Country: England
Bit annoying that we finally gain some consistency against lesser teams in the season where the big six mini-league is going to decide everything.
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Premier League 2018/19: The Fight for a CL Spot
- Thread starter Aevi
- Start date
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Country: England
TornadoTed
Established Member
I also think it's a bit crazy writing United off, they are only 5 points behind us in 4th which isn't a huge amount this early in the season.
Country: Norway
Mourinho is a good digger, just not sure he is digging out or in....
say yes
forum master baiter
Thought it was about time I posted my first weighted league table of the season.
Weighted League Table - GW10
2018/2019, GW10:
City: +7
Liverpool: +4
Sp**s: 0
Arsenal: -3
Chelsea: -4
United: -6
Summary (comparison to table):
Weighted League Table - GW10
If you've not seen one of these before, it essentially weights results against the quality of teams faced. It will be exactly the same as the league table at the end of the season (when everyone has played every team twice), but until then it shows you roughly how well each club is doing given the fixtures played.
A 'champion' is expected to get 89 points: 3/6 points from your rivals; 4/6 from the middling teams; 6/6 from the weaker teams. Doing so would give you 89 points.
2018/2019 rankings:
A 'champion' is expected to get 89 points: 3/6 points from your rivals; 4/6 from the middling teams; 6/6 from the weaker teams. Doing so would give you 89 points.
2018/2019 rankings:
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United, Sp**s
Newcastle, Watford, Brighton, Leicester, Everton
Newcastle (28 home points, 10 from Big 6)
Watford (27 home points, 8 from Big 6)
Brighton (29 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Leicester (27 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Everton (34 home points, 2 from Big 6)
Watford (27 home points, 8 from Big 6)
Brighton (29 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Leicester (27 home points, 7 from Big 6)
Everton (34 home points, 2 from Big 6)
Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Burnley, Watford, Southampton, Huddersfield, Wolves, Fulham, Cardiff
2018/2019, GW10:
City: +7
Liverpool: +4
Sp**s: 0
Arsenal: -3
Chelsea: -4
United: -6
Summary (comparison to table):
- City (especially) and Liverpool are doing better than the table indicates.
- The table really flatters us / Chelsea. We're nowhere near that close to the top two and have both benefited from a very kind fixture schedule so far. It looks more like we'll be fighting each other for 4th with Sp**s slightly ahead in 3rd.
Country: England
I'll just say, after we play City on 02/02/19, the only other games against other top 6 sides are at home to Manchester United and Tottenham away.
That's pretty much three months+ of "winnable" games. If we're sniffing near the top of the table after that game away to City then hopefully it sets us up to secure top 4.
That's pretty much three months+ of "winnable" games. If we're sniffing near the top of the table after that game away to City then hopefully it sets us up to secure top 4.
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Stannis
Well-Known Member
We should beat Sp**s and united at home, and I’d say draw away as well
Feel far better about top 4
Feel far better about top 4
WilshereGone
Active Member
Can't wait for Paul Merson's analysis to be honest.
Showed we can hold our own against a team many tip for the title, and we've been ruthlessly consistent against the lesser teams. I didn't want to have any expectations for this season, but now I'll be very disappointed if we don't get 4th at least.
Showed we can hold our own against a team many tip for the title, and we've been ruthlessly consistent against the lesser teams. I didn't want to have any expectations for this season, but now I'll be very disappointed if we don't get 4th at least.
Can’t tell if La Liga is weird or PL is weird, but something is very weird this season - we have as many points as Barca.
Notorious Big
Drunka In Friend Zone
Finally La Liga became more competitive than EPL.
It's not. Liverpool have only taken 3 points out of 9 in 3 draws against City, Arsenal and Chelsea and are sitting in 2nd right now, while Arsenal have taken 1 of 9 in the exact same match ups. That's just 2 points difference, still we're 6 points off of them. Thing is: Liverpool have won all of their other games against lesser team, while we just dropped 4 points against Wolverhampton and Palace. These 4 points could have taken us on par with Chelsea and just 2 behind Liverpool. Chelsea got 5/9 against Liverpool, Utd and Arsenal, gaining a little more than us and Kloppo's men, but drawing against Everton and West Ham - and those 4 points dropped by them would take them on par with City at the top of the league.
All other results staying the same, a win against Chelsea - a big six game - would have taken us to 27 points. Still losing against Chelsea but winning at Wolves and Palace would have taken us to 28 points.
You have to get some points against the big teams, but it's still very much about beating the lesser teams and we're still less consistent in that than City, Chelsea and Liverpool no matter the misleading winning run we've had.
say yes
forum master baiter
The way City are going you pretty much have to beat everyone!
They're just 2 point ahead of Liverpool and drew against them and Wolves. That just mean Liverpool win the direct duel and they are 1st. They didn't beat everyone. Liverpool win any of their big games apart from the City draw and they're level. Just beat the lesser sides and you're in. You have to beat the lesser sides.
Mark Tobias
Mr. Agreeable
You'd think people would know this when we've finished outside the top 4... only just, and it was a direct result of dropping points we should have picked up.
Yep, it's pretty clear, too.
Liverpool got 6/12 points against Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and City - which is pretty much average and in no way a stellar haul against top teams. But they won every other single game against smaller sides and it took them to 2nd within 2 points of City. So they win only one of Chelsea, Arsenal or City by a bit of luck and they're league leaders. What's taken them into this position is not a string of great performances agaisnt the top 6, it's their consistency in winning against anyone else.
Same goes for Chelsea. They got 5/9 against Arsenal, Liverpool and Utd, which is just 0.5 points more than half and similar to Liverpool's top six haul as of yet. Even if they win against Utd, taking them to 7/9 points against top six which is arguably a good result, they only have 2 points more which only takes them into 2nd level with 'pool. But if they don't drop 4 points in draws against Everton and West Ham, they're on par with City.
Same goes for Arsenal btw. 1/9 against City, Chelsea and Liverpool of course is not enough, but don't drop 4 points against Palace and Wolves and you're on 28 points on par with unbeaten Chelsea and ahead of Tottenham.
So it's very much the small team wins that matter.
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Country: Iceland
There is a reason to be positive though no? We are keeping up with them when we are actually not playing all that well, we have a couple of gears in us. Maybe we will be on our way up when hopefully some of the teams above us drop off(at least points wise)!
Gunner140
Active Member
I think its way to early to speculate the top 4 places, but I think we will have to fight for 4th place finish against Tottenham.
Marmaduke
Well-Known Member
Top 4 would be a great achievement by Emery his first season given how competitive the top 6 are this year. Just hope that we don't lose any of the optimism if we don't make it.
Mark Tobias
Mr. Agreeable
I think we'll sneak it. Will be tight.
ptrcopp
Well-Known Member
As well as this, in the last couple of seasons smaller teams in La Liga have begun doing what the smaller clubs here have been doing for ages: parking the bus, not worrying about committing more than 3/4 players forward.
I remember watching it a few years ago and Barca would walk the easy teams because there would be space as the other teams would attack them. Now when I watch it Barca are up against a 6-8 man line on the 18 yard.
It also doesn’t help that Barca and RM have become v one dimensional, esp in La Liga.
ptrcopp
Well-Known Member
I agree re Allison. Like all ball-playing GK he had a tough time at the start, but has settled well.
But to me Van Dijk always looks like he is on the edge of a massive ****-up. And I think his pace makes up for that a lot. I’ve only caught a couple of Liverpool games this season, but he was bailed out by Gomez and Robertson a few times in those.
Sky named him MOTM against us, which I thought was strange, because he was partially at fault for our goal. And we were pretty impotent.
He’s obviously a great CB, but I have yet to see a Liverpool game where I’ve thought he looks like the most expensive one ever.
