price but yeah, Ward Prowse is a good shout

No ward-prowse is a set piece merchant and to have him as our main CM, dear God help us

 

[yybecause]

No ward-prowse is a set piece merchant and to have him as our main CM, dear God help us

set piece merchant who has the skills to play at bigger level

 

[Henry boi]

set piece merchant who has the skills to play at bigger level

But can he move us a level up though, we are close but we really need a game changer at CM. I'm talking Partey level signing. WP would just be filling up the space imo

 

[TornadoTed]

Never scored over 19 non penalty goals in the league and at the same age had 9 league goals to his name, one of which was a penalty. To his credit Lacazette had been fairly consistent in the number of goals from open play he has scored year in year out in both France and England. Problem is he just doesn't score enough of them.

Fair enough but I think Lacazettes lack of goals if overblown. Only 8 players scored more league goals than Laca's 13 last season and he started a lot less games than all of those above him.

I actually think 19 league goals is a lot, I shake my head when I see talk about finding a 20+ league goal a season striker as finding that kind of player is highly unlikely. The only ones who do that regularly are Kane, Aguero and Salah and all take penalties regularly.

Only 2 players got more than 19 goals last season
Only 4 players in 2019-20, 2018-19, 2017-18
Only 5 players in 2016-17
Only 3 players in 2015-16, 2014-15, 2013-14, 2012-2013, 2011-2012

19 goals of any description would put you in the top 6 scorers in the league for the last 10 seasons, 19 open play goals and a few penalties would see you getting the golden boot most years.

 

[Barry]

This is a really nice way of looking at it. I did a stats based one (since I'm me). Can't include all of them, but added Jovic. Also can't include some of the traits as data isn't really available, or at least not to me.

View attachment 5428

Spoiler: Definitions & method

Used FBRef data and looked for above 50th percentile among forwards in the last 365 days (FBRef's scouting report).

Good in the air - Aerials won & aerials won %. If player is above 50th percentile they get .5 points for each
Can create their own shots - SCA (drib) or successful dribbles that led to a shot attempt.
Can pass incisively - Key passes, Passes into penalty area & SCA (PassLive)
Can retain possession back to goal and link - Dispossessed/Touches ratio & Miscontrols/Pass target ratio. .5 points if player has 5% or less. Not an exact science to judge if they're in the 50th percentile since it's a ratio but benchmarks gives that it's a fair number imo
Movement to attack the ball
Has the pace to run in behind
Is robust and physical
Can dribble - Successful dribbles & Successful dribble % gives .5 each
Can score from the edge of the box Shooting ability - Shots total & npxG/Shot gives .5 each
Can use both feet

Nice! Love what you've done here and it's unfair to pick holes in your method but using the 50th pc seems a bit binary, like we are rewarding qualities that are average but not exceptional... That aside I think that non penalty goals / expected goals should have a higher rating as the key stat for central forwards...

Also, where you've got options coming out similar, but some are aged 21/22 and others are 27 there's obviously the chance that the younger guys can improve elements of their game. It's a really arbitrary opinion, but I kind of think that guys like Ollie Watkins have a ceiling based on what we've seen already whereas some of the others might go on to be incredible over time... It's damn hard predicting who though.

 

[Sebastes]

Nice! Love what you've done here and it's unfair to pick holes in your method but using the 50th pc seems a bit binary, like we are rewarding qualities that are average but not exceptional... That aside I think that non penalty goals / expected goals should have a higher rating as the key stat for central forwards...

Also, where you've got options coming out similar, but some are aged 21/22 and others are 27 there's obviously the chance that the younger guys can improve elements of their game. It's a really arbitrary opinion, but I kind of think that guys like Ollie Watkins have a ceiling based on what we've seen already whereas some of the others might go on to be incredible over time... It's damn hard predicting who though.

Yep, I mean this is just my stats take on the scoring method The Playmaker suggested, which is binary in itself. If we look at players’ relative competence in each of these then all of a sudden we’re looking at very different players.
Also, if we’re setting the threshold at even the 75th percentile then none of them will look particularly prolific.

I might have some time tonight or tomorrow to do radar charts for some of them, but then I’ll base it on Statsbomb’s radars for forwards so won’t be quite the same

 

[The_Playmaker]

This is a really nice way of looking at it. I did a stats based one (since I'm me). Can't include all of them, but added Jovic. Also can't include some of the traits as data isn't really available, or at least not to me.

View attachment 5428

Spoiler: Definitions & method

Used FBRef data and looked for above 50th percentile among forwards in the last 365 days (FBRef's scouting report).

Good in the air - Aerials won & aerials won %. If player is above 50th percentile they get .5 points for each
Can create their own shots - SCA (drib) or successful dribbles that led to a shot attempt.
Can pass incisively - Key passes, Passes into penalty area & SCA (PassLive)
Can retain possession back to goal and link - Dispossessed/Touches ratio & Miscontrols/Pass target ratio. .5 points if player has 5% or less. Not an exact science to judge if they're in the 50th percentile since it's a ratio but benchmarks gives that it's a fair number imo
Movement to attack the ball
Has the pace to run in behind
Is robust and physical
Can dribble - Successful dribbles & Successful dribble % gives .5 each
Can score from the edge of the box Shooting ability - Shots total & npxG/Shot gives .5 each
Can use both feet

That is some thorough work. Excellent post. I guessed the scores without looking at stats, but it is really interesting that Jovic ranks the highest statistically. I don't think there is a more complete striker available. It would be interesting to see how Schick scores also.

 

[Moviegooner]

A midfielder is more important than a striker. Sure striker is defiantly needed but it can wait til the summer.

 

[Taurul]

 

[OnlyOne]

Green on the spreadsheet. This is very interesting indeed.

 

[OnlyOne]

When Jimmy speaks you listen.

 

[Wiltord's left boot]

Who are we being linked with who's contract is expiring in the summer? Douglas Luiz?

 

[A_G]

When Jimmy speaks you listen.

Stop, people on here will actually believe you.

 

[Sebastes]

Nice! Love what you've done here and it's unfair to pick holes in your method but using the 50th pc seems a bit binary, like we are rewarding qualities that are average but not exceptional... That aside I think that non penalty goals / expected goals should have a higher rating as the key stat for central forwards...

Also, where you've got options coming out similar, but some are aged 21/22 and others are 27 there's obviously the chance that the younger guys can improve elements of their game. It's a really arbitrary opinion, but I kind of think that guys like Ollie Watkins have a ceiling based on what we've seen already whereas some of the others might go on to be incredible over time... It's damn hard predicting who though.

Yep, I mean this is just my stats take on the scoring method The Playmaker suggested, which is binary in itself. If we look at players’ relative competence in each of these then all of a sudden we’re looking at very different players.
Also, if we’re setting the threshold at even the 75th percentile then none of them will look particularly prolific.

I might have some time tonight or tomorrow to do radar charts for some of them, but then I’ll base it on Statsbomb’s radars for forwards so won’t be quite the same

Here's a more thorough look at it. Added in Schick as well. And Laca as reference for what we've got today. Went for some combination of that crab stats dude on twitter's categories and ones I personally felt were interesting.

Spoiler: Lots of charts

 

[Wiltord's left boot]

Who are we being linked with who's contract is expiring in the summer? Douglas Luiz?

Sorry just checked and I think it's end of next season when his contact expires. Maybe Zakaria?

 

[field442]

Who are we being linked with who's contract is expiring in the summer? Douglas Luiz?

I think we’ve been keen on Zakaria before. That tweet is most likely bollocks though.

 

[benjamin86]

Good read if you want a rough idea on who's playing well in Ligue 1.

 

[MD3 Gunner]

Is that Jimmy bloke any reliable ??

 

[sergio_giorgini]

Good read if you want a rough idea on who's playing well in Ligue 1.

Fabien Centonze of Metz would be a very clever low cost high reward pick up for RB.

 

[benjamin86]

Fabien Centonze of Metz would be a very clever low cost high reward pick up for RB.

I'll read his profile next, i wonder if Paqueta could be an option for us upfront? Our own version of Bobby Firmino?