Premier League 2022/23

[Gooner Zig]

I'm still not that confident, why? Because we got really tricky away games and we've not been in this position for years.

But, we could actually do a madness at Newcastle, Liverpool and City and we got players in Jesus and Zini with experience from title challenges. Our overall play away this season has been a lot better than previous years.

The thing is that we struggle when teams sit back and try go for the counter, we struggled at least with Nketiah in the team. But right now with Trossard and Jesus back, I don't know if I feel confident or not tbh, maybe just scared to believe and not be disappointed later.

We'll see how it ends, let's keep supporting the boys and enjoy the moment.

We have by far the best away form in the league - I'm actually more confident away from home than I am at the Emirates at the moment.

These guys give us a 53% chance of winning the title with City having a 47% chance.

In one model they have us finishing on 87 PTS and City on 86 PTS however in another model they have both of us finishing on 88 PTS.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65013772

I have us ending up 91 pts; I think we can win another 7 games which would allow us a draw and two losses in between.

 

[field442]

These guys give us a 53% chance of winning the title with City having a 47% chance.

In one model they have us finishing on 87 PTS and City on 86 PTS however in another model they have both of us finishing on 88 PTS.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65013772

How the **** can their model only give us a 44% chance of beating West Ham away?

 

[A_G]

How the **** can their model only give us a 44% chance of beating West Ham away?

58% chance to beat Forest una.

538 is clear.

 

[gkoat]

These guys give us a 53% chance of winning the title with City having a 47% chance.

In one model they have us finishing on 87 PTS and City on 86 PTS however in another model they have both of us finishing on 88 PTS.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65013772

Thank you for posting this! I love simulations like this! But wow, I look at this and have more questions than answers. Pumped to see it's giving us the advantage, but when I look at how they got there I think they aren't giving us enough credit!

Literally every 'Win Chance' has City has HUGE favorites with us at a CRAZY disadvantage!

Arsenal, having performed better than City, have a LOWER % chance (54%) of beating 10th place Chelsea at Emirates, than City do of beating 6th place Liverpool at Etihad (61%)

Arsenal, having performed better than City in AWAY games especially & having put up unprecedented London derby winning %, has a lower % chance (44%) to go to 18th place West Ham and win, than City do of going to 9th place Fulham and winning. (68%)

I honestly can't even identify all the crazy advantages they gave City here. It either undderrates us or overrates City but the comparisons here are just completely non-sensible!

Remaining fixtures
Arsenal	Win chance	Man City	Win chance
Leeds (h) 1 April	78%	Liverpool (h) 1 April	61%
		Southampton (a) 8 April	71%
Liverpool (a) 9 April	21%
		Bayern Munich (h - Champions League QF) 11 April
		Leicester (h) 15 April	85%
West Ham (a) 16 April	44%
		Bayern Munich (a - Champions League QF) 19 April
Southampton (h) 21 April	79%
		Sheffield United (FA Cup semi-final) 22/23 April
Man City (a) 26 April	14%	Arsenal (h) 26 April	66%
Chelsea (h) 29 April	54%
		Fulham (a) 30 April	68%
Newcastle (a) 6 May	37%	Leeds (h) 6 May	88%
		Potential CL semi-final 9/10 May
Brighton (h) 13 May	65%	Everton (a) 13 May	68%
		Potential CL semi-final 16/17 May
Nottingham Forest (a) 20 May	58%	Chelsea (h) 20 May	70%
Wolves (h) 28 May	75%	Brentford (a) 28 May	62%
		West Ham (h) TBC	82%
		Brighton (a) TBC	55%
		Potential FA Cup final 3 June
		Potential CL final 10 June

 

[drippin]

There's been way too much focus on City these last few pages: we're on top with an 8 point lead (with an extra game played) so that means we're in control of our destiny.

Sorry to break it to you, but it's weirdly in United's hands.

 

[Gooner Zig]

@gkoat that "win chance" of 44% for West Ham (a) is taking the piss

 

[Synical]

@gkoat that "win chance" of 44% for West Ham (a) is taking the piss
[/QUOTE]

Madness! In previous seasons it was always a fixture I thought could go either way and would usually be high-scoring, but this year? What are they smoking?!

 

[Gooner Zig]

@Synical

We have an incredible record vs West Ham, especially a Moyes managed West Ham. I honestly can't grasp how they've come up with 44% lol

 

[drippin]

@Synical

We have an incredible record vs West Ham, especially a Moyes managed West Ham. I honestly can't grasp how they've come up with 44% lol

Their secret sauce must be Gary Neville making the predictions.

 

[Blood on the Tracks]

538 is clear.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

If i had to i would say we are almost 2 to 1 favorites to win it. That still means we can easily botch it. City has a lot more fixtures and is not as deep as they have been in the past and it is world cup year. They have also been insanely fortunate with injuries. But they are the better more experienced side, they just haven’t quite dominated the way they can and a lot is being asked of them from here on out because of multi competitions. It is a good sign we are overwhelming teams we should. If we get 4 but preferably 5 or 6 points from the 3 tough road fixtures at Anfield, Newcastle and City; then we canter to the thing. We aren’t favorites in any of those three but for this team considering City’s fixtures surrounding that match all three are winnable.

 

[Farzad Stoned]

We got to remember a lot of weaker sides will be hurt, tired, in dissension; with a thinner squad. We bring it like we should against teams we should beat it will require adequate performances against big 3 road fixtures and it will be easy in that rosy but plausible scenario. We just got to take some points where pundits think we can’t but I believe we can

 

[Synical]

I must admit I'm worried about Anfield

The last time we went there in the PL they beat us 4-0 but this was our line-up...

 

[Synical]

Having said that we couldn't score against them at our place either. And what's with the red cards? So we've broken that barrier with our 3-2 win against them this season. And we have Mr Trossard who scored a hat-trick at Anfield

 

[2Smokeyy]

I must admit I'm worried about Anfield

The last time we went there in the PL they beat us 4-0 but this was our line-up...

Thing is they’ve lost their best player in Sadio Mane as he was the one I used to fear the most in their team + our spine will be completely different with Saliba for White, Xhaka in for Lokonga, Ode for Laca and hopefully Jesus/Trossard for Auba.

Hard to draw any similarities based on that performance.

 

[Synical]

Thing is they’ve lost their best player in Sadio Mane as he was the one I used to fear the most in their team + our spine will be completely different with Saliba for White, Xhaka in for Lokonga, Ode for Laca and hopefully Jesus/Trossard for Auba.

Hard to draw any similarities based on that performance.

Arteta seems intimidated by Anfield going by the All Or Nothing documentary. Hopefully he's got over that.

 

[TH14shahriar]

I must admit I'm worried about Anfield

The last time we went there in the PL they beat us 4-0 but this was our line-up...

Lokonga and Tavares, what do you expect

That was the game Tavares were responsible for a goal right? He misplaced a pass I think.

 

[Synical]

Newcastle away will be tricky. They really frustrated us when they came to the Emirates. But I think we've learnt how to handle teams that just turn up to park the bus. Fingers crossed we can get something there.

Out of Anfield, St James' Park and the Etihad I actually feel best about the Etihad. Am I deluded?

 

[Gooner Zig]

Newcastle away will be tricky. They really frustrated us when they came to the Emirates. But I think we've learnt how to handle teams that just turn up to park the bus. Fingers crossed we can get something there.

Out of Anfield, St James' Park and the Etihad I actually feel best about the Etihad. Am I deluded?

Newcastle defensively aren't the same when we faced them at the Carpet. They were at the peak of their powers in defense, they're letting in more goals comparatively and they'll have to go for it with Top 4 on the line. Not worried about that one compared to Anfield and Etihad.

 

[TH14shahriar]

Newcastle away will be tricky. They really frustrated us when they came to the Emirates. But I think we've learnt how to handle teams that just turn up to park the bus. Fingers crossed we can get something there.

Out of Anfield, St James' Park and the Etihad I actually feel best about the Etihad. Am I deluded?

About Newcastle, they're not going to park the bus at home so should be an open game.